NC-PPP: Huckabee does best against Hillary
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  NC-PPP: Huckabee does best against Hillary
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Huckabee does best against Hillary  (Read 4086 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 10, 2015, 12:30:17 PM »

The Republicans who do the best against Clinton, even if they aren't doing as well with the primary electorate this month, are Huckabee who leads by 5 at 48/43 and Walker who leads by 3 at 46/43. The other GOP hopeful with an advantage is Rick Perry at 45/44. Clinton is tied at 45 with Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio. Her leads come against Jeb Bush (45/44), Ben Carson (also 45/44), and Chris Christie (43/41.)

Even if Clinton trails Walker by 3, she's still easily the strongest Democratic candidate. Joe Biden would start out 9 points behind Walker (48/39) and Elizabeth Warren has a 10 point deficit (46/36). Overall the picture in North Carolina continues to suggest a very close Presidential race just like the state had in 2008 and 2012.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/04/bush-reclaims-lead-from-walker-in-nc.html
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King
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2015, 01:08:08 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2015, 01:10:36 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

That's not entirely true.

NC is trending slightly Dem. and if Hilldog wins by 5 nationally she might eek out NC too.

Obama needed a 7 and 6 point difference.
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Matty
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2015, 01:33:05 PM »

Am I wrong in assuming that most of the undecided/independent voters in this state probably lean republican?
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King
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2015, 01:45:03 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

That's not entirely true.

NC is trending slightly Dem. and if Hilldog wins by 5 nationally she might eek out NC too.

Obama needed a 7 and 6 point difference.

I dispute that. North Carolina was actually one of the few states Obama received more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008, and it still flipped to Romney.  It was trending Dem, but it's over. There's been a grassroots GOP resurgence in the state and a whole slew of new Republicans have registered to vote.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2015, 02:27:36 PM »

Even if Clinton trails Walker by 3, she's still easily the strongest Democratic candidate. Joe Biden would start out 9 points behind Walker (48/39) and Elizabeth Warren has a 10 point deficit (46/36). Overall the picture in North Carolina continues to suggest a very close Presidential race just like the state had in 2008 and 2012.

But how would Lincoln Chafee do?
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2015, 02:38:43 PM »

It's tough to depend on a long-term GOP majority in NC when the margins of victory in 2012, 2014 were 2 and 1.6 points. The shift in demographics by 2020 should take care of that. A GOP candidate needs at least a 5% win in NC to be winning in VA as well. Dems will take the VA/NC split from 2012 again in 2016.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2015, 02:53:12 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

There is a Senate seat up for grabs. Burr has a lousy approval rating.
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King
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2015, 03:01:24 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

There is a Senate seat up for grabs. Burr has a lousy approval rating.

Who doesn't have a lousy approval rating? There's better Senate seats up for grabs.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2015, 04:05:28 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

There is a Senate seat up for grabs. Burr has a lousy approval rating.

Hillary also has lousy favorability ratings.

Everybody has lousy favorability ratings.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2015, 08:43:18 PM »

NC will be a state that Dems win after they've already won the election, just like 08
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RFayette
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2015, 11:02:25 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

There is a Senate seat up for grabs. Burr has a lousy approval rating.

Who doesn't have a lousy approval rating? There's better Senate seats up for grabs.

Election rule of thumb:  When you have many seat opportunities available, don't waste your time dislodging the guy up double-digits in polling.  The GOP failed at this badly in 2012.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2015, 11:52:31 PM »

While NC will never be a tipping point state the Dems can make the GOP spend time and money to defend it. This is what Obama did in 2012. The GOP ended up spending more to keep NC than the Dems spent trying to take it away.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2015, 11:58:05 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

There is a Senate seat up for grabs. Burr has a lousy approval rating.

Who doesn't have a lousy approval rating? There's better Senate seats up for grabs.

Election rule of thumb:  When you have many seat opportunities available, don't waste your time dislodging the guy up double-digits in polling.  The GOP failed at this badly in 2012.

