Nigeria Governorship and State Assembly elections - April 11, 2015

[politicus]

Thought we should have a thread as a follow up on the GE.

http://www.ibtimes.com/nigeria-elections-2015-gubernatorial-contests-could-make-or-break-fragile-democracy-1873051



How it looked before the election:



The current distribution of governorships is:

PDP 21 (1 ex-Labour)
APC 14
APGA 1
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_state_governors_of_Nigeria

29 of 36 governors are up for election. APC should be able to pick up a handful, but PDP has a good chance of taking ACP stronghold Lagos.

Governors are limited to two four year terms, which means a lot of open contests as it is sixteen years since the introduction of democracy, so many of the second batch are term limited and 18 states will have vacant seats - and 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters in Nigeria. The governors distribute federally allocated resources and are in charge of security and policy development. So in many ways wield significant power.

[politicus]

Three huge states have open gubernatorial races: Lagos, Kano and Rivers. All with outgoing APC governors. Two of whom deserted from PDP in 2013.

Lagos has 21 million inhabitants and is Africa's most populous city (with more people than many African countries) and its GDP at $91 billion dwarfs a relatively big country like Kenya's  $55 billion. Lagos is an APC stronghold and one of its constituent parties, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), have ruled Lagos since 1999. The states former Attorney General Yemi Osinbajo is Buhari’s VP. Incumbent Lagos Governor Babatunde Fashola is term limited and Lagos's next governor will most likely be APC candidate Akinwunmi Ambode – a veteran political operator from former Governor Tinubu’s successful administration, where the VP also served. He is facing fellow Christian and businessman Jimi Agbaje, who joined PDP in 2011 after having been around several other parties. In 2011 the ACN won 81% of the vote, but Igbos voting for Johnathan made the presidential result close and they are mad at Fashola for deporting several thousand of their kinsmen, so there could be an anti-APC backlash - also some threats issued against the Igbos by ACP.

Kano is Nigeria's second most populous state with over 10 million residents and the commercial center of northern Nigeria. State politics are competitive and since 1999, two political strongmen have battled for control: outgoing Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who served 1999-2003 and won a comeback in 2011; and former governor Ibrahim Shekarau, who defeated Kwankwaso in 2003 on a pledge to strengthen Islamic law in the state and then narrowly won a second term in 2007. Kwankwaso won as a PDP candidate, but defected to APC in 2013, along with three other northern governors who fell out with the president Johnathan. Shekarau then left APC to become Jonathan's Minister of Education! Both Kwankwaso and Shekarau are term-limited, so the 2015 election will be a proxy fight: current Deputy Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (APC) will face Shekarau’s hand picked candidate Salihu Takai (PDP). Kano's election should be close. Kwankwaso beat Takai in 2011 with only 49% of the vote.

The winner will be charged with protecting the state from attacks by Boko Haram and leading a revival of northern economy, particularly youth unemployment (also a security element as jobless youth is easier to radicalize). Kano is a frontrunner when it comes to implementing Islamic law: Shekarau used it to censor films and separate genders on public transportation, Kwankwaso used it to promote mass marriages of widows and divorcees, and both have used it to limit alcohol and prostitution. It is hard to see a difference between the parties on this, but Takai might be a bit more radical.

Rivers is the key state in the oil-producing Niger Delta with nearly seven million inhabitants. It's capital Port Harcourt is a major industrial city. Outgoing Governor Rotimi Amaechi left PDP in 2013 due to bad blood between Amaechi and first lady Patience Johnathan, who is from Rivers. Amaechi’s exit caused violent riots and threats from the national police against him. The election will pit Amaechi’s former chief of staff Nyesom Wike (PDP) against Representative Dakuku Peterside, a current Amaechi ally. Amaechi won with 86% in 2011, but the question is whether his popularity will transfer to Peterside without the PDP label. The Delta is Goodluck Jonathan's home territory and if APC wins Rivers could see bloodshed from disappointed PDP loyalists expecting revenge over Amaechi.

[politicus]

Other interesting races:

There is an open race in the highland state of Plateau in central Nigeria - site of recurring Muslim-Christian violence. It is about the size of Belgium and with over 4 million inhabitants belonging to 52 ethnic groups, making it one of the most diverse states in Nigeria. Both candidates are Christian academics and in their 50s. Outgoing PDP Governor Jonah Jang is term limited.

