Nate Silver: 2016 is a tossup; most conventional wisdom analysis is flimsy

[King]

This analysis is pure wishful thinking. He doesn't even try to add any data to this beyond a graph that shows she's already more popular than the entire field, but says "eh, don't pay attention to that" for no reason.

"Yea, Obama's approval ratings are middling and have been for years but you know but they could decline more... (, no reasoning given)"

"Yea, the economy is supposed to matter but I'd warn against that... (, no reasoning given)"

"Yea, Democrats have this advantage with non-whites, but maybe they don't we'll see... (, no reasoning given)"

"Yea, Romney got completely tarnished by a bunch of crazies in the primary last time, but it won't happen this time... (, no reasoning given)"

"Jeb Bush is just moderate enough to be more popular than Clinton (, lmao)"

boboblaw, stop complaining! Who cares about "statistics" or "facts" when it comes to Hillary? She is invincible!

If you actually read the article, you'd see Nate didn't bother to compile any statistics or facts and is just op-eding using his name as a reason to trust it.

Joke article.

[King]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election
by Nate Silver

NOV. 3, 2011

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Nate does a fine job of adding 10 polls together and dividing by 10 to find the average, but his analysis is no better than the wish-wish media pundits he claims to hate. "This election is going to be an epic Florida 2000 tossup! Please subscribe!"

[King]

There is no firewall, it is a myth. What there is a that PA, MI, WI, IA, NH, MN have a slight D+ PVI ranging from IA at 0 to MN at +4. Where the GOP struggles in the PV not the EV. If the GOP candidate ever got 52% of the PV, all those state except MN would fall and MN would be a Dem win of about 1%.

Nate uses statistics, you use your feelings. 70% is based on what modeling??? Show me how the number was calculated. Take about rejecting science.

When is a Republican going to get to 52% though? Fact of the matter is that a Democrat can probably lose the PV by around a percentage point yet still win the EC. That by no means indicates that a Democrat is a shoo-in but rather that any Democrat starts the electoral race with a headstart independent of the various "fundamentals."

That scenario is so unlikely. It is MUCH more likely that a Republican wins the EC but loses the PV.

And it is MUCH more likely that a Republican loses the EC and loses the PV.

[King]

There's no such thing as PV/EC advantages, guys. Take the 2000 election out of the equation and history just says, if you win the PV, you win the EC by a huge margin.

2000 is what we call an outlier. And it's just barely an outlier.  500 votes to Gore in FL, he wins the EC by a margin greater than his PV win.

[King]

Romney surged to a 4 point loss at the end. He trailed by greater before the final few weeks. Obama was always the obvious favorite to anyone paying real unbias attention.

On the day that was published, he had a 6 point lead in NBC/WSJ poll, a 6 point lead in Politico/GWU poll, and a 4 point lead in the Marist poll. It was ridiculous for Nate to analyze it as lean Romney.

[King]

Uh, in 2011 it did seem like Obama would lose to most people. That was like a year after the 2010 blowout.

Nope. Right now it's mere months after a 2014 blowout. The polls were saying Obama was going to win throughout 2011 and 2012. The only response to these polls was always "lol libtards shaking in their boots!11 polls have too many dems voting."

Nothing being said about how Hillary is going to choke is all that different than the 2011 "ignore the polls, Obama isn't getting re-elected" rhetoric. Retroactively claiming there was ever a chance for Romney is false. There was never a chance. Romney's debates and final month went as well as it could've gone. He won whites by a margin not seen since Reagan 84 and still lost by 4 overall.  Think about that.

He never had enough non-white support to win. Never. He was always below 50% of the PV. The election could've been held any day from November 6, 2011 to November 6, 2012 and Obama would've won 366 out of 366 elections.