When is the next global recession and how severe is it?

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think it will be soon and it will be severe...but I base this more on the general probability of something big triggering a panic due to the constant increase in significant world events.  A very strong El Niño, for example, would bust the legs off of our wobbly economy.  The last super El Niño coincided with the 1997 Asian financial crisis.   That summer Borneo burned under intense drought triggering the first case of massive pollution that is continent wide now every day.

A similar event could happen this year!  Except we're hungrier now and everyone is on edge.

Otherwise the economy will limp along a bit longer before it just unravels into a crisis.

How about you?  Perhaps you're more optimistic.

[King]

What goes up must come down, and since most of the world has yet to go up from the 2008 crash, I'd say we're a good decade away from having to come down again.

[Oakvale]

...

[t_host1]

  The ‘Pimco Bond People’ interviewed on CNBC, I think it was Friday, maybe Thursday, says, the game of chicken is the game. , The SELL, the cash out is here and greed has its finger on the button.

 Yes, I translated the pimco interview; understand pimco is a vender of the fed.  

 Understand also, that if it were not for the annuity inflow's of retirement payments to the market, the first in - first out for a fee market, the market would be at the pre-consumer banking model before the conversion to the investment banking present model. That would put the true hard currency reality price of the market in the 7000-9000 DOW range.    

[Antonio the Sixth]

  The ‘Pimco Bond People’ interviewed on CNBC, I think it was Friday, maybe Thursday, says, the game of chicken is the game. , The SELL, the cash out is here and greed has its finger on the button.

 Yes, I translated the pimco interview; understand pimco is a vender of the fed. 

 Understand also, that if it were not for the annuity inflow's of retirement payments to the market, the first in - first out for a fee market, the market would be at the pre-consumer banking model before the conversion to the investment banking present model. That would put the true hard currency reality price of the market in the 7000-9000 DOW range.   

JAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAO

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

We're still in the midst of a global economic slowdown. There aren't many nations that have experienced a sustained "recovery" since 2008. I'd argue that anemic economic growth will be the new normal for the next 5-10 years with a few exceptions here and there. As a result, I don't think there's any possibility of a global recession over the next decade or two. We're still recoiling from the last one.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What goes up must come down, and since most of the world has yet to go up from the 2008 crash, I'd say we're a good decade away from having to come down again.

Didn't the US sink into another recession in 1938 after some years of growth in the immediate great depression era ?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

What goes up must come down, and since most of the world has yet to go up from the 2008 crash, I'd say we're a good decade away from having to come down again.

Didn't the US sink into another recession in 1938 after some years of growth in the immediate great depression era ?

This was discussed at length in another thread. I believe King's official position was that it was caused by a completely misguided tightening of the money supply - something that makes sense to most but can be disputed. I tend to fall into that camp myself at the moment, but I'm not sure it was the sole cause.

It appears the Fed will continue to push off such a solution further and further, but I wouldn't be shockey if it happened again. I doubt it would be nearly as severe though.

[Simfan34]

  The ‘Pimco Bond People’ interviewed on CNBC, I think it was Friday, maybe Thursday, says, the game of chicken is the game. , The SELL, the cash out is here and greed has its finger on the button.

 Yes, I translated the pimco interview; understand pimco is a vender of the fed. 

 Understand also, that if it were not for the annuity inflow's of retirement payments to the market, the first in - first out for a fee market, the market would be at the pre-consumer banking model before the conversion to the investment banking present model. That would put the true hard currency reality price of the market in the 7000-9000 DOW range.   

JAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAOJAO

Okay, that's enough now.

[All Along The Watchtower]

November 4, 2016, and very severe.

[Ban my account ffs!]

What goes up must come down, and since most of the world has yet to go up from the 2008 crash, I'd say we're a good decade away from having to come down again.

On a descending set of stairs there is only down then out...then down and out again.  Don't expect any uppy up for a good while.  We've used up the earth.

Saudi Arabia has enough gold that it can pump oil at par for a while.  They've said as much.  And they run the show on oil.