The APC candidate is former Speaker of the State House of Assembly Simon Lalong. His running mate is a former Vice Chancellor of the University of Josnny Tyoden. His PDP opponent is Senator Gyang Pwajok with former Commissioner for Lands and Survey Yiji Gomwalk as his running mate.
Labour, African Democratic Congress and the Social Democratic Party are also fielding candidates

Pawjok is an economist from the north and belongs to Church of Christ in Nigeria, while Lalong is a Catholic lawyer from the south. On paper Pawjok is the favourite as the state has been run by PDP since 1999 and he has the support of the outgoing governor, who anointed him as successor. He has served as Director of Research and Development in the governors administration and later
Chief of Staff to Jang before his election to the Senate in 2012 following the death of the former occupant. But a lot of people in his own party would like to see him lose as he defeated some prominent people in the primary, incl. former governor Fidelis Tapgun, and broke the rotation arrangements that have been in practice with the governorship rotating among the South, Central and Northern senatorial districts. Pwajok is a Berom from the north like the outgoing governor.

He is being fought by a group of PDP elders called the Equity and Justice group and led by former state chairman of the party Dakun Shown, as well as a youth group called Concerned Plateau Youth Vanguard. This internal backlash might give ACP a shot at the governorship.

- In Kaduna with 1,2 mio. people in central Nigeria former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and APC Deputy National Secretary Mallam Nasir el-Rufai is running for APC. The death of the sitting governor in 2012 caused riots and there is a tradition for political violence in the mixed Christian/Muslim state where the implementation of Sharia is a source of conflict. El-Rufai will pose a serious challenge to incumbent PDP Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, who is seeking a second term and running on a continuity and consolidation message and APC will likely get a large share of the Christian vote in this all-Muslim race.

- In Adamawa along the Cameroon border and with 5 million inhabitants the governor was impeached in July 2014 by Jonathan. The state is a target of ongoing Boko Haram attacks, has been in a state of emergency since 2013 and is one of the poorest and most mismanaged states. PDP is running a heavyweight - former anti-corruption chief and Action Congress presidential candidate in 2011 Nuhu Ribadu and the outcome is considered the most important in the northeast. Incumbent PDP Governor James Ngilari took over in 2014, but was barred from running by his party because he is from the north and their zoning rotation required a candidate from the central district. APC is fielding Senator Bindowo Jibrilla, who was elected for PDP in 2011. Both are Muslims and Fulbe. Jibrilla has been a close ally of outgoing Senate President David Mark and Defence Minister Aliyu Gusau, who were both seen as weak and inefficient in combating Boko Haram and this damages his security credentials and Ribadu's reputation as corruption fighter will probably sway some voters in a state even more plagued by endemic corruption and godfatherism than usual in Nigeria, but Ngilari supporters in the north may prefer Jibrilla anyway. This actually seems like a competence vs. ethnic loyalty race.

[politicus]

Preliminary results from several wards.

http://www.naij.com/tag/elections-2015.html

Akinwunmi Ambode (APC) seems to be winning in Lagos.

[politicus]

Offcial results from some states, the rest should follow tomorrow.

South West

Akinwunmi Ambode (APC) beats Jimi Agbaje (PDP) is Lagos.

APC – 811,994
PDP – 659,788
AD – 6,087

Oyo state governor, Abiola Ajimobi (APC) gets a second term. Decent result for Labour.

APC – 327,310
Accord – 254,520
Labour – 184,111
PDP – 79,019

Ibikunle Amosun (APC) wins in Ogun:

APC – 306,988
PDP – 201,440
SocDem – 25,826


South South

Emmanuel Udom Gabriel (PDP) wins big in Akwa Ibom:

PDP – 996,071
APC – 89,865
Labour – 86,000


South East

Engr Dave Umahi (PDP) wins in Ebonyi.

PDP – 289,867
Labour – 124,817
APC – 27,583

Ugwuanyi Ifeanyi Lawrence (PDP) is the winner in Enugu:

PDP – 482,277
APC – 43,839
APGA – 3,303


North West

Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal (APC) is the new Governor in Sokoto:

APC – 647,609
PDP – 269,074

Aminu Bello Masari (APC) snatch the governorship from PDP in Katsina:

APC – 943,085
PDP – 476,768
APGA – 42,302

Nasir El-Rufai (APC) convincingly beats Mukhtar Ramalan Yero (PDP) in troubled Kaduna.

