The election of 1992 without Perrot

[Sir Mohamed]

Would Bill Clinton have won the 1992 election without a Ross Perrot candidacy? He won just 43% (Bush 37%) of the vote and Perrot was popular among Republicans. Or was Bush 41 just to weak to get reelected against a charismatic Clinton?

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton wins by a Bush 2004 margin (285-253) without Perot.

The election would have been much closer, but not enough for Bush to win.

[Sumner 1868]

Clinton wins by a Bush 2004 margin (285-253) without Perot.

The election would have been much closer, but not enough for Bush to win.

I think that Louisiana and Ohio still vote for Clinton, but otherwise this is about right.

[YaBoyNY]

New Jersey would likely still vote Clinton as well.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

1992

Bill Clinton / Al Gore          51.2    346 
GHW Bush / Dan Quayle    47.7    192
others                                1.1

[YaBoyNY]

New Jersey would likely still vote Clinton as well.

I doubt it. Perot took enough votes from conservative whites in OH and NJ to give the states to Bush. He got very few votes from black voters there.

Perot took voters about equally from both sides nationally, but regionally it was lopsided. In the West, he most likely gave Clinton Montana and Colorado. In the Northeast, he took more from would be Clinton voters.