Kerry vs Sanford

[bgwah]

Two terrible VP picks that would almost certainly not be chosen, so I'll just ignore them.



Sanford 57%, Kerry 40%

Do you know why Washington is the only 40% shade on your map? Because you know you're pushing it. Washington doesn't vote for Republicans. California will go GOP before Washington.

[bgwah]

A 57-40 race gives Washington to the GOP, most likely.

17 point victory is unlikely. And even if it was that, California would go GOP no question! Probably Maryland too.

I guess my point was California goes GOP before Washington. The white suburban Democrat vote (particularly in the South) in CA could go GOP and give the state to Sanford...  Washington democratic base is about 49%, they just need to win a tiny amount of the independent vote to win.

[bgwah]

Best for Sanford:

366-172



Best for Kerry

314-224

[bgwah]

What is up with this idea that every election from now on is going to be almost exactly like the last one?

Sanford wins in a landslide because of concern about the deficit, the border situation, his promise to maintain whatever tax reform the GOP gets through Congress, the lack of an unpopular foreign policy situation, and his outsider take-on-the-legislature approach. He's the kind of guy who can get into fights with Republican legislators over spending and promote federalism with credibility.

No.

Bush loves illegal immigrants and defecit spending and that will hurt Sanford. Infact, those things would probably help Kerry!

[bgwah]

Why does it matter?? Kerry's chances of being re-nominated are sooo tiny. You're right, he's a weak candidate, and most Democrats will realize this and pick someone else.

But Sanford won't crack 57%. I see him maxing out at 53% or so.