When is the next global recession and how severe is it?

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think it will be soon and it will be severe...but I base this more on the general probability of something big triggering a panic due to the constant increase in significant world events.  A very strong El Niño, for example, would bust the legs off of our wobbly economy.  The last super El Niño coincided with the 1997 Asian financial crisis.   That summer Borneo burned under intense drought triggering the first case of massive pollution that is continent wide now every day.

A similar event could happen this year!  Except we're hungrier now and everyone is on edge.

Otherwise the economy will limp along a bit longer before it just unravels into a crisis.

How about you?  Perhaps you're more optimistic.

[Ban my account ffs!]

What goes up must come down, and since most of the world has yet to go up from the 2008 crash, I'd say we're a good decade away from having to come down again.

On a descending set of stairs there is only down then out...then down and out again.  Don't expect any uppy up for a good while.  We've used up the earth.

Saudi Arabia has enough gold that it can pump oil at par for a while.  They've said as much.  And they run the show on oil.

Jao: its interesting to me how Saud is like Sodom and Khamenei is similar to Gomorrah.

Saudi Arabia is full of men committing sodomy (Saudistic rape of other men and women and children) because of the oppression and awful religious law they force on the Arabs.  Orgies are common behind closed doors in Iran under the Khomenei regime of Persian suppression.

I begin to understand the Bible a little better.

[Ban my account ffs!]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2015/05/15/el-nino-extreme-weather-commodities-futures/27356169/

Heavy rains in San Diego in May are very rare.  And heavy rains in the desert southwest in their dry season are rare.

Plume after plume of deep tropical Pacific moisture keep feeding over northern Mexico into Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas.  And there are pockets of sub surface water some 7°C above normal near the coast of Ecuador...while the sea level has dropped a foot east of the Philippines...indicative of a strong El Niño event.

Typical strong El Niño impacts:

Monsoon failure in south/southeast Asia

Drought in Australia

Drought in the Amazon

Drought in the Pacific Northwest

Flooding in the deserts of Peru and Chili

Flooding in the Mexican and SW American deserts

Mudslides in California

Cool and wet in the southern US

Warm during winter across the northern US

Heavy rains in the horn of Africa

Fewer Atlantic hurricanes

Enhanced western US summer monsoon

More eastern Pacific hurricanes

And myriad tertiary impacts everywhere else that disrupt normal weather patterns.