Last time a VP cost a state?
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  Last time a VP cost a state?
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Author Topic: Last time a VP cost a state?  (Read 4225 times)
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« on: April 11, 2015, 10:12:01 PM »

What do you believe was the last time a running-mate cost a candidate a state?
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2015, 10:21:31 PM »

What do you believe was the last time a running-mate cost a candidate a state?

Palin cost Mcaain Indiana, and North Carolina

Quale cost Bush : All the states he lost by 2 points or less
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Hydera
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2015, 01:00:18 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2015, 01:02:11 AM by Hydera »

Hypothetically, Cheney being a meh speaker and not a really good VP choice probably costed Bush, Wisconsin twice, and New mexico once. Its not like bush was in danger of ever losing the great plains ever. A better VP choice heck even mccain back in 2000 despite mccain refusing probably due to the tough fought out primary between him and bush. Might of been able to take New Mexico and Wisconsin for Bush.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2015, 10:26:08 AM »

What do you believe was the last time a running-mate cost a candidate a state?

Palin cost Mcaain Indiana, and North Carolina

Quale cost Bush : All the states he lost by 2 points or less

Which was a grand total on one. WA was 50-48
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2015, 10:45:13 AM »

Mondale probably would've won Massachusetts and Rhode Island if he had picked someone other than Ferraro
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Vega
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2015, 10:59:48 AM »

Mondale probably would've won Massachusetts and Rhode Island if he had picked someone other than Ferraro

He would have had to pick someone from New England for it to make a difference in MA and RI. Likely even someone from those two states.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2015, 11:22:27 AM »

Kemp cost Dole KY and NV.
Lieberman cost Gore FL.
Cheney cost Bush NM, WI and IA.
Palin cost McCain NC.
Biden cost Obama MO.
Ryan cost Romney FL.



And your proof of this? Or is this a joke?

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2015, 01:20:10 PM »

Palin cost McCain NC and IN
Edwards cost Kerry OH

Quayle cost H Bush OH and NV in 1992
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2015, 03:25:24 PM »

Palin costing McCain Indiana and North Carolina was the last time. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2015, 03:54:39 PM »

She almost lost him Missouri and Montana as well.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2015, 04:04:51 PM »

Can't recall any time a VP nominee won or lost a state. Might be zero cases in the last 50 years.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2015, 04:27:40 PM »

Maybe if McGovern avoided his VP fiasco he could have won MN or RI. It's hard to see any other state voting McGovern in 1972 though.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2015, 08:08:53 PM »

Kemp cost Dole KY and NV.
Lieberman cost Gore FL.
Cheney cost Bush NM, WI and IA.
Palin cost McCain NC.
Biden cost Obama MO.
Ryan cost Romney FL.
And your proof of this? Or is this a joke?
Well, none of these running mates really "cost" a state, however, if a better VP candidate was picked, those states could have been won.

As long as we lack any kind of evidence and are just speculating, one could argue that FL was only close in 2000 because of Lieberman and that Bush would have won it had Gore picked another running mate.

Other than Bob Graham, who almost certainly would have swung a couple hundred more votes in his home state.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2015, 09:07:15 PM »

I think Lieberman could have cost Gore West Virginia.
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2015, 02:21:37 PM »

2012:  Ryan / FL - Medicare
2008: Palin - FL is a strong possibility.  IN and NC also, though she also helped turnout there for McCain.
2004: Cheney - WI
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2015, 03:52:33 PM »

Lieberman was a great VP pick for Florida, all the elderly Jews in southern Florida loved him. Gore has set the Democrat victory margin in Palm Beach and Broward which has yet to be broken since.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2015, 04:53:15 PM »

I think Lieberman could have cost Gore West Virginia.

Gore and his global warming cost WV
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2015, 04:55:41 PM »

The way to tell id did the state's PVI change during that election versus the previous elections?

If A state went from R+1 to D+1 in one cycle, it might be due to a bad GOP VP.

States' PVIs are remarkably stable with slow changes to states like VA, CO.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2015, 05:08:20 PM »

I think Lieberman could have cost Gore West Virginia.

Gun control cost Gore West Virginia, and probably Tennessee and Arkansas. The NRA was enraged about post-Columbine calls by the Clinton administration for more restriction, and focused sharply on advertising in swing states that year.
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DS0816
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2015, 05:09:31 PM »

Palin costing McCain Indiana and North Carolina was the last time. 

More so with Indiana.

The raw-vote margin in 2004 Indiana, carried by George W. Bush with a percentage-points margin of R+20.68, was 510,427.

Sarah Palin helped John McCain lose the state in 2008.
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shua
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2015, 05:57:00 PM »

Palin costing McCain Indiana and North Carolina was the last time. 

More so with Indiana.

The raw-vote margin in 2004 Indiana, carried by George W. Bush with a percentage-points margin of R+20.68, was 510,427.

Sarah Palin helped John McCain lose the state in 2008.

The change was greater with Indiana between the two elections. That doesn't mean it has to do with Palin.   
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2015, 11:25:24 AM »

The way to tell id did the state's PVI change during that election versus the previous elections?

If A state went from R+1 to D+1 in one cycle, it might be due to a bad GOP VP.

States' PVIs are remarkably stable with slow changes to states like VA, CO.

Dems are still smarting over the loss of OH, which would have gave Kerry the election, had Edwards been the attack dog during Kerry's swithboating, and performed better in the debate against Cheney.

Just like Quayle who cost Bush I, OH and NV, in 1992, these were the two VP's that did the most damage.

Warner or Bob Graham, who weren't chosen would have been better in 2000 and 2004.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2015, 11:37:24 AM »

I still haven't been persuaded of a single case where a VP choice won or lost a state.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2015, 12:01:55 PM »

The way to tell id did the state's PVI change during that election versus the previous elections?

If A state went from R+1 to D+1 in one cycle, it might be due to a bad GOP VP.

States' PVIs are remarkably stable with slow changes to states like VA, CO.

Dems are still smarting over the loss of OH, which would have gave Kerry the election, had Edwards been the attack dog during Kerry's swithboating, and performed better in the debate against Cheney.

Just like Quayle who cost Bush I, OH and NV, in 1992, these were the two VP's that did the most damage.

Warner or Bob Graham, who weren't chosen would have been better in 2000 and 2004.

That is nonsense. OH didnt turn based on one VP debate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2015, 12:05:40 PM »

I said concerning swithboating, attack ads being launched against Kerry.

Edwards wasn't the Joe Biden to go out there, like Biden did against Palin and Paul Ryan, that can simply go after others in which a VP should have.  Biden was simply the best attack dog out there next to Dick Cheney.  Which Edwards was clearly not.

Bob Graham or Warner would have went to task with Cheney on the Abu Gharib prison abuse, in which Bob Graham was clearly good at.
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