In which races exactly did they do this? CT doesn't work, because McMahon was actually polling well early in the campaign, she just faltered late. Smith getting as close as he did in PA was more because of Casey's utter refusal to campaign at all until October more than a huge republican spending effort. Kind of like the 2012 version of Gillespie, just not as strong. Bill Nelson overperformed the RCP average - by 7 (!) points - on election day, so spending money there was more or less an unavoidable mistake. The polls in MO were notoriously inaccurate, Claire McCaskill overperformed the average by 10 (!) points on election day, so again, an unavoidable mistake. So, that leaves only NM and HI where the republicans made a serious effort in a state where they were trailing by double digits in the polling average, and I'm not even sure if they were even spending in the latter of those two states in the closing month(s). So, a pretty isolated mistake rather than something that occured across the board. In any case, divert money away from NM/HI, and what do you get that you wouldn't otherwise? Probably ND and nothing else. 1 more seat doesn't really make that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2015, 01:26:45 AM »

Godd*mnit Hillary you haven't even announced yet and you're already blowing it
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RFayette
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2015, 09:52:48 AM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

There is a Senate seat up for grabs. Burr has a lousy approval rating.

Who doesn't have a lousy approval rating? There's better Senate seats up for grabs.

Election rule of thumb:  When you have many seat opportunities available, don't waste your time dislodging the guy up double-digits in polling.  The GOP failed at this badly in 2012.

In which races exactly did they do this? CT doesn't work, because McMahon was actually polling well early in the campaign, she just faltered late. Smith getting as close as he did in PA was more because of Casey's utter refusal to campaign at all until October more than a huge republican spending effort. Kind of like the 2012 version of Gillespie, just not as strong. Bill Nelson overperformed the RCP average - by 7 (!) points - on election day, so spending money there was more or less an unavoidable mistake. The polls in MO were notoriously inaccurate, Claire McCaskill overperformed the average by 10 (!) points on election day, so again, an unavoidable mistake. So, that leaves only NM and HI where the republicans made a serious effort in a state where they were trailing by double digits in the polling average, and I'm not even sure if they were even spending in the latter of those two states in the closing month(s). So, a pretty isolated mistake rather than something that occured across the board. In any case, divert money away from NM/HI, and what do you get that you wouldn't otherwise? Probably ND and nothing else. 1 more seat doesn't really make that much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.

Maybe not double-digits, but the GOP wasted money on a lot of  dumb races, like Hawaii and Michigan when it should've spent way more time in ND/MT/IN. 
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2015, 07:27:39 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

That's not entirely true.

NC is trending slightly Dem. and if Hilldog wins by 5 nationally she might eek out NC too.

Obama needed a 7 and 6 point difference.

I dispute that. North Carolina was actually one of the few states Obama received more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008, and it still flipped to Romney.  It was trending Dem, but it's over. There's been a grassroots GOP resurgence in the state and a whole slew of new Republicans have registered to vote.

Yup. It's over for Democrats in North Carolina. No use in them doing their own push to register voters. All the potential that North Carolina has for Democrats is now gone because Republicans registered voters after losing in 2008.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2015, 02:21:15 PM »

Even though NC leans Republican, it's still worth going after. It forces Republicans to play defense, and at least gives Democrats a chance of expanding the map. Also, even if Hillary can't win NC, her coattails could help bring down McCrory.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2015, 02:52:09 PM »

Yeah, Republicans will probably not win Pennsylvania in a presidential race for quite some time, but there are congressional seats that will always be in play. Same for Democrats in North Carolina, even though the legislative districts are carved to sh**t, they can still make some senate and governor races competitive.
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DS0816
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« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2015, 06:49:23 PM »

NC isn't worth pursuing for Democrats

In other words: Ignore the trend with the state of North Carolina vs. the U.S. Popular Vote's percentage margins: R+13 (2000), R+10 (2004), R+7 (2008, a Democratic pickup of the state along with the presidency), and R+6 (2012, a Republican pickup of the state by a margin of only R+2.04).

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: April 15, 2015, 10:56:16 AM »

Am I wrong in assuming that most of the undecided/independent voters in this state probably lean republican?

Most undecideds in all states probably lean Republican. Then again, there is a substantial block of voters that only turn out in presidential elections (and perhaps are not representative in this poll), and they tend to lean Democratic.
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