Manitoba election 2016

[adma]

Lots of retired NDP incumbents?

[Hatman 🍁]

I know this is called the "Atlas" Forum, but why all the interest in maps.  To quote Rita Johnson in her 1991 debate with Mike Harcourt (and Gordon Wilson) "we want the numbers, Mike."

And just like Mike Harcourt was back then, anybody who doesn't provide the numbers is "gutless."

Of course, if you disagree with me on this, that would just be "another classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the legislature Atlas Forum." 

This is an Atlas forum. If you don't like election maps, you can leave

Trend:

Anyone know what's up with the east-west difference in Winnipeg? Normally I think of Winnipeg as having more of a north-south division.

As mentioned, retiring incumbents have something to do with it, but also the east end of Winnipeg has been trending to the right federally as well (remember when Elmwood-Transcona unexpectedly went Conservative in 2011?) I suspect it's suburbanizing somewhat (though the area of Winnipeg that is expanding is in the SW which actually trended to the NDP), or wealthier people are moving in? Perhaps someone in Manitoba can answer this question better.

[136or142]

I know this is called the "Atlas" Forum, but why all the interest in maps.  To quote Rita Johnson in her 1991 debate with Mike Harcourt (and Gordon Wilson) "we want the numbers, Mike."

And just like Mike Harcourt was back then, anybody who doesn't provide the numbers is "gutless."

Of course, if you disagree with me on this, that would just be "another classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the legislature Atlas Forum." 

This is an Atlas forum. If you don't like election maps, you can leave

Trend:

Anyone know what's up with the east-west difference in Winnipeg? Normally I think of Winnipeg as having more of a north-south division.

As mentioned, retiring incumbents have something to do with it, but also the east end of Winnipeg has been trending to the right federally as well (remember when Elmwood-Transcona unexpectedly went Conservative in 2011?) I suspect it's suburbanizing somewhat (though the area of Winnipeg that is expanding is in the SW which actually trended to the NDP), or wealthier people are moving in? Perhaps someone in Manitoba can answer this question better.

I assumed it was due to their being a lot of working class right wing types in the area.  Elmwood-Transcona was also very close in the 2015 Federal election.

[136or142]

1.Despite losing his seat, Steve Ashton is apparently considering a third run for the leadership of the NDP. I saw Andrew Coyne retweet that earlier today.

2.http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/30/after-ndp-loss-in-manitoba-election-flor-marcelino-in-line-to-become-interim-leader.html

3.Cabinet Prediction.  Pallister has said it will be a 12 member cabinet, I'm not sure if that includes him or not, though.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Brian Pallister
2.Finance/Deputy Premier, Heather Stefanson
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Reg Hewler
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development/Northern Affairs Ralph Eichler
5.Natural Resources and Mines/Energy, Cameron Friesen
6.Conservation and Water Stewardship, Steven Fletcher
7.Transportation and Public Works, Eileen Clarke
8.Children and Family Services/Human Resources and Housing, Ian Wishart
9.Education and Advanced Learning,  Wayne Ewasko
10.Health/Status of Women, Myrna Driedger
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal Relations, Scott Fielding
12.Justice and Public Safety/Labour and Immigration/Consumer Services Kelvin Goertzen

Not familiar enough with the party to know who the Government House Leader will be or who will be elected Speaker.

Pallister has said that he thinks most of the newly elected MLAs will need to get experience in the legislature before they should be considered for cabinet, so don't expect gender parity.  Also, the new P.C caucus consists of 32 men and 8 women.  Eileen Clarke is the only P.C woman elected in all of rural Manitoba, but I actually think she's likely to get into the cabinet because other than Reg Hewler who is MLA for a Brandon riding, and not a rural riding, the only other incumbent P.C in "Westman" is Cliff Cullen, and I think she'd make a better cabinet minister than him.  Also, Cliff Cullen's name is too similar to Cliff Claven from 'Cheers' and that guy was a total loser.  


The only other non incumbents are Steven Fletcher who was an M.P from 2004-2015 and a Minister of State for part of that time, and Scott Fielding who was a Winnipeg City Councillor and chair of its Finance Committee for a time (just like Greg Selinger was.)

[adma]

As mentioned, retiring incumbents have something to do with it, but also the east end of Winnipeg has been trending to the right federally as well (remember when Elmwood-Transcona unexpectedly went Conservative in 2011?) I suspect it's suburbanizing somewhat (though the area of Winnipeg that is expanding is in the SW which actually trended to the NDP), or wealthier people are moving in? Perhaps someone in Manitoba can answer this question better.

I assumed it was due to their being a lot of working class right wing types in the area.  Elmwood-Transcona was also very close in the 2015 Federal election.

