Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result

[ElectionsGuy]

Maine goes Democratic with King retirement
MT, MO, ND, IN, and OH all go Republican with defeated Democratic incumbents

4 years from now we can all laugh at ourselves.

[windjammer]

If Clinton wins, your map is really favourable to the democrats EG.

[/]

I think Brown actually has a good chance of keeping his seat in OH.

[Mr.Phips]

If Clinton wins, your map is really favourable to the democrats EG.

How much worse could it get?  WI, FL, and WI go Republican?

[Ebsy]

I think Brown actually has a good chance of keeping his seat in OH.

I agree.

[Free Bird]

I think Brown actually has a good chance of keeping his seat in OH.

I agree.

We all know Kasich has ambitions past governor, but he also won't win the nomination, so we KNOW that the RNC will push him to challenge Brown. Perfect timing, too

[moderatevoter]

You mean the NRSC, not the RNC.

[IceSpear]

ultra conservative heinekempt will survive due to unpopular dalrymple dynasty.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

GOP gains in following states:
ND
MO
IN
MT
+4 overall.

Pink states are where I think the Democrats will win but the GOP could pick up with a retirement/other unforeseen factors. Opportunity for a total GOP pickup of 8.

In conclusion:

[/]

I think Brown actually has a good chance of keeping his seat in OH.

I agree.

We all know Kasich has ambitions past governor, but he also won't win the nomination, so we KNOW that the RNC will push him to challenge Brown. Perfect timing, too

Good point. I wonder who would do better in that race. They're both fairly popular, though 2018 will likely be a good year for the GOP, so Brown could be at risk.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's begin with the map of which seats are vulnerable:

70% - Safe for Now
50% - Possibly Vulnerable (MN/WV/ME require retirements, CA requires the Top-Two Primary producing an R vs. R contest)
30% - Vulnerable
Gray - No Race

I rate Hillary Clinton as a 91% favorite to win her party's nomination and a 60% favorite to win the general, so assuming a Clinton presidency, here's an extremely early prediction:

ND: Cramer defeats Heitkamp 53-46 Republican Gain
MT: Zinke defeats Tester 49-47 Republican Gain
WI: Baldwin defeats Neumann 49-48
MO: Kinder defeats McCaskill 50-44 Republican Gain
IN: Ballard defeats Donnelly 54-43 Republican Gain
OH: DeWine defeats Brown 50-48 Republican Gain
WV: Manchin retires. McKinley defeats Goodwin 59-40 Republican Gain
VA: Kaine defeats Cantor 52-46
PA: Fitzpatrick defeats Casey 50-49 Republican Gain
FL: Nelson defeats Atwater 50-47
MI: Stabenow defeats Rogers 52-46
MN: Klobuchar defeats Seifert 53-42
NM: Heinrich defeats Sanchez 52-47
CA: Feinstein retires. Chiang defeats Swearingen 54-46

NV: Heller defeats Titus 50-46
AZ: Flake defeats Sinema 50-47

Republicans gain ND, MT, MO, IN, OH, WV, PA
Democrats gain nothing

Net: R+7

[smoltchanov]

R+5. ND, MO, IN, MT and WV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI; IL; Pa; OH; NH; 2016; hopefully Dems net 5 senate seats and cover loses with a pickup in NV and ME. It's a stretch, but can be done

Dems pickup NV; Dina Titus; and King or Collins retires to make room for Cain; but lose Donnelly and Heitkamp. As dems minimize loses due to picking up gov races in IL, MD, MA, WI, MI, and NM.

Tester; McCaskill; Carte Goodwin survive.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Let's begin with the map of which seats are vulnerable:

70% - Safe for Now
50% - Possibly Vulnerable (MN/WV/ME require retirements, CA requires the Top-Two Primary producing an R vs. R contest)
30% - Vulnerable
Gray - No Race

I rate Hillary Clinton as a 91% favorite to win her party's nomination and a 60% favorite to win the general, so assuming a Clinton presidency, here's an extremely early prediction:

ND: Cramer defeats Heitkamp 53-46 Republican Gain
MT: Zinke defeats Tester 49-47 Republican Gain
WI: Baldwin defeats Neumann 49-48
MO: Kinder defeats McCaskill 50-44 Republican Gain
IN: Ballard defeats Donnelly 54-43 Republican Gain
OH: DeWine defeats Brown 50-48 Republican Gain
WV: Manchin retires. McKinley defeats Goodwin 59-40 Republican Gain
VA: Kaine defeats Cantor 52-46
PA: Fitzpatrick defeats Casey 50-49 Republican Gain
FL: Nelson defeats Atwater 50-47
MI: Stabenow defeats Rogers 52-46
MN: Klobuchar defeats Seifert 53-42
NM: Heinrich defeats Sanchez 52-47
CA: Feinstein retires. Chiang defeats Swearingen 54-46

NV: Heller defeats Titus 50-46
AZ: Flake defeats Sinema 50-47

Republicans gain ND, MT, MO, IN, OH, WV, PA
Democrats gain nothing

Net: R+7

Cantor? Cantor???

[Penelope]

• Republicans pick up FL, ND, and WV as open seats after retirements, and pick up IN, MO, MT, and VA by defeating incumbent senators.
• Democrats pick up VT after Bernie Sanders retires.
• King sticks it out and wins an easy second term, still caucusing with the Democrats.

