Kerry vs Sanford

[AuH2O]

I doubt Kerry would even take CA.

[AuH2O]

Maybe. But Kerry would only be a sure thing in MA.

[AuH2O]

Sanford I think lived in NJ for a while. In any case, for whatever reason, people seem unable to grasp the idea that landslides can and DO happen.

The point isn't so much Sanford as Kerry vs. good Republican. And that would be a massacre of 1984 proportions.

Too bad jfern and brtd weren't around (at least on the internet, seeing as it didn't exist) to claim Reagan couldn't win 49 states. And actually he won all 50 but voter fraud put Mondale over in Minnesota.

[AuH2O]

1980 was actually a pretty big massacre, as was 1952, as was 1920 at least in popular vote, but not so much electoral due to the South's Democratic strength. Granted 1980 involved an incumbent.

Sanford is not really a known quantity but has early support based on his smarts, appearance, political savvy, and reformist ways. A Kerry retread would be a complete nightmare for Democrats... hyperbole is almost impossible in describing how bad Kerry would do.

[AuH2O]

Kerry would lose in two ways: independent support and core Democratic turnout. He actually did pretty well in 2004 in an absolute sense, Bush just did better. But in a Kerry repeat, particularly since current plans have us out of Iraq before 2008, he would lose a lot of support... he would be older, with an even longer record, with all his old gaffes and of course some new, and he STILL hasn't released the military records he promised on national TV to release.

The 2004 election was about Bush, but I don't think that will have much bearing on 2008 if the economy is at least OK and we're out of Iraq. A fresh face won't really have Bush's baggage because, as opposed to the normal situation, there is no VP to run. Kerry was NEVER popular, Bush was just unpopular with 48% of the voting population.

Without even blinking I would bet $5,000 on Kerry to win single-digit states. Maybe he could get up to 7 or 8, but I doubt it. He could probably even lose Massachussetts if he ran a bad campaign and the Greens had someone on the ballot.

[AuH2O]

Bush did better in 9 states than Kerry did in MA, and that was a close election.

[AuH2O]

If we're not in Iraq in numbers, no, people will not care if it's ed up.

[AuH2O]

Thanks for clarifying brtd's continued ignorance, lewis.

And no one SAYS they're running yet-- like I said my favorite is Rendell, who said it was possible 'to the extent one can run for President post-2006.'