APC – 1,117,635
PDP – 485,833
APGA – 20,140

North East

Mohammed Abubakar (APC) wins in Bauchi:

APC – 654,934
PDP – 282,650

Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo (PDP) retains the top job in Gombe:

PDP – 285,369
APC – 205,132

[politicus]

7-4 to ACP so far - incl. the big one in Lagos. Third parties doing okay a couple of places.

[politicus]

North Central

Governor Umaru Almakura (APC) defeats Labaran Maku (APGA) in Nasarawa. PDP relegated to third place:

APC – 309,746
APGA – 178,983
PDP – 119,782


Chief Samuel Ortom (APC) beats Terhemen Tarzor (PDP) in Benue.

APC – 422,932
PDP –  313,878


Abubakar Sani Bello (APC) wins Niger state.

APC –  593,702
PDP –  239,772


Simon Bako Lalong (APC) wins Plateau:

APC – 564,913
PDP – 520,627


Governor Abdul Fatah Ahmed (APC) defeats Senator Simeon Ajibola (PDP) in Kwara:

APC – 295,832
PDP – 115,220
Labour – 2,973


South South

Senator Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa (PDP) crushes Chief Great Ogboru (Labour) in Delta State:

PDP – 724,680
Labour – 130,028
APC – 67,825


Prof. Ben Ayade (PDP) wins he governorship election in Cross River State:

PDP – 342,016
APC – 53,983
Labour – 36,918.

Nyesom Wike (PDP) was reelected as governor-elect in Rivers State in a landslide election. If this is not foul play (and it may be) it is pretty impressive.

PDP – 1, 029,102
APC – 124,896


South East

The  results of governorship election in Abia state is stalemated following the reversal of the cancellation of three local governments results by the Returning Officer. Looks like this is going to the courts.

Rochas Okorocha from ACP beats Chukwuemeka Ihedioha (PDP) in Imo, but PDP will not accept the outcome.

APC – 392,093
PDP – 307,197

INEC has declared the Imo state election inconclusive. The areas where results were cancelled due to security concernes have a voting population of about 144,000, which is higher than the difference between APC and PDP. Not sure what they will do.$


North West

Abdulaziz Yari (APC) has been re-elected as governor of Zamfara.

APC – 716,964
PDP – 201,938
APGA – 2,385

Kano State Deputy Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje (ACP) has defeated Salihu Takaihas from PDP by a large margin.

APC –  1,546,434
PDP – 509,726


Abubakar Badaru (APC) is the new governor in Jigawa - under PDP control since 1999.

APC – 648,045
PDP – 479,447


Senator Atiku Bagudu (APC) wins in Kebbi:

APC – 477,376
PDP – 293,443


North East

Mohammed Umar Jibrilla Bindow (APC) has won in Adamawa:

APC – 362,329
SocDem – 181,80
PDP – 98,917.

Kashim Shettima, the APC governorship candidate has "a comfortable lead" in Borno.

Darius Dickson Ishaku (PDP) is ahead in the governorship election in Taraba with result from one Local Government outstanding.


Governor Ibrahim Gaidam  (APC) got re-elected in Yobe:

APC – 334,847
PDP – 179,700

[politicus]

So status in the South is:

South West:

APC: 3 (Lagos, Oyo, Ogun)
PDP: 0

South South:

APC: 0
PDP: 4 (Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross River, Rivers)

South East:

APC: 0 (but leads in Imo)
PDP: 2 (Enugu, Ebonyi)
Undecided: 2 (Abia, Imo)

Total:

APC: 3
PDP: 6
Undecided: 2

[politicus]

Status in the North is:

North Central:

APC: 5 (Nasarawa,  Benue, Niger, Plateau, Kwara)
PDP: 0


North West:

APC: 7 (Sokoto, Katsina, Kaduna, Zanafara, Kano, Jigawa, Kebbi)
PDP: 0


North East:

APC: 3 (Bauchi, Adamawa, Yobe, Borno)
PDP: 2 (Gombe)
New election: 1 (Taraba)

Total:

ACP: 16
PDP: 1
Rematch: 1

[politicus]

So:

APC: 19
PDP: 7

And Abia, Imo and Taraba unknown.

