NH-PPP: Walker +10

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Clinton at only 45%. Doesn't look so inevitable anymore. RUN WARREN RUN!!!!

According to this poll, Clinton is at 52% with Democrats in NH, it's the independents planning on voting in the primary dragging her down. Primaries need to be party only, this is how Obama got the nomination. Democrats should pick the Democratic candidate.

[Ebsy]

Clinton at only 45%. Doesn't look so inevitable anymore. RUN WARREN RUN!!!!

According to this poll, Clinton is at 52% with Democrat's in NH, it's the independents planning on voting in the primary dragging her down. Primaries need to be party only, this is how Obama got the nomination. Democrats should pick the Democratic candidate.

I like open primaries.

[bobloblaw]

Jeb is doing much worse than I thought possible. And Clinton's numbers would be much better if they stopped polling Warren, who isn't running.

The GOP voters despise his position on immigration and education. The rest of the voters dont want another Bush and even among conservatives there is no stomach for another Bush.

What is amazing is Jeb's political tin ear and massive sense of entitlement

[bobloblaw]

If Walker wins IA and Nh, its game over. No GOP non incumbent has pulled that off.

Despite the large number of candidates, I think the conventional wisdom is wrong. The GOP front runner and nominee will emerge early.

A sound defeat of Jeb Bush would show the GOP has repudiated the Bush years and is ready to move on.

[Maxwell]

Pretty bad for Jeb to be behind two candidates who aren't Serious™ in the most moderate state on the primary schedule.

The funny thing is that Paul and Cruz aren't doing great with Republicans. They are within the margin of error for the lead with Independents. This suggests that if there is a big abandon of Indies in the Dem primary, which is a pretty easy thing to imagine, that either of them could actually win the state.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Pretty bad for Jeb to be behind two candidates who aren't Serious™ in the most moderate state on the primary schedule.

The funny thing is that Paul and Cruz aren't doing great with Republicans. They are within the margin of error for the lead with Independents. This suggests that if there is a big abandon of Indies in the Dem primary, which is a pretty easy thing to imagine, that either of them could actually win the state.

Good analysis, but I think it's probably important to remember that there are a TON of RW independents to the right of the Republican Party. I wouldn't be surprised if more than half of Cruz's support it coming from there. Paul obviously should appeal to them as well, but he is also more likely to have a higher portion of his tally with independence coming from moderate independents so he should have a lot more room to grow due to a crossover - unless the far left independents do Cruz as a joke but I have a feeling they'll be too enthused by Sanders.