Jao: its interesting to me how Saud is like Sodom and Khamenei is similar to Gomorrah.

Saudi Arabia is full of men committing sodomy (Saudistic rape of other men and women and children) because of the oppression and awful religious law they force on the Arabs.  Orgies are common behind closed doors in Iran under the Khomenei regime of Persian suppression.

I begin to understand the Bible a little better.

[sg0508]

Before the '16 election, I believe we sink into a recession, although I don't think it's the "beginning of the end" depression. That is coming, but it won't be this go around.

[RR1997]

Should be by the end of this year or early 2016

Please f[inks]ng stop.

I'm tired of far right-wingers trying to predict a recession every year. Remember when the next Great Recession was supposed to happen in 2014? Just predict a global recession every year, and eventually you'll be correct.

Anyways, the next global recession will probably not happen for another decade or so.

What goes up must come down, and since most of the world has yet to go up from the 2008 crash, I'd say we're a good decade away from having to come down again.

^

This sums up my views pretty well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

While I would like to agree, I do think that there are factors that can cause a contraction on top of a contraction or an incomplete recovery from a previous contraction.

Natural forces toping the list like a drought for instance.

[Yelnoc]

Judging by the ridiculous exuberance of Silicon Valley investors, I'm going to bet the next recession will be another tech bust. The "App Bubble" could burst as soon as next year.

[muon2]

According to the IMF, a "global recession" would mean that real GDP growth for the whole world was less than 3%, and by this definition there have been six since 1970: 1974-1975, 1980-1983, 1990-1993, 1998, 2001-2002, and 2008-2009.

You'll notice that the U.S. had recessions during all of those periods, except 1998 when we were on fire. So the world can easily have a global recession, with or without us.


The most likely even to trigger another global recession would be if Europe falls off a cliff, which is not a very outlandish scenario. However, Europe will probably keep grinding through the rest of this decade and weighing everything down, while the U.S. keeps chugging along, with developing countries rollercoastering.

I do expect a minor recession in the U.S. sometime before the end of this decade, but I don't expect it to be anywhere near as bad as the Great Recession, let alone cause a global recession.

I'm amused at all the posts that say there won't be another global recession for a decade or more. If you look at the list in the post I've quoted, then it's pretty clear that the longest period in the last 40+ years without a global recession was seven years from 1983 to 1990. We are almost 6 years past the end of the last recession. Adding another decade would make it a record recovery period by more than double the historical best. That seems farfetched to me.

Statistically the most likely answer is that the next global recession is due within a year. Since 2008-09 was the most severe recession on the list, it is more likely that the next one will not be as severe.

[King]

I'm amused at all the posts that say there won't be another global recession for a decade or more. If you look at the list in the post I've quoted, then it's pretty clear that the longest period in the last 40+ years without a global recession was seven years from 1983 to 1990. We are almost 6 years past the end of the last recession. Adding another decade would make it a record recovery period by more than double the historical best. That seems farfetched to me.

I've already stated why I don't believe that type of analysis to be correct. Downturns happen because of overaggressive upturns not because of some prophetic timing. We've never had a recession-free period longer than 7 years because we've never had a giant recession followed by slow steady growth before. Recessions in recent US history are generally followed by 7+% GDP growth years and other unsustainable booms that make us due again. We are not experiencing that at this moment. There is still too much untapped GDP potential in this economy in many sectors.

Much has been made in general about how our rebound from the 2008 crash has been atypical. If that is the case, the business cycle should also be atypical.

[muon2]

I'm amused at all the posts that say there won't be another global recession for a decade or more. If you look at the list in the post I've quoted, then it's pretty clear that the longest period in the last 40+ years without a global recession was seven years from 1983 to 1990. We are almost 6 years past the end of the last recession. Adding another decade would make it a record recovery period by more than double the historical best. That seems farfetched to me.

