CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Hillary quite weak, as Paul runs best against her

[Tender Branson]

Colorado

In the presidential race in Colorado, Paul gets 44 percent to Clinton's 41 percent and other Republicans are effectively tied as well:

    U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida gets 41 percent to Clinton's 40 percent;
    She ties former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 41 - 41 percent;
    Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets 42 percent to her 41 percent;
    Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
    She gets 41 percent to Bush's 38 percent;
    Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.

Iowa

Every Republican is tied or close to Clinton in Iowa:

    She gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Christie:
    She gets 41 percent to 40 percent for Bush;
    Paul at 43 percent to Clinton's 42 percent;
    Huckabee ties her 42 - 42 percent;
    Clinton edges Walker 44 - 40 percent;
    She gets 43 percent to 40 percent against either Rubio or Cruz.

Virginia

Clinton leads Bush 47 - 40 percent in Virginia, compared to a 42 - 42 percent tie February 18, She gets 47 percent to Paul's 43 percent, her closest race in the Old Dominion. In other races:

    Clinton tops Christie 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton over Huckabee 48 - 40 percent;
    Clinton tops Walker 47 - 40 percent;
    She beats Rubio 48 - 40 percent;
    Clinton tops Cruz 49 - 39 percent.

...

From March 29 - April 7 Quinnipiac University surveyed:

    894 Colorado voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points;
    948 Iowa voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;
    961 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2184

[Tender Branson]

How inevitable ...

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the results in a more readable format:

Colorado

Paul 44%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 41%
Christie 39%

Clinton 41%
Bush 38%

Walker 42%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 41%
Huckabee 41%

Rubio 41%
Clinton 40%

Clinton 42%
Cruz 41%

Iowa

Paul 43%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 41%
Christie 39%

Clinton 41%
Bush 40%

Clinton 44%
Walker 40%

Clinton 42%
Huckabee 42%

Clinton 43%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 43%
Cruz 40%

Virginia

Clinton 47%
Paul 43%

Clinton 46%
Christie 40%

Clinton 47%
Bush 40%

Clinton 47%
Walker 40%

Clinton 48%
Huckabee 40%

Clinton 48%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 49%
Cruz 39%

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Virginia is more Democratic that Colorado and Iowa? Sorry but I don't buy that.

Also, why so many undecideds in the first two? It's not like the candidates lack name recognition.

[Gallium]

Looks like it actually might be true that Virginia is solid D and Iowa and Colorado hate Hillary!!!!

[Mr. Morden]

I won't bother to list everyone's favorability in all three states, but, to give an indication of the relative name recognition of the various candidates, here's the %age of respondents in CO/IA/VA who answered "haven't heard enough about [him/her]" when asked their opinion of the person in question:

Clinton 6 / 5 / 4
Christie 29 / 31 / 25
Bush 25 / 28 / 28
Paul 33 / 35 / 33
Huckabee 29 / 27 / 28
Walker 50 / 50 / 53
Rubio 42 / 54 / 44
Cruz 36 / 42 / 31

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, if Paul is the nomimee, she would do worst against a fresher face than Walker. But, the 272 firewall includes OH or CO. She can certainly either of the two, not necessarily winning both.

[Gallium]

Clinton's numbers may be down in CO compared to two months ago, but the margins are exactly where they were in their February 2014 poll, when Paul was leading her by 3% and she was only 1% ahead of Cruz (and that was when she was further ahead in national polls). I think the results show a continuing poor fit for Hillary there rather than any Paulmentum or emailgate. But it'd be good to see other pollsters.

Also unsurprising that Bush is doing the worst there. He may have to put Martinez or Sandoval on his ticket if he wants to make a play in the Mountain West (if he's the nominee).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My map includes picking Hickenlooper as the running mate. She wont win IA or CO on her own.

[Free Bird]

Being generous and giving Walker wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida, this gives a 272 win. The ship is certainly sinking, and the fact that it is so early should concern Democrats

[porky88]

Quinnipiac seems to be showing numbers that are more favorable to Republicans than other pollsters. Either they are onto something or they are misjudging the electorate.

[The Free North]

Paul seems to do fairly well against Clinton in many polls 

[Devils30]

Virginia meanwhile looks like it's continuing it's Democratic trend. Hillary by winning VA WI NV NH PA can win without Colorado Iowa Florida Ohio.

[Former Democrat]

VA was a red state till 2006
but more and more DC people moving to VA changed it to a purple and trending slightly blue
but still winnable as the mid-terms in 2014 showed
in 2008 and 2012 it was -like OH - presenting the national numbers

IA is trending red more and more

CO is  a purple with conservatives Indy voters it depends on the canddate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Uh, Clinton will certainly win CO, NV, Ia, Pa, WI and NH for 272 electors.

[Ebsy]

I wonder if they are using 2014 turnout models.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if they are using 2014 turnout models.

They aren't using any turnout model at all.  This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters.

[King]

Rand Paul is a great challenge to Hillary, but he's not going to win the nomination.

[Ebsy]

I just looked at the numbers again. Bush leading Clinton by 7 in Virginia is a total joke. When did Quinnipiac become a Republican internal pollster?

[Tender Branson]

I just looked at the numbers again. Bush leading Clinton by 7 in Virginia is a total joke. When did Quinnipiac become a Republican internal pollster?

Hillary leads him by 7, not the other way round.

[Ebsy]

I just looked at the numbers again. Bush leading Clinton by 7 in Virginia is a total joke. When did Quinnipiac become a Republican internal pollster?

Hillary leads him by 7, not the other way round.

Oh, thanks. I was wondering why the numbers looked more ridiculous the second time around.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I don't believe those CO polls for more than a second. Hillary is obviously weak there, but after the 2014 Quinnipiac polls of CO, I can't trust them especially if this is RV.

IA is more than believable, and I'm confident Walker will improve with name recognition.

VA seems fine, but the most unbelievable part is that Paul performs best there. Cutting the whole federal government must be playing great there.

[pbrower2a]

Polling results with less than 45% for either candidate in a binary election have little value in predicting the end result.

[Landslide Lyndon]

VA seems fine, but the most unbelievable part is that Paul performs best there. Cutting the whole federal government must be playing great there.

So must be cutting ethanol subsidies in Iowa, at least according to this poll.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Way too many undecideds, worthless polls.