Nate Silver: 2016 is a tossup; most conventional wisdom analysis is flimsy

[DS0816]

Uh, in 2011 it did seem like Obama would lose to most people. That was like a year after the 2010 blowout.

There are people who have been here for years who haven't learned. And they're not interested. Midterm elections and presidential elections are not the same. And, no, it didn't seem like Barack Obama would lose re-election to "most people"; it seemed like Barack Obama would lose re-election to most ignorant people.