Does Hillary Win?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, my honest, non-joking prediction is that she has a 93% chance of winning the nomination, with 4% for Biden and 1% each for Sanders/Webb/Chafee (I do not give O'Malley any chance of winning the nomination, and at this point I am reluctantly giving up on Warren changing her mind).

For the general election, I give her a 60% chance of victory. The democrats have a larger base of electoral votes that are completely safe for them than the republicans do and Hillary's gender is a net positive, but it's rare to see a party hold the presidency for three terms in a row, Hillary probably won't do as well with minorities (especially blacks) as Obama did, as Obama was the best candidate possible for Blacks and Romney was the one of the worst possible candidates for Hispanics/Asians, and I think it's slightly likelier than not that the republicans will avoid nominating a nutjob like Cruz/Carson/Huckabee/Trump.