2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 03:50:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Latest 2016 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
BushCountry (I-IN)MapProfile 11-07 55 D +2 22 (-2) 12 (+2) 0 (0) 0
An Antineutrino (R-NJ)MapProfile 11-04 11 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
SupersonicVenue (R-GBR)MapProfile 11-06 3 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
reyndani (I-WI)MapProfile 11-07 16 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
RMH8824 (R-IA)MapProfile 11-07 16 D +3 21 (-3) 13 (+3) 0 (0) 0
stirling (R-GBR)Map 05-18 1 Even 24 (0) 10 (0) 0 (0) 0
IceSpear (D-PA)MapProfile 11-07 7 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
axlee73 (I-GA)Map 11-07 15 D +1 23 (-1) 11 (+1) 0 (0) 0
SJerni (D-CO)MapProfile 11-07 6 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
Chrome (C-NY)MapProfile 11-07 18 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ruby2014 (I-OH)MapProfile 11-08 10 R +1 25 (+1) 9 (-1) 0 (0) 0
skolodji (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 5 D +6 18 (-6) 16 (+6) 0 (0) 0
Clinton1996 (D-GA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +7 17 (-7) 17 (+7) 0 (0) 0
SecureAmerica (R-NM)MapProfile 11-08 2 D +1 23 (-1) 11 (+1) 0 (0) 0
rpryor03 (D-OH)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +3 21 (-3) 13 (+3) 0 (0) 0
RCRFan3 (R-TX)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 18 D +3 21 (-3) 13 (+3) 0 (0) 0
gkevgas (D-NY)Map 11-08 7 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
ground_x (D-NY)MapProfile 11-08 4 D +6 18 (-6) 16 (+6) 0 (0) 0
Nym90 (D-OR)MapProfile 11-08 25 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2016-11-08 @ 11:42:16
Map 11-08 8 D +4 20 (-4) 14 (+4) 0 (0) 1
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2016-11-07 @ 12:03:06
Map 11-07 7 D +5 19 (-5) 15 (+5) 0 (0) 1
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2016-10-28 @ 06:37:01
Map 10-28 6 D +6 18 (-6) 16 (+6) 0 (0) 1
edwardsna (R-NY)
by slick67 on 2016-09-09 @ 23:30:20
MapProfile 09-09 22 D +2 22 (-2) 12 (+2) 0 (0) 1
dfwlibertylover (D-TX)
by TimTurner on 2016-09-07 @ 01:27:42
MapProfile 09-07 1 Even 24 (0) 10 (0) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2016-09-04 @ 14:52:09
MapProfile 09-04 220 D +6 18 (-6) 16 (+6) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2016-08-31 @ 13:35:34
MapProfile 08-31 219 D +6 18 (-6) 16 (+6) 0 (0) 1
dnul222 (D-MN)
by dnul222 on 2016-08-20 @ 07:15:59
Map 08-20 5 D +5 19 (-5) 15 (+5) 0 (0) 1
IndyRep (R-MT)
by IndyRep on 2016-08-13 @ 21:24:31
MapProfile 07-22 5 D +2 22 (-2) 12 (+2) 0 (0) 1
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by nkpolitics1279 on 2016-08-04 @ 18:33:25
MapProfile 08-04 218 D +6 18 (-6) 16 (+6) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2016 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 35073 times)
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,462
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 09:34:19 AM »
« edited: May 24, 2015, 08:37:26 PM by OC »

Governor Strickland will be great!!!!

New senate Class after Clinton-Castro beats Walker 272-266
Ca Harris; Feinstein Dem.   Harris win 56-44
FL Murphy; Nelson Dem.     Murphy wins 51-49
IL Duckworth; Durbin Dem. Duckworth win 52-47
IN Stutzman; Donnelly Split R's win 60-40
MD Edwards; Cardin Dem.  
NV CCM; Heller Split.   CCM win 51-49
Pa Sestak; Casey Dem Sestak 51-49
WI Feingold; Baldwin Dem feingold 52-48

NH Hassan; Shaheen if she so choses to run

New House

201-234 R controlled
51D-50R Senate

Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2015, 01:28:19 AM »



Republicans: 51
Democrats: 47
Toss-Ups: 2

Democrats would win both Toss-Ups if the election was held today, for a 51-49 Republican Majority


Freshman Senate Class

Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Patrick Murphy (D-FL)
Chris VanHollen (D-MD)

John Fleming (R-LA) (yeah, yeah, he'll have part of Vitter's term, but whatever.)
Marlin Stutzman (R-IN)
(If Rand Paul is the Presidential Nominee:) Andy Barr (R-KY)
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,462
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2015, 03:30:31 AM »

Battle of control; I think the fourth seat will go either through NH or Pa. Which is a plausability. Should Hassan make up her mind.
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,462
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: May 29, 2015, 07:54:56 AM »

I think Pa needs to go back to tossup on Sabato crystal ball.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,778


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2016, 10:35:21 AM »

Stickied as the election approaches.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2016, 11:45:52 PM »

Ratings



Republican: 30
Safe R: 13
Likely R: 3
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6  <-- Overall
Lean D: 0
Likely D: 2
Safe D: 9
Democratic: 36

Prediction



Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

Exact Percentage Predictions
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 08, 2016, 12:21:39 AM »

Final Predictions

Here

Final Ratings



R + Safe R: 45
Likely R: 1
Lean R: 1
Toss-Up: 6
Lean D: 1
Likely D: 1
D + Safe D: 45
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2016, 01:57:38 AM »

How off was I? Ex: D+2 means 2 points more Democratic in margin than actual result.

AL: Even
AK: I was way off, Metcalfe came in 4th!
AZ: D+4
AR: R+1
CA: Even
CO: D+5
CT: R+6
FL: D+4
GA: D+1
HI: R+9
ID: D+5
IL: R+5
IN: D+8
IA: D+12 (ouch)
KS: D+4
KY: R+4
MD: Even
MO: D+2
NV: Even
NH: D+2
NY: R+4
NC: D+3
ND: D+27! (lol)
OH: D+7
OK: D+7
OR: R+2
PA: D+3
SC: D+7
SD: D+18! (what is it with the Dakotas?)
UT: D+4
VT: D+12
WA: R+2
WI: D+7

Overall, better than the presidential race, but still awful.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2016, 08:05:59 AM »

To be fair, the oil boom caused a rapid conservative shift in the Dakotas that wasn't easy to predict and led to huge landslide margins...
Logged
Mike67
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 396
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2016, 10:08:26 PM »

I was really surprised when they GOP kept control of the Senate. I was really expecting the Democrats to gain a 3-4 vote majority.
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,462
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: December 11, 2016, 06:43:37 PM »

When you have an ethically challenged candidate and the economy isn't the best, then this is what happens
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 04, 2017, 09:31:50 AM »

The 2016 prediction scores have (finally) been posted.  We had no perfect state-level predictions, while six members predicted correctly 33 contests.  BushCountry had the overall highest score at 56 with 32 states wins.

Enjoy,
Dave
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2017, 07:29:55 AM »

I knew Johnson was going to win, but I predicted Feingold to avoid people on this forum calling me a HACK!!1!!

Oh well, my prediction was really bad. I'm not going to underestimate the GOP or blindly trust the polls in 2018. Lessons learned.

Oh no, what if people on the internet don't like me
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 1.307 seconds with 11 queries.