Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California?

[Beet]

Discuss.

[The Free North]

Barring a major unprecedented disaster...no

The difference in growth rates is not enough for Texas to catch up before birth rates for all peoples begin to decline and population stagnates

[Ebsy]

I strongly believe the US population will stagnate at some point in the next 50 years, so yeah, probably not, though it's possible they come close.

You believe a lot of stupid things.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nope. In 1900,  Texas had over twice the population of California. So they're growing faster than California again. Big whoop, it won't last.

[BigSkyBob]

The case for Texas eventually passing California can be summarized in one word: drought.

The evidence indicates that the 1900's were the wettest in millennium. If rainfall returns to historical levels, and, groundwater levels fall, Texas could grow sufficiently faster for sufficiently long.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not any time in the next 50 years.

[smoltchanov]

Not any time in the next 50 years.

Agree. And AFTER that it will matter very little to me))

[Brittain33]

The case for Texas eventually passing California can be summarized in one word: drought.

The evidence indicates that the 1900's were the wettest in millennium. If rainfall returns to historical levels, and, groundwater levels fall, Texas could grow sufficiently faster for sufficiently long.

Texas has water issues, too, and is going to become much hotter and drier.

[muon2]

Not any time in the next 50 years.

I'd say that statement is only about 50-50 to be true.

The estimated rates of growth from the Census since 2010 are 1.0%/year for CA and 1.7%/year for TX. These are compounded rates of growth so the effect is magnified the farther out one goes in the future.

So, if I assume they stay constant going forward then TX will pass CA in 2068. That's 53 years from now and I expect that some of our current posters will live to see that date. There's a lot of demographic and external factors that can impact those growth rates, so I wouldn't put too much credence in them, and shifts can go either way. The projections are so sensitive that if TX grows at 1.8%/year instead of 1.7%/year then it passes CA 10 years sooner in 2058.

[Nyvin]

Once the oil runs out in Texas it's growth spurt will come to a quick close most likely.   It'll still have growth, but it'll be much more in line with California's, maybe a trickle faster but that's it.

[Brittain33]

Article on Texas's water issues:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/13/us/mighty-rio-grande-now-a-trickle-under-siege.html

[Simfan34]

Once the oil runs out in Texas it's growth spurt will come to a quick close most likely.   It'll still have growth, but it'll be much more in line with California's, maybe a trickle faster but that's it.

The oil in Texas mostly ran out years ago. The oil boom has to do with the fact the oil is managed in Texas.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't know... it depends.  How Catholic are their respective Hispanic populations? 

[CatoMinor]

If California's drought worsens it could certainly help make them closer, but I doubt we'll see Texas pass California anytime soon.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't know... it depends.  How Catholic are their respective Hispanic populations? 

I believe about 1/3rd of Texas Hispanics are now Evangelical Protestant?  Probably a much higher fraction than in California.  Off topic, but this is a big part of why Texas Hispanic voters are so much less D than nationally.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't know... it depends.  How Catholic are their respective Hispanic populations? 

I believe about 1/3rd of Texas Hispanics are now Evangelical Protestant?  Probably a much higher fraction than in California.  Off topic, but this is a big part of why Texas Hispanic voters are so much less D than nationally.

Texas will not pass California in EVs, then. 

[badgate]

Not unless one or two more DFW or Houston sized urban metropolis' popped up out of nowhere.

[TDAS04]

I doubt it.

[The Mikado]

Not unless there's another 1906 earthquake that levels San Francisco again.

[traininthedistance]

"Ever" is a long time, so I'm not comfortable saying no. But it won't happen anytime soon. If it does happen, I have to imagine that climate change-caused permadroughts will be the culprit, and if that future comes to pass, Texas might not be in great shape either.  It might fare less poorly than CA, though.

[Kevinstat]

I don't know... it depends.  How Catholic are their respective Hispanic populations? 

I believe about 1/3rd of Texas Hispanics are now Evangelical Protestant?  Probably a much higher fraction than in California.  Off topic, but this is a big part of why Texas Hispanic voters are so much less D than nationally.

Texas will not pass California in EVs, then. 

You're underestimating the libido of megachurch goers.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't know... it depends.  How Catholic are their respective Hispanic populations? 

I believe about 1/3rd of Texas Hispanics are now Evangelical Protestant?  Probably a much higher fraction than in California.  Off topic, but this is a big part of why Texas Hispanic voters are so much less D than nationally.

Texas will not pass California in EVs, then. 

You're underestimating the libido of megachurch goers.

Yea... for a truck stop rub-n-tug in the fourth stall from the right with Larry.  That has nothing to do with procreation. 

[Biden his time]

All the options are reasonable, but I chose #1

[Big Abraham]

Texas could surpass California by 2045, so within the next quarter century.

It holds the No. 3 position for percentage population growth, while California is growing slower than the national average. And most of the Texan growth is due to the extremely high birth rates among Mexicans, rather than white yuppie Californians moving here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes at some future point. Not sure if it'll be during our lifetimes.