June "Election" 2

[tarheel-leftist85]

Poll runs for three days.

[MODU]

Cobb, out of a mercy vote.    The others don't really float my boat, and since I hate people who don't go to the polls to vote, I had to choose someone. 

[Lincoln Republican]

Frist/Sanford

[The Dowager Mod]

Cobb

[Frodo]

Warner/Lincoln

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Warner, but maybe some other VP choice would be better.

[TheWildCard]

All of them are terrible.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I'd like to get all of the same number of voters (and preferably the same people) for each "election".  Thanks!

[tarheel-leftist85]

extending til Monday b/c I'm going to GA!

[jokerman]

If you want to use an Arkanasas Democrat as a running mate use Mark Pryor. 

I like Blanche Lincoln, but my family has had some problems with her, notably with my father.  He wrote several letters to her on the issue of tort reform (he is a doctor) and would never get any reply.  He called up her office once but the secretary stated that Senator Lincoln "would not talk with him at all."

[Colin]

God the only candidate I actually like up there is Sanford. Frist/Sanford is a bad ticket in my mind and I would never vote those two populists, Warner and Lincoln.

[Ben.]

Warner/Lincoln would be a very strong ticket IMHO.

With Warner you get a youngish former governor from a geographically important state, who has carved out a moderate but pragmatic record as governor and while his centrist stances would endear him to moderate and conservative voters his own brand of pragmatic populism would help see him through the primaries… indeed Warner would probably campaign for the nomination in a way not dissimilar to John Edwards however with a more solidly moderate, and substantial record as Governor he would probably be better placed to pull off such a campaign than Edwards was.  

Warner’s draw backs are his relatively short term in office and more to the point his complete lack of national security or legislative experience, indeed its this which makes me think that Warner won’t go for the Democratic nomination in 08 but will either challenge Allen in 2006 or push for John Warner’s senate seat if the “grand old man” retires rather than run again in 2008, in an open race in 2008 I would expect Warner to win and in a race against Allen it would still be very close so either way he would be able to challenge for the nomination at some point in the future rather than potentially blowing his chances with a run for the nomination in 2008.

That said where Warner to run, besides John Breaux or perhaps Evan Bayh I can’t think of a better running mate than Blanche Lincoln, as VP with Warner at the head of the ticket Arkansas would probably be brought into play, what is more she makes up for Warner’s lack of legislative experience being a three term senator and reinforces his stance as a “moderate” and would solidify the tickets support with moderate and conservative voters and also women voters.

The fact that two relatively moderate candidates where making up the democratic ticket would no doubt mean that there would be a third or green party candidate who would take anything from 3-6% of the vote, however I would expect that after two election defeats voters defecting from the Democrats to any such leftwing third party candidate would be kept to a minimum probably meaning such a candidate would do little better than Nader did back in 2000.

Looking at the GOP a Frist/Sanford ticket would be well placed to stall any drive by Warner/ Lincoln to appeal to rural southern voters, indeed beyond VA and AR I doubt much else of the south would be play but I’d expect Warner/Lincoln to easily improve on Kerry’s 04… outside of Virginia and Arkansas though I think the best they could hope for would be a longshot at perhaps Louisiana. Frist has been working very hard of late to appeal to the religious right and where he to win the nomination he might well owe a great deal to the religious right and while he could well get a good turnout from evangelical Christians, as Bush did in 04, Warner would not be at the same disadvantage amongst this group as Kerry was, indeed both Warner and Lincoln have a proven record of appealing to “values voters” and against such a ticket the GOP could not expect the near monopoly of support it enjoyed in 2004 within this group.

The Democrats with a Warner/Lincoln ticket could look forward to making some significant inroads back into the south, however how many states it would swing into their column remains unclear, while at the same time expanding their support amongst “values voters” who’s backing for Bush in 2004 denied the Dems a string of swing states. However with such a resolutely moderate ticket it would be possible that a liberal/left third party candidate could harm them in the same way Nader did in 2000 against Gore.

Facing a Warner/Lincoln ticket, the GOP would be well placed to head off a challenge to their solid grip on the southern states with a ticket lead by Frist and Sanford… but with a moderate democratic ticket Frist would need to expand the GOPs support from 04 amongst moderate voters and it is likely that with his reliance on the religious right Frist might find this hard to do.        

Overall the electoral map for a Frist/Sanford vs Warner/ Lincoln ticket would have to look something like this IMHO…

      

[Joe Republic]

Warner/Lincoln