Pew polls "% chance you would vote for [NAME]"
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  Pew polls "% chance you would vote for [NAME]"
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Author Topic: Pew polls "% chance you would vote for [NAME]"  (Read 1352 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 07, 2015, 01:52:59 AM »

Pew polls the % chance that Dems would vote for the following candidates:

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/02/campaign-2016-modest-interest-high-stakes/



And the same for Republicans:



And for all registered voters:



The GOP field is rather crowded, as 7 different candidates have >20% of GOP voters saying there's a "good chance" they'll support them.  There were only two such candidates in each of the previous three contested GOP nomination battles, at a similar time in the campaign:



Meanwhile, on the Dem. side, Clinton's 59% compares to her 52% in February 2007:


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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2015, 02:05:59 AM »

Hillary only outpacing her Feb. 2007 standing by 7 points. So much for the 'she's polling SO much better than in 2007!!!!!!!!!!" narrative.

Run Biden Run!
Run Warren Run!
Run Sanders Run!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2015, 02:11:57 AM »

Hillary only outpacing her Feb. 2007 standing by 7 points. So much for the 'she's polling SO much better than in 2007!!!!!!!!!!" narrative.

Run Biden Run!
Run Warren Run!
Run Sanders Run!

Yeah, so much for that narrative!




Oops.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2015, 02:14:17 AM »

There is no reason for Joe Biden not to run, and no doubt he would be a help to Hillary. He'd never go beyond a certain polling range, he'd make her do debate prep, and he wouldn't bloody her up too badly because he genuinely likes her and her him. There's no downside.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2015, 05:37:19 AM »

Who are those 2% who haven't heard of Hillary? Lol.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2015, 03:14:37 PM »

Who are those 2% who haven't heard of Hillary? Lol.

People with amnesia or alzheimers? Or who accidentally click the wrong button?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2015, 04:04:35 PM »

42% of Republicans have never heard of the Republican leading or tied in most national polls right now! That's even more than the % of Republicans who would not consider voting for Christie, though just barely.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2015, 06:04:01 PM »

42% of Republicans have never heard of the Republican leading or tied in most national polls right now! That's even more than the % of Republicans who would not consider voting for Christie, though just barely.

It would be fun to see the full details of the equivalent poll for this from 2003.  Only Clinton and Gore topped 20% in the "good chance I'll vote for them" and they weren't running.  But just how low was the name recognition of the rest of the field?  1991 would also be interesting, with everyone with decent name recognition not running.
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2015, 10:21:25 PM »

Who are those 2% who haven't heard of Hillary? Lol.

The happy few.
I feel a certain admiration for those who manage to get by with such little knowledge of national politics. It shouldn't be too surprising really that these people exist, even if the media saturated age we live in tends to make them fewer than might have been in another.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2015, 06:44:52 AM »

More likely it's people who misheard the question, or who were too hung over to think about it. (FiveThirtyEight estimated that 2% of workers are hungover on any given day. Would that share be even higher for respondents to telephone polls?)
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