R +7

Senate composition looks something like 57 - 42 - 1, depending on how the 2016 elections go.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI; IL; Pa; OH; NH; 2016; hopefully Dems net 5 senate seats and cover loses with a pickup in NV and ME. It's a stretch, but can be done

Dems pickup NV; Dina Titus; and Collins retires to make room for Cain; but lose Donnelly and Heitkamp. As dems minimize loses due to picking up gov races in IL, MD, MA, WI, MI, and NM.

Tester; McCaskil survive.

[Türkisblau]

Let's begin with the map of which seats are vulnerable:

70% - Safe for Now
50% - Possibly Vulnerable (MN/WV/ME require retirements, CA requires the Top-Two Primary producing an R vs. R contest)
30% - Vulnerable
Gray - No Race

I rate Hillary Clinton as a 91% favorite to win her party's nomination and a 60% favorite to win the general, so assuming a Clinton presidency, here's an extremely early prediction:

ND: Cramer defeats Heitkamp 53-46 Republican Gain
MT: Zinke defeats Tester 49-47 Republican Gain
WI: Baldwin defeats Neumann 49-48
MO: Kinder defeats McCaskill 50-44 Republican Gain
IN: Ballard defeats Donnelly 54-43 Republican Gain
OH: DeWine defeats Brown 50-48 Republican Gain
WV: Manchin retires. McKinley defeats Goodwin 59-40 Republican Gain
VA: Kaine defeats Cantor 52-46
PA: Fitzpatrick defeats Casey 50-49 Republican Gain
FL: Nelson defeats Atwater 50-47
MI: Stabenow defeats Rogers 52-46
MN: Klobuchar defeats Seifert 53-42
NM: Heinrich defeats Sanchez 52-47
CA: Feinstein retires. Chiang defeats Swearingen 54-46

NV: Heller defeats Titus 50-46
AZ: Flake defeats Sinema 50-47

Republicans gain ND, MT, MO, IN, OH, WV, PA
Democrats gain nothing

Net: R+7

Cantor? Cantor???

From the VA Republicans I've talked to, he has plans for the future.

[Ebsy]

Pretty sure the Republican base in Virginia despite Cantor with a burning passion.

[TNF]

Arizona: Republican hold
California: Democratic hold
Connecticut: Democratic hold
Delaware: Democratic hold
Florida: Republican gain
Hawaii: Democratic hold
Indiana: Republican gain
Maine: Democratic gain
Maryland: Democratic hold
Massachusetts: Democratic hold
Minnesota: Democratic hold
Mississippi: Republican hold
Missouri: Republican gain
Montana: Republican gain
Nebraska: Republican hold
Nevada: Republican hold
New Jersey: Democratic hold
New Mexico: Democratic hold
New York: Democratic hold
North Dakota: Republican gain
Ohio: Republican gain
Pennsylvania: Democratic hold
Rhode Island: Democratic hold
Tennessee: Republican hold
Texas: Republican hold
Utah: Republican hold
Vermont: Democratic gain (assuming Sanders retires)
Virginia: Democratic hold
Washington: Democratic hold
West Virginia: Democratic hold
Wisconsin: Democratic hold
Wyoming: Republican hold

[Flake]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's begin with the map of which seats are vulnerable:

70% - Safe for Now
50% - Possibly Vulnerable (MN/WV/ME require retirements, CA requires the Top-Two Primary producing an R vs. R contest)
30% - Vulnerable
Gray - No Race

I rate Hillary Clinton as a 91% favorite to win her party's nomination and a 60% favorite to win the general, so assuming a Clinton presidency, here's an extremely early prediction:

ND: Cramer defeats Heitkamp 53-46 Republican Gain
MT: Zinke defeats Tester 49-47 Republican Gain
WI: Baldwin defeats Neumann 49-48
MO: Kinder defeats McCaskill 50-44 Republican Gain
IN: Ballard defeats Donnelly 54-43 Republican Gain
OH: DeWine defeats Brown 50-48 Republican Gain
WV: Manchin retires. McKinley defeats Goodwin 59-40 Republican Gain
VA: Kaine defeats Cantor 52-46
PA: Fitzpatrick defeats Casey 50-49 Republican Gain
FL: Nelson defeats Atwater 50-47
MI: Stabenow defeats Rogers 52-46
MN: Klobuchar defeats Seifert 53-42
NM: Heinrich defeats Sanchez 52-47
CA: Feinstein retires. Chiang defeats Swearingen 54-46

NV: Heller defeats Titus 50-46
AZ: Flake defeats Sinema 50-47

Republicans gain ND, MT, MO, IN, OH, WV, PA
Democrats gain nothing

Net: R+7

Forgot to include Maine:
Independent Hold. King defeats LePage 49-43.

[free my dawg]

GOP picks up MO/WV/ND/MT/IN. On the fence about OH/WI. PA could be in play if Casey doesn't get off his ass, and in a wave/retirement, Maine is in reach.

[Ebsy]

I'm a hopeless Claire McCaskill hack, so it upsets me greatly that like in 2012, you all think she is going to lose.

[Maxwell]

GOP picks up MO/WV/ND/MT/IN. On the fence about OH/WI. PA could be in play if Casey doesn't get off his ass, and in a wave/retirement, Maine is in reach.

This looks correct. I'd say Baldwin is probably going to be a strong incumbent (stronger than Casey), but we'll see.

[smoltchanov]

I'm a hopeless Claire McCaskill hack, so it upsets me greatly that like in 2012, you all think she is going to lose.

We simply don't see second Akin on horizon...