Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California? (user search)
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  Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: At the rate at which Texas is growing it will eventually, but that growth could slow at any time
#1
Yes - within the lifetimes of Forum members
 
#2
Yes - at some future point
 
#3
No - never
 
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Total Voters: 79

Author Topic: Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California?  (Read 3996 times)
muon2
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« on: April 11, 2015, 04:36:21 PM »


I'd say that statement is only about 50-50 to be true.

The estimated rates of growth from the Census since 2010 are 1.0%/year for CA and 1.7%/year for TX. These are compounded rates of growth so the effect is magnified the farther out one goes in the future.

So, if I assume they stay constant going forward then TX will pass CA in 2068. That's 53 years from now and I expect that some of our current posters will live to see that date. There's a lot of demographic and external factors that can impact those growth rates, so I wouldn't put too much credence in them, and shifts can go either way. The projections are so sensitive that if TX grows at 1.8%/year instead of 1.7%/year then it passes CA 10 years sooner in 2058.
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