If Winnipeg worked like 2014-mayoral-race Toronto, the east end would be more Doug Ford-leaning, the "traditionally PC" west end (i.e. ex-Filmon, currently Pallister) would go for John Tory.  (And I guess the Ford-friendly hinterland would also extend into the ethnically-tinged "Lamoureux NW" as well--come to think of it, Lib-wise, "Gerrard = Tory, Lamoureux = Ford" pretty much captures it.  In which case, Rana Bokhari = Chow?  Or maybe more Barbara Hall 2003...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But the swings in two of the divisions in the federal Elmwood-Transcona division were at the lower end and the class division in Winterpeg is historically North/South rather than East/West. Of course the numbers aren't greatly different for most of the more suburban ridings so maybe its just one of those weird cases where a pattern is created in the act of mapping.

[Hatman 🍁]

But the swings in two of the divisions in the federal Elmwood-Transcona division were at the lower end and the class division in Winterpeg is historically North/South rather than East/West. Of course the numbers aren't greatly different for most of the more suburban ridings so maybe its just one of those weird cases where a pattern is created in the act of mapping.

The swing in Transcona was quite large (but not in the rest of Elmwood-Transcona), but that has more to do with a lack of incumbent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The swing in Transcona was quite large (but not in the rest of Elmwood-Transcona), but that has more to do with a lack of incumbent.

Yes the swing pattern in the E-T riding rather neatly fits in with relative suburbanness (though as you say that's basically a coincidence).

[trebor204]

Polls by Polls results:


http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ENR

[136or142]

Myrna Driedger is going to be elected as the Speaker.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Brian Pallister
2.Finance/Deputy Premier, Heather Stefanson
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Colleen Mayer
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development/Northern Affairs Ralph Eichler
5.Natural Resources and Mines/Energy, Reg Hewler
6.Conservation and Water Stewardship, Steven Fletcher
7.Transportation and Public Works, Eileen Clarke
8.Children and Family Services/Human Resources and Housing, Ian Wishart
9.Education and Advanced Learning,  Cameron Friesen
10.Health/Status of Women, Cliff Graydon
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal Relations, Scott Fielding
12.Justice and Public Safety/Labour and Immigration/Consumer Services Kelvin Goertzen

Colleen Mayer was an executive assistant for a city councillor, a school trustee for the Louis-Riel School Division and Executive Director Old St Vital Improvement Zone.  She would also be the only cabinet minister for the traditional P.C area of Southern Winnipeg.

[trebor204]

New Cabinet sworn in:

Who's in Pallister’s cabinet

Heather Stefanson (Tuxedo): Justice and attorney general, deputy premier
Eileen Clarke (Agassiz): Indigenous and municipal relations
Cathy Cox (River East): Sustainable development
Blaine Pedersen (Midland): Infrastructure
Cliff Cullen (Spruce Woods): Growth, enterprise and trade
Scott Fielding (Kirkfield Park): Families
Cameron Friesen (Morden-Winkler): Finance
Ralph Eichler (Lakeside): Agriculture
Kelvin Goertzen (Steinbach): Health, seniors and active living
Ian Wishart (Portage la Prairie): Education and training
Rochelle Squires (Riel): Sport, culture and heritage and minister responsible for francophone affairs
Ron Schuler (St. Paul): Crown Services
Brian Pallister (Fort Whyte): Intergovernmental affairs and international relations

[Hatman 🍁]

Fletcher is out? Jeez...

[136or142]

Reg Hewler didn't get in the cabinet either and nor did the new MLA for Thompson.  Some speculated that the only P.C MLA from a northern riding would get in the cabinet.  

I predicted 7 of the 12 correct ministers (excluding Pallister) though only Ralph Eichler in the correct portfolio.

Heather Stefanson gets the Justice Ministry even though she is not a lawyer.  I think Pallister pulled a Cullen Clavin on that one.

From wiki:
Peter Wayner from InfoWorld defined "pulling a Clavin" as a reference to Cliff Clavin's wagering all his leading score and then losing all to a zero in the Final Jeopardy! round and as a tactic to avoid in Jeopardy![11] In the Jeopardy! fan community, the episode gave rise to what is known as "Clavin's Rule" (or "pulling a Cliff Clavin"), a rule of thumb that states that a player should not wager enough to endanger a "lock" or "runaway" game (one where the first-place player has more than twice the score of the second-place player), no matter how tempting the category.

Are those the full ministry titles?  If so, not only is there no longer a ministry of Transportation (presumably part of 'Infrastructure',)  there's no ministry of environment/conservation.

I guess that's part of the ministry of 'Sustainable Development' though that would be a huge ministry encompassing environment, natural resources, mines and energy, though I guess Manitoba Hydro is part of the Ministry of Crown Services.

[trebor204]

Some fallout following the election:

Liberal Rana Bokhari is stepping down (Will stay as interim leader)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/rana-bokhari-steps-down-liberal-party-leader-manitoba-1.3572299

NDP: Flor Marcelino is now the interim leaded of the NDP party:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/flor-marcelino-interim-leader-manitoba-ndp-1.3572019