Upshot: GOP race looks Chaotic: It's Not.

[RogueBeaver]

Cohn says a Bush-Walker race likely barring a major stumble by either man, with perhaps only Rubio having a chance to join them at the top.

[Suburbia]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

[Bull Moose Base]

Good article. Yeah, it is feeling fairly similar to 2008 with Bush as a parallel to Clinton and Walker as a parallel to Obama, an establishment candidate with populist appeal. Walker looks a bit shaky with a fair chance of a colossal gaffe which is why I'd put Cruz as the stand-by candidate instead of Rubio, who would need the much more unlikely scenario of Bush falling out with elites, as Cohn points out. Cruz, if he wins Iowa, feels different than Huckabee, who couldn't raise money and only evangelicals liked, and Gingrich, who had major vulnerabilities in his past.

Unlike many people here, I agree with Cohn that Paul has no chance whatsoever of being the nominee.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In your scenario, does Bush come back in 8 years to be slaughtered in the general by an extremely competent Wisconsonite (Feingold!)

[King]

Bush is going to flop. He's not going to be getting the project big money interest. Walker is just as safe and more energizing. I'm calling Walker becoming the establishment candidate against a more conservative Cruz and distant third Paul opposition.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I say let's just wait and see first how the candidates fare on the campaign trail. I still remember how four years ago every DC journalist was creaming his pants with Tim Pawlenty and touted him as Romney's most dangerous foe.

[Ebsy]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

I would replace Pence with Rubio, but we all know Rubio has no chance of winning the nomination.

[bedstuy]

I expect that Jeb Bush will crash and burn.  His best case scenario is the John McCain strategy in 2008, coming in 3rd or 4th in Iowa, winning New Hampshire and hoping the conservatives kill each other in a circular firing squad.  I know everyone thinks that's a workable strategy, but I really doubt it.

Republicans have spent the past 6 years trying to forget the Bush presidency and the events therein.  Jeb just gives them a chance to separate themselves emotionally from that period by rejecting his brother.  Deficits, spending on healthcare, education reform, attempts at immigration reform, bailing out the financial industry, the whole compassionate conservative agenda has become anathema to the activists in the Republican party.  The fact that his name is Bush also takes away the Romney electability argument from 2012 as well.

[Maxwell]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

[King]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Yea, he has no angle. Bush, Cruz, Walker, and Paul are superior to him for every different type of voter.

[Maxwell]

I mean. Rubio could MAYBE re-invent his image and become a Bush-type Republican if Bush somehow implodes (but if anything Rubio's potential for implosion is far greater). But I think Bush is just going to trod onward mediocrely.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yeah, I don't see it playing out quite like this. Bush and Walker will be competing for the big money, but Bush will fizzle after Walker trounces him in Iowa, allowing Walker to win NH and establish himself as the heavy fave. Cruz will then win SC and a lot of southern states, keeping himself in it till late in the race but never quite catching up. Paul will stay in the whole time, but likely only win a few small states and caucuses.

[7,052,770]

Way too early to count out Christie.

[Maxwell]

Way too early to count out Christie.

Actually... I agree. I could see a Gingrich-esqe return for him.

In other words, Cohn is pretty much wrong.

[RogueBeaver]

The guy loathed by his own party? Okaaay.

[IceSpear]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

Someone who's not even running is in the five way race?

[King]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

Someone who's not even running is in the five way race?

Your liberal facts don't change the truth.

[IceSpear]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

The media's fascination with Rubio is strange. It was understandable before Jeb's entry, but now it's just dumb. He's like the Republican O'Malley in terms of media hype over nothing.

[RogueBeaver]

The "Pub Obama wannabe" hit was always a layup, and he hasn't found a convincing answer yet.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Fantastic - Existing in or constructed from fantasy; of or relating to fantasy; fanciful. Not believable; implausible; seemingly only possible in fantasy. Resembling fantasies in irregularity, caprice, or eccentricity; irregular; grotesque.

Yes, I'd say that fantastic describes it perfectly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The issue so far, is money. Who have the establishment money-men got behind? It's Jeb. They will continue to back him until he somehow manages to crumble.

Unfortunately, the elements that will really hurt him in the primary (common-core, Immigration) are the things I actually like about him. But that's the GOP primary. The lesson learned from Romney is, if you're not a member of the legitimate bat-*** right... don't pretend, because it'll destroy you in the General.

But I generally agree, this will be likely Jeb v Walker in the end. But not after a LOT of side-show to get there.

[retromike22]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

lol

[Maxwell]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Fantastic - Existing in or constructed from fantasy; of or relating to fantasy; fanciful. Not believable; implausible; seemingly only possible in fantasy. Resembling fantasies in irregularity, caprice, or eccentricity; irregular; grotesque.

Yes, I'd say that fantastic describes it perfectly.

Deny all you want, man, he raised some serious funds, he's surging in the polls, and the media criticisms over him being a crazy arch-conservative is EXACTLY what he wants. It's his strategy even.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Fantastic - Existing in or constructed from fantasy; of or relating to fantasy; fanciful. Not believable; implausible; seemingly only possible in fantasy. Resembling fantasies in irregularity, caprice, or eccentricity; irregular; grotesque.

Yes, I'd say that fantastic describes it perfectly.

Deny all you want, man, he raised some serious funds, he's surging in the polls, and the media criticisms over him being a crazy arch-conservative is EXACTLY what he wants. It's his strategy even.

That's the thing...

I see where everyone fits
- Establishment - Jeb (maybe Christie)
- Libertarian (comparatively,but not really) - Paul
- Tea-party + religious - Cruz

etc... but even with people like Walker, who I don't see an easy fit, I still see a place for them. I just don't see where Rubio fits in this discussion... at all.

[RogueBeaver]

Moneybombing barely worked against a bunch of jokers in 2012. If Romney had lost Michigan and Ohio... imagine that. Plus I think Walker's strategy would be for an early state KO. Win Iowa, overperform in NH, win SC. We know from 2012 that the elites are fickle if their guy takes serious damage - hell, Barbour and others were talking white knight during primary season itself.