Nevada Dems' chances of taking back state legislature

[Bojack Horseman]

I think Nevada will be quite interesting in 2016. 2014 saw only 52% of the turnout that 2012 saw as a Presidential year, so I think Democrats will at least make gains in the Assembly.

The composition numbers are identical to what they were before 2014, the only thing that's different is the party that has the majority. The Assembly was 25-14 D before with three vacancies, it's 25-17 R now. There are 42 seats, 22 needed for a majority.

The Senate on the other hand is much closer. It was 11-10 D before 2014, and now it's 11-10 R.

I'd say the Senate is Safe D, the Assembly is Lean D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Senate Lean D, Assembly Lean R

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How did the Republicans manage to do so well in Nevada after the Cliven Bundy meltdown?

[publicunofficial]

How did the Republicans manage to do so well in Nevada after the Cliven Bundy meltdown?

Absolutely no turnout among minorities or urban voters, plus not competing for Governor caused there to be nothing to draw people to the polls. People show up to vote for Governor, not because they care who controls the State Senate or who the Secretary of State is.

[Bojack Horseman]

How did the Republicans manage to do so well in Nevada after the Cliven Bundy meltdown?

Absolutely no turnout among minorities or urban voters, plus not competing for Governor caused there to be nothing to draw people to the polls. People show up to vote for Governor, not because they care who controls the State Senate or who the Secretary of State is.

Precisely this. The governor's race got just over half the turnout that the Presidential election did in 2012, and state legislative elections had even lower turnout. Nobody voted but Republicans, so Republicans won.

[Gass3268]

How did the Republicans manage to do so well in Nevada after the Cliven Bundy meltdown?

Absolutely no turnout among minorities or urban voters, plus not competing for Governor caused there to be nothing to draw people to the polls. People show up to vote for Governor, not because they care who controls the State Senate or who the Secretary of State is.

Precisely this. The governor's race got just over half the turnout that the Presidential election did in 2012, and state legislative elections had even lower turnout. Nobody voted but Republicans, so Republicans won.

It's why you shouldn't tell everyone that you are not competing for Governor.

[smoltchanov]

Probably both - Lean D. Turnout, and too many idiots among House Republican freshmen.

[Mr. Reactionary]

R+1

[Maxwell]

Senate Lean D, Assembly Lean R

[Mr.Phips]

Assembly Lean D, Senate Lean R.  The median seat in the Assembly went for Obama 55%-42% Obama.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The Assembly will swing back easily to Democrats. Only a few thousand votes were cast per district in 2014. Numerous districts were decided by less than one thousand votes, some even less than 100.

The 2016 Republicans in the Nevada Assembly are like 2014 US Senate Democrats. All of the low hanging fruit they can pick will be enough to get them a majority.

[Xing]

Lean D for both.

[Duke of York]

With Presidential level turnout its almost a near certainty the democrats will win back the state legislature. Republicans depend on low turnout in order to win.

[bobloblaw]

How did the Republicans manage to do so well in Nevada after the Cliven Bundy meltdown?

Because only in liberal bubble land did anyone give a crap.

It is possible the NV Senate goes back, but it will be only for 2 years.