How will the right react if this happens?

[Devils30]

Clinton 48.5% - 270 EV
Rubio 50%- 268 EV

Hillary wins Virginia by 3,000 votes after being down nearly the whole night. Rubio makes inroads with working class whites, wins OH, FL, CO, IA and narrowly loses WI. Virginia's Democratic trend is just too much for the GOP and Hillary pulls it out narrowly.

[Devils30]

I don't think this entirely unrealistic either. Let's say the GOP improves with Hispanics and Hillary continues to play somewhat weakly in the west. Nevada's demographics make it tough for the GOP even with Hillary slipping and Rubio manages to win Colorado by a point or so. He carries Florida by a couple points, squeaks out Ohio and Iowa by a couple but falls short in Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Virginia does not have a huge number of Hispanics, it saves Hillary with white- professional women in NoVA.

[Devils30]

I think Colorado would most likely go Democratic with these states but the map is not out of the realm of probability.

[Devils30]

The 2014 Senate race in Virginia leads to think it could happen. On the surface it looks like the GOP had a strong showing there, a closer look suggests otherwise. The total vote number was DOWN about 200,000 from 2006 to 2014 and yet Warner still survived despite abysmal turnout. He lost Loudoun County and barely cracked 50% in Prince William, yet still won. It's tough to see Clinton getting less than 55% in Prince William with the U.S. Census numbers. Warner ran stronger in Appalachia than Obama but it was still only something in between Obama 2008 and 2012. In other words, Warner witnessed a Democratic turnout collapse and loss of support among whites, yet still managed to pull out a victory.

Hillary can make up running worse in that area pretty easily with better turnout in the cities. Southern Virginia also looked quite similar in all the 2012, 2013, 2014 races. It is extremely inelastic and you can pretty much book Hillary for something in between 48-51% in Chesapeake, 46-48% in Dinwiddie etc. If the GOP doesn't reverse trends in Henrico, Fairfax, Hillary is winning the state.

[Devils30]

I do think the national media is too focused on Ohio and Florida. If Hillary carries Virginia it puts the GOP in an impossible spot without either WI, NH or PA.