Upshot: GOP race looks Chaotic: It's Not.

[Maxwell]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Fantastic - Existing in or constructed from fantasy; of or relating to fantasy; fanciful. Not believable; implausible; seemingly only possible in fantasy. Resembling fantasies in irregularity, caprice, or eccentricity; irregular; grotesque.

Yes, I'd say that fantastic describes it perfectly.

Deny all you want, man, he raised some serious funds, he's surging in the polls, and the media criticisms over him being a crazy arch-conservative is EXACTLY what he wants. It's his strategy even.

That's the thing...

I see where everyone fits
- Establishment - Jeb (maybe Christie)
- Libertarian (comparatively,but not really) - Paul
- Tea-party + religious - Cruz

etc... but even with people like Walker, who I don't see an easy fit, I still see a place for them. I just don't see where Rubio fits in this discussion... at all.

I'm not sure you're responding to the right post - I agree with you 100%.

The media denial of Ted Cruz and acceptance of Marco Rubio is absolute beltway insanity.

[RogueBeaver]

There's a reason why Cruz is minimized: candidates without establishment support don't win, though they can derail. Rubio has the potential for establishment support. Cruz would be given the Gingrich treatment if need be. The "somewhat conservatives" would go with Jeb. Henry Olsen's "The Republican battlefield" is masterful on this stuff IMO.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, you guys shouldn't get too hung up on polls.  The polls don't matter, except insofar as they have some influence on party elites.  The fact that Rubio is at rock bottom in the polls right now doesn't matter (although really, since many polls show no one above 20%, even the candidates at "rock bottom" aren't that far behind).  What matters right now is the "invisible primary": How are the various candidates doing at attracting support from party elites?  The media is just reporting on the reality that while few party elites are naming Rubio as their first choice, they are, for the most part, more open to him than they are to Cruz.

Here, read Bernstein on why you should ignore the polls, and instead pay attention to what he calls "party actors":

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-02/ted-cruz-is-surging-ignore-it-

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[King]

There's a reason why Cruz is minimized: candidates without establishment support don't win, though they can derail. Rubio has the potential for establishment support. Cruz would be given the Gingrich treatment if need be. The "somewhat conservatives" would go with Jeb. Henry Olsen's "The Republican battlefield" is masterful on this stuff IMO.

Freshman Senators in the minority party don't rally their body against the will of leadership to shut down the federal government. Ted Cruz did.

There's something special about him. Throw convention out the window. Most people who get ignored by the establishment are jokes like Robertson or Buchanan or people with major skeletons in their closet like Gingrich. He's out of the mainstream, but he knows what he's doing.

He will raise money. He will drum up grassroots support. He will agenda set to his opponents and he will dominate airtime in debates.

Sleep on him at your own peril.

[IceSpear]

Moneybombing barely worked against a bunch of jokers in 2012. If Romney had lost Michigan and Ohio... imagine that. Plus I think Walker's strategy would be for an early state KO. Win Iowa, overperform in NH, win SC. We know from 2012 that the elites are fickle if their guy takes serious damage - hell, Barbour and others were talking white knight during primary season itself.

This is very true. People tend to forget that the establishment was ready to drop Romney like a hot potato if their Christie/Daniels draft campaigns succeeded.

[useful idiot]

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Fantastic - Existing in or constructed from fantasy; of or relating to fantasy; fanciful. Not believable; implausible; seemingly only possible in fantasy. Resembling fantasies in irregularity, caprice, or eccentricity; irregular; grotesque.

Yes, I'd say that fantastic describes it perfectly.

Deny all you want, man, he raised some serious funds, he's surging in the polls, and the media criticisms over him being a crazy arch-conservative is EXACTLY what he wants. It's his strategy even.

That's the thing...

I see where everyone fits
- Establishment - Jeb (maybe Christie)
- Libertarian (comparatively,but not really) - Paul
- Tea-party + religious - Cruz

etc... but even with people like Walker, who I don't see an easy fit, I still see a place for them. I just don't see where Rubio fits in this discussion... at all.

It's about the debates and how they do on the stump and with reporters, not about what mold we think they fit into before the campaign has even begun. Rubio has the rhetorical skill and experience talking about national issues that Walker doesn't have. He doesn't have the personality problems of Cruz or Christie, and he doesn't have the name-baggage or time out of the spotlight that Bush has. He isn't vulnerable to foreign policy challenges like Rand. He is comfortable talking in the language of religious voters without sounding crazy, and his tax plan makes it appear as if he's trying to take a family-oriented approach.

The fact that he isn't the candidate of a particular faction, but can appeal to most of them and has significant advantages over the leaders of those factions, works in his favor.

[Torie]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

lol

Well maybe the guy has not kept up with the recent news out of Indiana.

[King]

rofl

[Mehmentum]

Well, at least Atlas' opinion of Rubio was spot on:

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Yea, he has no angle. Bush, Cruz, Walker, and Paul are superior to him for every different type of voter.

The media's fascination with Rubio is strange. It was understandable before Jeb's entry, but now it's just dumb. He's like the Republican O'Malley in terms of media hype over nothing.

[IceSpear]

Well, at least Atlas' opinion of Rubio was spot on:

After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Yea, he has no angle. Bush, Cruz, Walker, and Paul are superior to him for every different type of voter.

The media's fascination with Rubio is strange. It was understandable before Jeb's entry, but now it's just dumb. He's like the Republican O'Malley in terms of media hype over nothing.

#accolades

Glad I was one of the first on Atlas to call out the media for their unjustified Rubio fetish.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

Someone who's not even running is in the five way race?

Your liberal facts don't change the truth.

At least it looks like Pence will actually be on the ticket, unlike the other four.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Op was 100% wrong. The race wasn't just Chaotic, it turned out to be Chaotic Evil.

[Ebsy]

Some of us had the vision to see Trump on the horizon.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Some of us had the vision to see Trump on the horizon.

Nah, not really. See the post below . If you just posted "lol the GOP will nominate a kook like Cruz" I might give you some credit, because we did vote for a kook (I certainly voted for him; bitter, but necessary medicine for the party).

I knew that a populist undercurrent of anger was capable of taking over, but I didn't see any candidate, and certainly not Trump, being the forebearer of that.

I see it being a five way race. Bush, Walker,  Pence,  Paul and Cruz.

I would replace Pence with Rubio, but we all know Rubio has no chance of winning the nomination.