Does Hillary Win?

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to carry more swing states.

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to win more swing states.

That's right, but I really think the more Democrats talk about her "invincibility", the higher the Republicans chances of winning are. Remember in early 1991? George H. W. Bush was supposed to be REALLY inevitable: Republicans had a (supposed!) lock on the Electoral College, Bush was popular (he just led the nation through a successful war), no recession, ... Well, you know what happened in Nov. 1992, right?

Of course, there's no garanty for anything. The 1948 election is another such example, probably the best in history. Nobody belived Truman could win, but he did it. 1936 was also considered as a toss-up, but in the end FDR went on to win 61% of the PV and 98% of the EV.

[MT Treasurer]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to win more swing states.

That's right, but I really think the more Democrats talk about her "invincibility", the higher the Republicans chances of winning are. Remember in early 1991? George H. W. Bush was supposed to be REALLY inevitable: Republicans had a (supposed!) lock on the Electoral College, Bush was popular (he just led the nation through a successful war), no recession, ... Well, you know what happened in Nov. 1992, right?

Of course, there's no garanty for anything. The 1948 election is another such example, probably the best in history. Nobody belived Truman could win, but he did it. 1936 was also considered as a toss-up, but in the end FDR went on to win 61% of the PV and 98% of the EV.

Absolutely right. That's why I've always said: Let's just wait and see what happens. But Atlas Democrats are already speculating on whether Hillary will win re-election in 2020

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to win more swing states.

That's right, but I really think the more Democrats talk about her "invincibility", the higher the Republicans chances of winning are. Remember in early 1991? George H. W. Bush was supposed to be REALLY inevitable: Republicans had a (supposed!) lock on the Electoral College, Bush was popular (he just led the nation through a successful war), no recession, ... Well, you know what happened in Nov. 1992, right?

Of course, there's no garanty for anything. The 1948 election is another such example, probably the best in history. Nobody belived Truman could win, but he did it. 1936 was also considered as a toss-up, but in the end FDR went on to win 61% of the PV and 98% of the EV.

Absolutely right. That's why I've always said: Let's just wait and see what happens. But Atlas Democrats are already speculating on whether Hillary will win re-election in 2020

It's almost 50-50% in my opinion. Depends on exteranal circumstances (economy, foreign events) and the way she's handling the job. And of course, the Republican candidate in 2020.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Yes, easily. Democrats will have many paths of victory vs the few Republicans will have.

After totaling the electoral votes in all the solid blue states, it becomes apparent that even a below average Democrat presidential candidate could begin the race with a whopping 246 advantage. No wonder President (Barack) Obama was so confident of victory in 2012 for he knew the game was practically over before it began.

University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said the hurdle for Republicans doesn't look any better if you count the underlying votes by citizens, not just the electoral results.

Democrats have also won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential contests," Sabato said. "The demographic shifts heading to mid century are all pro-Democratic.

[Panhandle Progressive]

How accurate was this post?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156483.msg3365431#msg3365431

[President Johnson]

How accurate was this post?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156483.msg3365431#msg3365431

Well done! And you predicted it in July, great!

I made a bet with a friend in July 2012 that's going to be 332-206. But it's true that Democrats have an advantage in the electoral college to win the election.

[bobloblaw]

Yes, she will take Julian Castro in an attempt to lock down FL, PA and NV, CO senate, as well as win IL, WI. She wins around 300 electors against Jeb or Walker and leaves GOP with a comfortable margin in House around 233 members.

PA wont care one bit about Julian Castro. PA is an old white state. FL is mostly Cuban and Central American with few Mexicans.

This is something people who think Rubio or Castro would appeal to a broad range of hispanics forget. The group is not united. Mexicans are not likely to support Rubio and Cubans and lesser extent PRs and DRs wouldnt support a Mexican.

Castro would help in AZ, I am surprised you left that one off but included the old white people state of PA.

[m4567]

She has a pretty good chance.

I don't think Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are good enough politicians.

Scott Walker makes Al Gore look like George Clooney.

Jeb Bush is the most electable, but a tad too dull overall.

[Del Tachi]

I didn't think so before today, but after seeing her roll out I'm going to have to say "yes".

[NewYorkExpress]

The Primary?

Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb, wouldn't even scare Biden.

The General Election?

Unless Republicans do something very stupid, like nominating Carson, Palin, Huckabee or Trump (which is entirely possible), I don't see Hillary's path to victory.  Best case is she's on the wrong end of a Gore 2000 fiasco, worst case is a performance similar to Jimmy Carter in 1980 (Based on her service as Secretary of State and her name rec, Hillary is a Quasi-incumbent). That being she (should) keep GOP coattails down in the Senate, and in State Legislatures, which is a benefit in and of itself.

[RI]

I'd give her a 75% chance of victory. The Republicans simply don't have anyone near her caliber.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, my honest, non-joking prediction is that she has a 93% chance of winning the nomination, with 4% for Biden and 1% each for Sanders/Webb/Chafee (I do not give O'Malley any chance of winning the nomination, and at this point I am reluctantly giving up on Warren changing her mind).

For the general election, I give her a 60% chance of victory. The democrats have a larger base of electoral votes that are completely safe for them than the republicans do and Hillary's gender is a net positive, but it's rare to see a party hold the presidency for three terms in a row, Hillary probably won't do as well with minorities (especially blacks) as Obama did, as Obama was the best candidate possible for Blacks and Romney was the one of the worst possible candidates for Hispanics/Asians, and I think it's slightly likelier than not that the republicans will avoid nominating a nutjob like Cruz/Carson/Huckabee/Trump.

[The Other Castro]

At this point, my honest, non-joking prediction is that she has a 93% chance of winning the nomination, with 4% for Biden and 1% each for Sanders/Webb/Chafee (I do not give O'Malley any chance of winning the nomination, and at this point I am reluctantly giving up on Warren changing her mind).

For the general election, I give her a 60% chance of victory. The democrats have a larger base of electoral votes that are completely safe for them than the republicans do and Hillary's gender is a net positive, but it's rare to see a party hold the presidency for three terms in a row, Hillary probably won't do as well with minorities (especially blacks) as Obama did, as Obama was the best candidate possible for Blacks and Romney was the one of the worst possible candidates for Hispanics/Asians, and I think it's slightly likelier than not that the republicans will avoid nominating a nutjob like Cruz/Carson/Huckabee/Trump.

Pretty much agree with all of this.