Does Hillary Win?

[bobloblaw]

If the economy is expanding and unemployment is no higher than today, yes.


As I have said here before. The problem the GOP faces in 2016 is the same the Dems faced in 1988.

A party doesnt preside over the domestic and foreign policy disasters of 1979-80 and 2006-08 and win 8 years later.

The GOP will win again when the Dems preside over a recession and rising unemployment. Then youll see the so called "Blue Wall" crumble

[bobloblaw]

If the economy is expanding and unemployment is no higher than today, yes.


As I have said here before. The problem the GOP faces in 2016 is the same the Dems faced in 1988.

A party doesnt preside over the domestic and foreign policy disasters of 1979-80 and 2006-08 and win 8 years later.

The GOP will win again when the Dems preside over a recession and rising unemployment. Then youll see the so called "Blue Wall" crumble

Except Reagan was stupidly popular. Obama is not

At this point in his presidency Reagan's approval rating was 47% - the same as Obama's.

He is right. By election day 1988, Reagan was up to 55%/ What knocked Reagan down from 60% to 45% in a few months was Iran-Contra. But once it passed, his approval rating climbed.

[bobloblaw]

You do have to go back to 1904 where a party that was in power for 8 years, increased its share of the vote. The average decline since 1940 for a third term is over 5% of the popular vote (im not counting 1944 and 1948). But you could also argue that the electorate is more inelastic today than in the 1940-2000 period.

McCain only lost about 5% off GW Bush 2004 performance. Given the economy and the war in Iraq, it should have been more like 10%. 4-5% of the two party vote is what Bush in 88 and Gore in 00 lost in perfect conditions.

[bobloblaw]

Yes, she will take Julian Castro in an attempt to lock down FL, PA and NV, CO senate, as well as win IL, WI. She wins around 300 electors against Jeb or Walker and leaves GOP with a comfortable margin in House around 233 members.

PA wont care one bit about Julian Castro. PA is an old white state. FL is mostly Cuban and Central American with few Mexicans.

This is something people who think Rubio or Castro would appeal to a broad range of hispanics forget. The group is not united. Mexicans are not likely to support Rubio and Cubans and lesser extent PRs and DRs wouldnt support a Mexican.

Castro would help in AZ, I am surprised you left that one off but included the old white people state of PA.