California and Texas Tipping Points

[ElectionsGuy]

Do these look right?

[Skill and Chance]

I think you have too many counties flipping in both cases.  The Republican path in CA involves closing either L.A. or the Bay Area from 70/30 back to 60/40 more than anything else.  The Democratic path in Texas involves massive Hispanic turnout and probably requires an oil crash.  So it would be mainly about shifting the populated parts of West Texas and the Houston/Dallas suburbs from 70/30 back to 60/40. 

[Sbane]

I would flip San Benito in California. It is usually a great bellwether for the state.

[Nyvin]

In California it's especially hard to tell because the difference of winning LA county 60/40 or 70/30 is so much more massive than winning 2-3 other smaller counties.   

Texas is probably a bit more accurate though.

[Skill and Chance]

In California it's especially hard to tell because the difference of winning LA county 60/40 or 70/30 is so much more massive than winning 2-3 other smaller counties.   

Texas is probably a bit more accurate though.

I'm just not sure about all those Austin exurbs flipping.  Similar to CA, it might be easier for a strong Dem to get to 60/40 in Harris, 65/35 in Dallas, and 70/30 in Travis than to win some of those near 60% Romney counties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Texas is really hard to tell, because Democrats there haven't won a statewide election in 25 years.

California seems about right.

[Adam Griffin]

This is what I have in mind for Texas. Our maps are identical except for the Austin metro. This map produces a 35,000-vote or so margin of victory for the Democrat. Keep in mind that the map's likelihood of becoming a shade lighter/darker (and also, the number of voters you need to close the gap) depends on whether you're projecting such a scenario from persuasion of existing voters or turning out new voters.

For instance:
D: 10,200 (53.96%)
R: 8,700 (46.04%)

Add 2,500 D (first-time) voters:
D: 12,700 (59.34%)
R: 8,700 (40.66%)

Flip 2,500 R voters to D:
D: 12,700 (67.19%)
R: 6,200 (32.81%)

Flipping somebody is worth twice as much as turning a new person out, and in some counties, will be a whole hell of a lot more realistic. In TX, a realistic scenario would be heavily focused on turning out first-time voters. In reality, it's always going to be a mixture of the two.