Does Hillary Win?

[Sir Mohamed]

I mean, her poll numbers are consistently slanting downward.

Her numbers were in the upper 40s and lower 50s for more than a year now. It's unusal candidates in an open race are for beyond 50% more than a year before the election. Barack Obama underperformed in most poll numbers in 2007 and 2011 (the years before the election) Hillary's numbers. Nobody knows what's in 18 months, but if the numbers stay the same, I'll give her a solid victory (with simular results than 2008).

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to carry more swing states.

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to win more swing states.

That's right, but I really think the more Democrats talk about her "invincibility", the higher the Republicans chances of winning are. Remember in early 1991? George H. W. Bush was supposed to be REALLY inevitable: Republicans had a (supposed!) lock on the Electoral College, Bush was popular (he just led the nation through a successful war), no recession, ... Well, you know what happened in Nov. 1992, right?

Of course, there's no garanty for anything. The 1948 election is another such example, probably the best in history. Nobody belived Truman could win, but he did it. 1936 was also considered as a toss-up, but in the end FDR went on to win 61% of the PV and 98% of the EV.

[Sir Mohamed]

In all fairness most people would look wooden against Obama in 2008, for all his faults he was a destiny politician in 2008.

It all depends who the Republicans nominate

I'm sure that will only matter how bih she's going to win...

I completely disagree. What if she implodes?

No one knows exactly what's going to happen in the fall of 2016. But as of now, I don't see any GOP contender with a chance beyond 20% to win. The path to an electoral vote win is easier for Democrats. In other words, Republicans need to win more swing states.

That's right, but I really think the more Democrats talk about her "invincibility", the higher the Republicans chances of winning are. Remember in early 1991? George H. W. Bush was supposed to be REALLY inevitable: Republicans had a (supposed!) lock on the Electoral College, Bush was popular (he just led the nation through a successful war), no recession, ... Well, you know what happened in Nov. 1992, right?

Of course, there's no garanty for anything. The 1948 election is another such example, probably the best in history. Nobody belived Truman could win, but he did it. 1936 was also considered as a toss-up, but in the end FDR went on to win 61% of the PV and 98% of the EV.

Absolutely right. That's why I've always said: Let's just wait and see what happens. But Atlas Democrats are already speculating on whether Hillary will win re-election in 2020

It's almost 50-50% in my opinion. Depends on exteranal circumstances (economy, foreign events) and the way she's handling the job. And of course, the Republican candidate in 2020.