Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,344
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« on: April 13, 2015, 03:54:01 PM » |
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« edited: April 13, 2015, 04:21:14 PM by Likely Voter »
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Of course it is right to say that Hillary's GE victory is not 'inevitable' but it seems empirically true that she has advantages.
You may be able to dismiss the 'blue wall' as a concept, but one only need to look at how money was spent in 2012 to see that the GOP spent 47% of their money on the GOP 'must win' core/defense states (NC/FL/OH). But the Dems only spent 12% on their core/defense states (PA/WI/NV/MI). This shows that essentially the battle is being waged much more on the GOP side of the ledger, giving the Dems a clear advantage.
As with regards to demographics. They may not be 'destiny' but again it is undeniable that the demographic groups that tend to vote Dem are growing faster than the ones voting GOP. So again they get an advantage.
With the economy continuing to improve, all in all I would say that this adds up to the Dems having about a 60% chance of winning, which happens to be right where the odds makers put it (again follow the money).
Of course Hillary winning the Dem nomination may only be around 85%, so then perhaps it is around 50/50 that she is the next POTUS.
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