APC replaces PDP as the dominant party. It would have been better with a slighly larger number of PDP governors, so a stable two party system could develop, but they are still around.

[politicus]

The governors in the seven states with no 2015 elections are:

Anambra - Willie Obiano (APGA) SE

Bayelsa - Henry Seriake Dickson (PDP) SS
Ekiti - Ayo Fayose (PDP) SW
Kogi - Idris Wada (PDP) NC
Ondo - Olusegun Mimiko (PDP) SW

Edo - Adams Oshiomhole (APC) SS
Osun - Rauf Aregbesola (APC) SW

So 4 PDP, 2 APC and 1 APGA. Six of those states are in the South (SE: Anambra; SS: Bayelsa, Edo; SW: Ekiti, Ondo, Osun) and Kogi is in the southern part of central Nigeria.  

APC will have 22-23 governors, PDP 11-12, APGA 1-2.

[politicus]

State assembly elections looking a bit bleak, several state with no opposition at all!

North West

Kano: APC won all 40 seats in the State House of Assembly.

Katsina: APC has won all 33 seats in the State House of Assembly.

Zamfara state: APC has won all 25 seats in the State House of Assembly.

Sokoto: APC has won all 30 State House of Assembly.

Partial results:

Kaduna: APC has swept all 11 State House of Assembly seats from Northern Kaduna Senatorial District.

So zero PDP or othr opposition representation in the North West so far.


South East

Anambra: APGA has won in all the 25 constituencies whose results were announced.
INEC has postponed the polls in four constituencies: Ekwusigo, Anaocha 1 and 11, and Aguata due to violence that stalled the conduct of the elections in the areas. The rescheduled elections in the affected constituencies will be held on April 18, 2015.


South West

Oyo:

APC 18
Accord Party 8
Labour 6
PDP 0
Undelcared 1

Ogun:

APC 17  
PDP 9

Ondo:

PDP 19 out of the 26 assembly seats while
APC 5

Results of two seats in Ilaje Local Government Constituency 1 and 2 yet to be declared due to violence.

Ekiti:

PDP 25

Ilejemeje constituency is still on hold over the crisis resulting from ballot snatching and attacks on INEC officials.

Lagos

APC 13
(one of them is Nollywood star Desmond Elliot)
PDP 6

North Central

Niger: APC has the won the four constituencies (Shiroro, Chanchaga, Bida I and Bida II) so far released.

Plateau:

APC has won one seat - the rest has not been declared.

Kwara state: Two APC candidates ave won seats in the Kwara House of Assembly.

Benue:

PDP 14  
APC 9
Labour 1
Undeclared 7

Kogi state:

PDP 12
APC 7
Five state constituencies "inconclusive", while elections were not held in one state constituency due to security reasons.

North East

Gombe:

PDP 14  
APC 9  
The only pending result is Kwami East constituency, where election was cancelled due to election violence.

Bauchi:

APC 28
PDP 2
Peoples Democratic Movement 1

Yobe:

APC 22
PDP 2

South South

Delta:

PDP 6
Social Democratic Party (SDP) 1

Bayelsa:

PDP 13
The rest is a mess: Elections in 8 constituencies were rescheduled by a week due to shortage of ballot papers.
There was no election in Brass Constituency 2 due to the insistence of some youth to see the ward collation results sheets before accreditation.
The election in Ogbia Constituency 2 was declared inconclusive.
That leaves one of the 24 constitutencies unaccounted for, but PDP majority anyway.

Edo:

APC 21
PDP 3


Cross River state:

PDP 23  
The results for the remainig two constituencies (Biase and Yakurr 2) were declared inconclusive.

All in all pretty bad after the rather successful presidential elections. The danger is that APC becomes the new PDP. Still, some state have competitive politics.

Also many irregularities, but less than usual.

[politicus]

Nigeria might still get its first female Governor as Aisha Al-Hassan (APC) is still in the running in Taraba, where the election has been declared inconclusive:

"INEC Returning Officer for the election, Professor Muhammad Kariey, said there has to be a supplementary election because the total number of votes rejected and cancelled were more than the total votes with which the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Darius Ishaku, led the runner-up, the All Progressives Congress’ Aisha Al-Hasan."

