Nate Silver: 2016 is a tossup; most conventional wisdom analysis is flimsy

[bobloblaw]

Nate, you Republican hack! How dare you suggest that the election will be "competitive"? Hillary is inevitable, get over it, right-wingers!

2000, was a Lean GOP, and young latinos and blacks made it close, in FL. All she needs is that same enthusiam from those to close the deal in CO, NV and Pa, NH.

Uh, no. 2000 was a pure Toss-up. George W. Bush almost blew it because he ran a god awful campaign and took FL for granted. Only a joke like Bush could have lost the election. McCain would have crushed Gore.

Bush had an epic lead at this point in 1999. He turned that lead into a 0.51 point loss.

.49 but who is counting. Dukakis had an epic lead too and lost. Polling in nonincumbnet elections is very fluid. But is Hillary an incumbent?

[bobloblaw]

I don't see how it's a toss up when all the Democrats need are the Kerry states + VA, NM, NV.  

New Mexico and Nevada are practically freebies at this point.   That just leaves Virginia, which is probably one of the most obvious trending states in the country.    Even if the national vote shifts 3% toward the GOP from 2012, Virginia would still be winnable.  

It's just not a workable map for the Republicans.   They NEEEEEED a realignment.

Again youre assuming that states are some how fixed in their voting patterns independent of the national popular vote.

The realignment will come when one of three things happens
1. Dems preside over a recession
2. Dems preside over a foreign policy debacle
3. Demographics result in more whites voting GOP and states flipping. Older white states like MI, PA, WI, IA become solid GOP and AZ, GA, NC become Dem.

As whites decline as a % of the population, white will give a larger and larger % to the GOP. In fact it is already happening albeit slowly. By 2030-2040, I could see the GOP getting 70-75% of the white vote.

[Sumner 1868]

I don't see how it's a toss up when all the Democrats need are the Kerry states + VA, NM, NV.  

New Mexico and Nevada are practically freebies at this point.   That just leaves Virginia, which is probably one of the most obvious trending states in the country.    Even if the national vote shifts 3% toward the GOP from 2012, Virginia would still be winnable.  

It's just not a workable map for the Republicans.   They NEEEEEED a realignment.

Again youre assuming that states are some how fixed in their voting patterns independent of the national popular vote.

The realignment will come when one of three things happens
1. Dems preside over a recession
2. Dems preside over a foreign policy debacle
3. Demographics result in more whites voting GOP and states flipping. Older white states like MI, PA, WI, IA become solid GOP and AZ, GA, NC become Dem.

As whites decline as a % of the population, white will give a larger and larger % to the GOP. In fact it is already happening albeit slowly. By 2030-2040, I could see the GOP getting 70-75% of the white vote.

That's simply not happening.

[Likely Voter]

If the GOP is pinning its hopes on getting 70%+ of whites it is doomed. The GOP need to find a way to get to 60/40/10 (as in 60% whites/40% latinos&asians/10% blacks). That is realistic and roughly around where Bush Jr was in 2004 (he got 58/44/11).

[Nyvin]

I don't see how it's a toss up when all the Democrats need are the Kerry states + VA, NM, NV.  

New Mexico and Nevada are practically freebies at this point.   That just leaves Virginia, which is probably one of the most obvious trending states in the country.    Even if the national vote shifts 3% toward the GOP from 2012, Virginia would still be winnable.  

It's just not a workable map for the Republicans.   They NEEEEEED a realignment.

The realignment will come when one of three things happens
1. Dems preside over a recession
2. Dems preside over a foreign policy debacle
3. Demographics result in more whites voting GOP and states flipping. Older white states like MI, PA, WI, IA become solid GOP and AZ, GA, NC become Dem.

As whites decline as a % of the population, white will give a larger and larger % to the GOP. In fact it is already happening albeit slowly. By 2030-2040, I could see the GOP getting 70-75% of the white vote.

Or...maybe...

4.  The GOP is no longer competitive in national elections and simply has to alter it's party's policy stances in order to appeal to a broader base. 

Of the four,   I would say 4 has the best chance of actually happening.

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They pretty much have been for the past 30-35 years now, at least since 1980.    The 90's elections were kind of wonky due to Perot but other then that it's been the same ol'red state/blue state we've seen over and over.