I've already stated why I don't believe that type of analysis to be correct. Downturns happen because of overaggressive upturns not because of some prophetic timing. We've never had a recession-free period longer than 7 years because we've never had a giant recession followed by slow steady growth before. Recessions in recent US history are generally followed by 7+% GDP growth years and other unsustainable booms that make us due again. We are not experiencing that at this moment. There is still too much untapped GDP potential in this economy in many sectors.

Much has been made in general about how our rebound from the 2008 crash has been atypical. If that is the case, the business cycle should also be atypical.

I stand by my statement as a matter of statistics. There's no question that deviations from the average are to be expected. But the greater the deviation, the less likely it is to occur. Since 1970 only one year (1984) had real US GDP growth in excess of 7%. The economic growth in the US in 2010 (2.5%) is not so different as the first year recovery from the tech bust in 2003 (2.8%).

[Beet]

You're talking about a very small sample size.

If global growth does slow down, the most likely culprit would be China, which is most overdue for a downturn, having 35 years of growth rates averaging nearly 10% annually. The CPC's policy of trying to keep the renminbi competitive with the dollar will also have a deflationary, and negative impact on China's economy. However, the closest analogy would be to 1998, which hardly effected the U.S.

In fact, a recession in China would be a good thing if it resulted in a defusing of the rising tensions with the U.S., or undermined the credibility and support of the CPC, since its only claim to legitimacy since 1989 has been its ability to deliver economic growth.

[King]

I stand by my statement as a matter of statistics. There's no question that deviations from the average are to be expected. But the greater the deviation, the less likely it is to occur. Since 1970 only one year (1984) had real US GDP growth in excess of 7%. The economic growth in the US in 2010 (2.5%) is not so different as the first year recovery from the tech bust in 2003 (2.8%).

The 2003 recession was really a recession with a small r.

It cannot be understated how much we lost during the 2008-09 crash, which I believe many people who predict we're due for a recession are doing. 

Here is a quick spreadsheet I made, which extrapolates if we maintained 2.5% annual GDP growth (a reasonable number), after the year 1999--which was a year of full employment, peace, and ideally the US economy's potential. As you can see, even with the dotcom bubble recession, we more or less maintained this prosperity level, but after the 2008 crash we completely fell off the wagon.



The economy is running well under $1 trillion GDP short of it's potential. The idea of us going through another recession any time soon is nuts. There's too much capital and human potential still sitting out there.

Recessions happen because they need to happen not because some arbitrary period of time has passed.

[Marnetmar]

Next month. If not then, the next month. If not then, the next, etc. etc. etc.

[Maxwell]

Next month. If not then, the next month. If not then, the next, etc. etc. etc.

- Ron Paul

[Deus Naturae]

Next month. If not then, the next month. If not then, the next, etc. etc. etc.

- Ron Paul

As far as I know, Ron never predicted an exact date for any crash, though he did specifically predict the collapse of the housing bubble in a 2005 rant before Congress.

[Ban my account ffs!]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2015/05/15/el-nino-extreme-weather-commodities-futures/27356169/

Heavy rains in San Diego in May are very rare.  And heavy rains in the desert southwest in their dry season are rare.

Plume after plume of deep tropical Pacific moisture keep feeding over northern Mexico into Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas.  And there are pockets of sub surface water some 7°C above normal near the coast of Ecuador...while the sea level has dropped a foot east of the Philippines...indicative of a strong El Niño event.

Typical strong El Niño impacts:

Monsoon failure in south/southeast Asia

Drought in Australia

Drought in the Amazon

Drought in the Pacific Northwest

Flooding in the deserts of Peru and Chili

Flooding in the Mexican and SW American deserts

Mudslides in California

Cool and wet in the southern US

Warm during winter across the northern US

Heavy rains in the horn of Africa

Fewer Atlantic hurricanes

Enhanced western US summer monsoon

More eastern Pacific hurricanes

And myriad tertiary impacts everywhere else that disrupt normal weather patterns.

[Comrade Funk]

Next month. If not then, the next month. If not then, the next, etc. etc. etc.

- Ron Paul

- Every Gold-loving libertarian