According to the returning officer the difference between the PDP and the APC is 54,881, while the rejected votes from some troubled areas are over 100, 000

A female Muslim governor in the North will of course have great symbolic value, and she seemed very competent as well (former AG, businesswoman and Senator). There were nationwide celebrations when she looked to be ahead early on, but in the end Darius Ishaku (PDP) finished ahead of her with 326,198 to 262, 381.

http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/181412-update-mama-taraba-still-in-race-as-inec-declares-taraba-governorship-poll-inconclusive.html

Rematch within 30 days. Best of luck Mama Taraba!

[politicus]

So status for the four undecided races:

- New elections in Imo, Abia and Taraba.

- Kashim Shettima from APC won Borno.

List of Governors and their party:

http://jide-salu.com/2015/04/14/from-abia-zamfara-all-the-governors-elect-and-their-parties/

[politicus]

Link to the map:

http://nigeriaelections.org/

Apart from Gombe (and possibly Taraba, where ACP tried running a woman) PDP is reduced to running the South Eastern part of the country. If you had coloured the grey states you could see it streching into the central South (but probably only because those state had no election this time).

...

This BBC map is not 100% correct, because there was no election in Anambra (the red state) and Abia is undecided - not PDP as they have it. But otherwise gives a good impression:



The old map was a lot greener:

[politicus]

The election also confirmed that only four Third Parties are relevant:

"Left wing"

Labour: Trade union based and "Social Democratic"/social justice-focused. Got House seats.

APGA: Igbo nationalist and left wing - used to be Socialist. Got House seats.

Social Democratic Party: Dictator Ibrahim Babangidas attempt to create a big (slightly) left of center party in 1989 as the one half of a new detribalized/non-ethnoreligious two party system. Outlawed by new strongman Sani Abacha in 1993, but survived to 1999 and the introduction of democracy. A lot of members later joined PDP. Is vaguely "social justice" focused in its rhetoric. No House seats.


"Right wing"

Accord Party: Corporatist, anti-union/pro-business, authoritarian and law and order-populist, so "fascist". Got House seats.

(insert usual disclaimer about African parties and ideology)

[Famous Mortimer]

The election also confirmed that only four Third Parties are relevant:

"Left wing"

Labour: Trade union based and "Social Democratic"/social justice-focused. Got House seats.

APGA: Igbo nationalist and left wing - used to be Socialist. Got House seats.

Social Democratic Party: Dictator Ibrahim Babangidas attempt to create a big (slightly) left of center party in 1989 as the one half of a new detribalized/non-ethnoreligious two party system. Outlawed by new strongman Sani Abacha in 1993, but survived to 1999 and the introduction of democracy. A lot of members later joined PDP. Is vaguely "social justice" focused in its rhetoric. No House seats.


"Right wing"

Accord Party: Corporatist, anti-union/pro-business, authoritarian and law and order-populist, so "fascist". Got House seats.

(insert usual disclaimer about African parties and ideology)

Nothing you say is incorrect and I'm sure you know the full story yourself, but just to make it more clear, Babangida was not a member of the Social Democratic Party, although he did bring about its creation. He actually invalidated elections after they won, rather than the alternate right-wing party he had created to be their rival.

However, like a lot of SDP members, Babangida himself did end up joining the PDP and launching several half serious campaigns for their presidential nomination.

[politicus]

Nothing you say is incorrect and I'm sure you know the full story yourself, but just to make it more clear, Babangida was not a member of the Social Democratic Party, although he did bring about its creation. He actually invalidated elections after they won, rather than the alternate right-wing party he had created to be their rival.

Yes, I thought the "created ... a two party system" bit was unequivocal. The controlled two party system with the "leftist" option supposed to be inferior to the right wing is a dictator classic. SDP was modelled on the Brazilian MDB and the modern Nigerian "Social Democrats" seem as Social Democratic and useful as their Brazilian comrades in PSDB. State based machine politics is their game.

[politicus]

Jigawa State Assembly:

APC 25
PDP 5

APC also got all the 11 federal House seats where the election was postponed.

[ag]

modern Nigerian "Social Democrats" seem as Social Democratic and useful as their Brazilian comrades in PSDB.

They must be really good in that case!