Kerry vs Sanford
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Poll
Question: Who wins?
#1
(R) Sanford/Romney
 
#2
(D) Kerry/Clark
 
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Total Voters: 41

Author Topic: Kerry vs Sanford  (Read 3655 times)
Reaganfan
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« on: April 28, 2005, 11:33:00 PM »

Let's see some maps as well.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2005, 11:44:20 PM »

Here's my map:

Sanford: 331
Kerry: 207
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A18
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2005, 11:44:30 PM »

Two terrible VP picks that would almost certainly not be chosen, so I'll just ignore them.



Sanford 57%, Kerry 40%
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AuH2O
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2005, 11:48:23 PM »

I doubt Kerry would even take CA.
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A18
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« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2005, 12:00:54 AM »

I think he'd squeak out a 51-49 victory or something along those lines.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2005, 12:02:25 AM »

Maybe. But Kerry would only be a sure thing in MA.
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bgwah
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« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2005, 12:08:21 AM »

Two terrible VP picks that would almost certainly not be chosen, so I'll just ignore them.



Sanford 57%, Kerry 40%

Do you know why Washington is the only 40% shade on your map? Because you know you're pushing it. Washington doesn't vote for Republicans. California will go GOP before Washington.
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A18
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2005, 12:12:13 AM »

A 57-40 race gives Washington to the GOP, most likely.
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bgwah
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2005, 12:19:54 AM »

A 57-40 race gives Washington to the GOP, most likely.

17 point victory is unlikely. And even if it was that, California would go GOP no question! Probably Maryland too.

I guess my point was California goes GOP before Washington. The white suburban Democrat vote (particularly in the South) in CA could go GOP and give the state to Sanford...  Washington democratic base is about 49%, they just need to win a tiny amount of the independent vote to win.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2005, 12:40:09 AM »

Same result as 2004 except Sanford increases on Bush's margins slightly.  Sanford may pickup Wisconsin.
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No more McShame
FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2005, 02:31:44 AM »

Same as 2004, except Sanford takes New Hampshire.  Popular vote wider than 2004
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A18
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2005, 02:33:13 AM »

lol. Anyone who actually thinks that is nuts.
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2005, 05:17:02 AM »

I doubt Kerry would even take CA.
Hahahahaha
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MODU
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« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2005, 07:06:12 AM »


Hmmm . . . I think it has less to do with which guy wins which state and more with voter turn out.  Kerry is damaged goods, and Sanford really doesn't seem like the candidate that could motivate weak voters to the polls.  If those two are the candidates, then I think we'd have less than a 40% voter turnout on election day.
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jokerman
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2005, 07:07:17 AM »

Here's my map:

Sanford: 331
Kerry: 207
I have to agree with Naso, except I'd give Minnesota to Kerry.
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opebo
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« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2005, 08:04:04 AM »

In 2008?  269 to 269

In 2004, it would look exactly like the Bush/Kerry map of 2004.
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BRTD
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« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2005, 09:43:32 AM »

Wow, I thought Sanford was overrated but not to the level where people'd expect him to take California and New Jersey. Why would those states love a southernor from the state known for Bob Jones University and Strom Thurmond?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2005, 10:51:49 AM »

Sanford I think lived in NJ for a while. In any case, for whatever reason, people seem unable to grasp the idea that landslides can and DO happen.

The point isn't so much Sanford as Kerry vs. good Republican. And that would be a massacre of 1984 proportions.

Too bad jfern and brtd weren't around (at least on the internet, seeing as it didn't exist) to claim Reagan couldn't win 49 states. And actually he won all 50 but voter fraud put Mondale over in Minnesota.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2005, 11:22:21 AM »

What exactly has Sanford done that would put him up there with Reagan?
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BRTD
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« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2005, 11:32:59 AM »
« Edited: April 29, 2005, 11:37:17 AM by Senate Candidate BRTD »

Sanford I think lived in NJ for a while. In any case, for whatever reason, people seem unable to grasp the idea that landslides can and DO happen.

The point isn't so much Sanford as Kerry vs. good Republican. And that would be a massacre of 1984 proportions.

Too bad jfern and brtd weren't around (at least on the internet, seeing as it didn't exist) to claim Reagan couldn't win 49 states. And actually he won all 50 but voter fraud put Mondale over in Minnesota.

oh wow, he lived in a state. That sure helped Bush in CT.

If Sanford was an incumbent sitting where Reagan was in 1984, then he could win a landslide. But he's not, and if Bush's ratings are the same as they are now in 2008, no Republican is winning a landslide.

I still want someone to explain WHY Sanford is such an amazing candidate and what makes him better than say, Frist.

Might I also point out a true massive landslide on the scale of 1984 hasn't happened ever happened with a non-incumbent, I guess one could make a case that 1964 wasn't really a case with an incumbent, but that was also obviously a completely different situation from an entirely open race.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2005, 11:42:34 AM »

1980 was actually a pretty big massacre, as was 1952, as was 1920 at least in popular vote, but not so much electoral due to the South's Democratic strength. Granted 1980 involved an incumbent.

Sanford is not really a known quantity but has early support based on his smarts, appearance, political savvy, and reformist ways. A Kerry retread would be a complete nightmare for Democrats... hyperbole is almost impossible in describing how bad Kerry would do.

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BRTD
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« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2005, 11:48:23 AM »

not on a 1984 level and in the other cases the losing party was the incumbent party and the incumbent was very unpopular. Bush isn't as unpopular now as Truman and Wilson were, but if his approval ratings are low-mid 40s in 2008 as of now, no Republican is winning a landslide.

It's pretty ridiculous to expect Kerry to do that bad when he already has 48% of the vote. I don't think he'd win, but he's not going to lose around 7% to a Republican as conservative as Bush.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2005, 01:05:40 PM »

Kerry would lose in two ways: independent support and core Democratic turnout. He actually did pretty well in 2004 in an absolute sense, Bush just did better. But in a Kerry repeat, particularly since current plans have us out of Iraq before 2008, he would lose a lot of support... he would be older, with an even longer record, with all his old gaffes and of course some new, and he STILL hasn't released the military records he promised on national TV to release.

The 2004 election was about Bush, but I don't think that will have much bearing on 2008 if the economy is at least OK and we're out of Iraq. A fresh face won't really have Bush's baggage because, as opposed to the normal situation, there is no VP to run. Kerry was NEVER popular, Bush was just unpopular with 48% of the voting population.

Without even blinking I would bet $5,000 on Kerry to win single-digit states. Maybe he could get up to 7 or 8, but I doubt it. He could probably even lose Massachussetts if he ran a bad campaign and the Greens had someone on the ballot.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #23 on: April 29, 2005, 02:14:31 PM »

He could probably even lose Massachussetts if he ran a bad campaign and the Greens had someone on the ballot.

Now Ive heard it all.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #24 on: April 29, 2005, 03:44:43 PM »

Bush did better in 9 states than Kerry did in MA, and that was a close election.
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