Hillary will win Colorado (user search)
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  Hillary will win Colorado (search mode)
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Author Topic: Hillary will win Colorado  (Read 2322 times)
Vosem
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« on: August 12, 2016, 11:47:50 AM »

That's my prediction. Not just because of "muh demographics", but because her "weakness" there is severely overrated, just like her "strength" in states like AR, WV, KY, and MO. I think Colorado remains 1-2 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016. Feel free to disagree, as I'm sure 90% of you will.

While the main prediction has obviously proven to be true, I'm less certain about the details. The last NBC poll has Clinton at 44% nationally, but at 41% in Colorado; similar numbers are seen in the averages (44% nationally, will be 42% in CO once RCP adds in the polling from today). If you insist on using the two-way averages, the same pattern shows up; Hillary is at 48% nationally but 45% in Colorado. Clinton is winning Colorado overwhelmingly because Trump is such a uniquely awful fit for specifically Colorado's Republicans that her weakness doesn't matter; but it hasn't gone away, is still present in polling, and could be relevant in the future depending on who the Republican nominee in 2020 is.

Of course, any Clinton strength in AR, KY, MO, and WV in the 2016 cycle was always BS. Might've still been in the case in 2008, though.
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