In poll memo, Crossroads (Karl Rove) & POS (R) define 15 swing states

[Tender Branson]

As you know, Axis Research and Public Opinion Strategies conducted an extensive survey from March 22nd through March 26th in likely presidential battleground states, evaluating the key issues and trends that are affecting Americans’ perceptions as they look toward 2016. The poll also evaluated voters’ perceptions of the Democratic frontrunner for president, Hillary Clinton. This memorandum provides observations on that part of the poll.

Hillary Clinton’s polarized image is acute in key battleground states. Voters’ impressions of her are positive by just 3 net points, with 95% of voters aware of and able to articulate an opinion of her (49% favorable | 46% unfavorable). These numbers are unlikely to change dramatically in her favor because, unlike the Republican field, Clinton cannot tap a large well of voters who are currently unaware of her or without impression of her, in order to strengthen her image.

Once a Republican nominee is selected, that candidate will likely start the race in strong shape throughout these battleground states. Across the 15 states surveyed, Hillary Clinton loses against a generic Republican nominee by one point: (43% Clinton vs. 44% Republican).

Methodology

Axis Research, Inc. and Public Opinion Strategies fielded a poll with 1,003 likely 2016 general election voters distributed proportionate to voters in battleground states. Battleground states were defined as the following: AR, CO, FL, NV, IL, IA, MI, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI and WV. All interviews were conducted with live interviewers and took place from March 22nd through March 26th; 41% of all interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of error on these results is ±3.16%.

http://images.politico.com/global/2015/04/13/hillary_clinton_polling_memo_4_14_15.html

[Tender Branson]

IL ?

Maybe they meant IN ?

AR and WV are also interesting ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

290 electors including OHIO
my map 10 states

[BlueSwan]

Including IL, WV and AR here is just baffling. I bet that neither candidate will even do any campaigning in either of those states.

[Ebsy]

Missouri and Georgia should be added to this map if they are defining swing state this loosely. Probably Arizona as well.

[henster]

Missouri and Georgia should be added to this map if they are defining swing state this loosely. Probably Arizona as well.

If she's struggling in Obama states then I don't think she has a remote chance in those states especially being an already polarized figure with just a 49/46 favorability rating.

[Lief 🗽]

LOL @ Illinois, New Mexico and Nevada.

[Torie]

IL and WV take the prize for the oddest inclusions. They nose out Arkansas I guess because of the Hillary factor. Crosswinds is an SOB for not including the individual state numbers to boot (even if they have a relatively high margin of error).

[ElectionsGuy]

West Virginia and Arkansas are laughable. They're also pushing it with New Mexico and Illinois.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Yes, we are all more knowledge than Karl Rove - we already knew that. In his world, Illinois was so blue because muh home state advantage. Rauner proved that Republicans can beat the Chicago machine. Never mind the corruption and wave factors. It's easily repeatable against Ms. Clinton. Geez, he's so stupid sometimes.

[TNF]

The Democrats are not going to win West Virginia and Arkansas, Obama or no Obama. The fact that George W. Bush won both of those states by convincing margins (and in his first race against a Southern Democrat, no less) should attest to that fact. Likewise, the idea that the Republicans can win Illinois is laughable.

[IceSpear]

1) LOL Rove poll
2) LOL POS
3) LOL at trying to spin a positive favorability for Hillary as a bad thing
4 LOL at including WV, AR, NM, MI, IL as "swing states"
5) Obama also trailed generic Republican, and by a bigger margin than that

[Likely Voter]

This is clearly not a poll but a fundraising tool. Rove had a horrible record in 2012 so when he goes to the same folks asking for big money he needs something to show it isn't futile. I'm only surprised they didn't arrange itto have Hillary losing by more.

[Ebsy]

Why any Republican donor would be stupid enough to give a penny to Rove is beyond me.

[Potus]

My guess is that AR and WV are being used as sort of weather balloons. If Hillary does much better in the popular vote, it will be because of improvement in states like WV and AR, without actually taking them.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yes, we are all more knowledge than Karl Rove - we already knew that. In his world, Illinois was so blue because muh home state advantage. Rauner proved that Republicans can beat the Chicago machine. Never mind the corruption and wave factors. It's easily repeatable against Ms. Clinton. Geez, he's so stupid sometimes.

If it gets a bunch of hyper-wealthy conservatives to let him handle over a hundred million dollars in political spending, I don't think he's the stupid one...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary  303
Walker 206

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hillary is Miss Congeniality compared to most Republican hopefuls.

[/]

AR...WV...IL...

What is Karl Rove smoking?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[TomC]

Yes, this

[Ebsy]

I would change George to the lighter shade of blue and Virginia to pink, but otherwise I agree.

[Suburbia]

Including IL, WV and AR here is just baffling. I bet that neither candidate will even do any campaigning in either of those states.

WV will be a tossup soon.

[Skye]

IL? Maybe he's mistaking it for Indiana, there's no way a Republican is that close to Hillary in Chicagoland, unless he were to win by a landslide.

Also, the inclusion of AR and WV is laughable. Sure, Hillary may improve Obama's performance in both states, specially Arkansas, but there's no way she's winning those.

[Tender Branson]

I think they included MI, NV and NM because they were close or even won by Bush in 2004.

I think they included AR and WV because several polls have shown a close race between Hillary and the GOP candidates other than Huckabee.

There's no reason though to include IL (unless it was a typo and it's IN).

Hillary could also go for GA, AZ and MO - but eventually she won't win them.

Just like she won't win AR or WV (she'll do much better than Obama though).