Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result

[Free Bird]

Yup Maine is safe D since King hates his job and the Snowe win in the 2006 massacre was a fluke!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want Tester and McCaskill and Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown to win. They're arent freshman senators like Heitkamp, Donnelly and Carte Goodman, will be. They've been through this before.  I am not completely sold on Dean Heller winning easily over a Dina Titus, either. But, Emily Cain will pick up the King seat, since he will be the first retirement other than Hatch.

[smoltchanov]

I want Tester and McCaskill and Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown to win. They're arent freshman senators like Heitkamp, Donnelly and Carte Goodman, will be. They've been through this before.  I am not completely sold on Dean Heller winning easily over a Dina Titus, either. But, Emily Cain will pick up the King seat, since he will be the first retirement other than Hatch.

Even if he does - nobody can guarantee her win. Both LePage and Poliquin are quite able to beat her, especialy in midterm year. In fact - Poliquin already beat her in 2014. Of course, Maine as a state is more liberal then ME-02, but there are no guaranties of Democratic win there in 2018

[Xing]

In a good Democratic year: Even, they get ND or WV, while losing NV

In a neutral year: R+4 or 5, they get MO, ND, WV, and two of these four: IN, MT, OH, VA

In a good Republican year: R+9, they get IN, MO, MT, ND, OH, VA, WV, and two of these three: FL, PA, WI.

[Maxwell]

I'd replace with North Dakota with Indiana as the for sure loss. Heitkamp is far more talented than Donnelly and North Dakota is far more elastic.

[Xing]

I wouldn't count Donnelly out that quickly. Indiana can be unpredictable, and Donnelly's not a bad campaigner.

[bobloblaw]

Nelson will retire in 2018.

ND is much harder than anyone think for the GOP. Those small states are retail politics states. Everyone gets to meet the candidates.

The GOP will win back the Senate if Hillary if elected in 2016 and pulls in a Dem Senate. My guess is the GOP will have 51-53 seats in 2018

[Free Bird]

I want Tester and McCaskill and Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown to win. They're arent freshman senators like Heitkamp, Donnelly and Carte Goodman, will be. They've been through this before.  I am not completely sold on Dean Heller winning easily over a Dina Titus, either. But, Emily Cain will pick up the King seat, since he will be the first retirement other than Hatch.

Of course you ing do

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To predict Hilary's approvals 2 years out before she is even inaugurated is ridiculous, to have 3 straight midterm disasters in a row is unlikely as well.

One thing is for sure Tester and McCaskill and Brown are not Hagen, Landrieu and Grimes, in deep red states. They are in much more favorable states than the 2014 crowd were in and aren't prone to the Grimes like mistakes either.

[Brewer]

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Unless Walker goes full on nutso and the Republicans are eternally unpopular in WI, I don't see Casey losing while Baldwin prevails. Duffy could legitimately pull the upset under the right conditions. If they want someone from downstate, the new AG Brad Schimel could be a good candidate as well - time will tell, but the GOP has a ton of statewide officials including some young non-incumbents who simply retired. Heck, even Scott Fitzgerald is a household name across the state. If he successfully restores education funding against Walker, he could be seen as a heroic maverick restoring his own name. (I assume he could run for re-election as Majority Leader simultaneously since Ryan ran for VP/House at the same time.) Duffy could take down Baldwin, and there's another 5 or so that could make it close (though some may have to decide if Governor is more worthwhile if Walker retires).

I'm not sure who the Republicans could possibly put up in PA to give Casey a fight. We hold no significant statewide offices. No congressmen should be willing to give up their position for something they have no chance at. Fitzpatrick is supposed to be retiring. He could, but I don't even know what incentive he would have. That leaves Cawley maybe? What mandate would he have over the state's favorite family. It'll probably wind up being some no name businessman or non-leadership state house person.

I won't embarrass myself by making picks but ranking by pick up opportunity:

1. Montana
--
2. Missouri
3. Indiana
4. North Dakota
--
5. Wisconsin
(Arizona - D pick up)
(Nevada - D pick up)
6. Ohio
--
7. Florida  
8. New Jersey
9. New Mexico
10. Virginia
11. West Virginia
12. Pennsylvania

I'll go with R+5 for the time being. I like Jeff Flake a ton, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go down and limit it to 4.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WVA and IN and Mnt are the top three that will fall along with ME.

I didnt say the GOP wont take back senate, but a third wave, in absence of low approvals of 43 percent approvals is difficult to imagine, where Obama's laid.

As long as it stays 47-49 percentage wise for Hilary, typical for a first midterm, Dems may stay competetive.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Background: 2016 sees a Republican elected President, limiting the potential for a R+double digits wave in 2018, but the Republicans hold a 54-46 majority (R pickup in NV, D pickup in WI), putting it within striking distance of 60.

Montana, Indiana, and Missouri become the easy first three (like West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana in 2014).  North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania become Republican targets, while Democrats focus on Arizona and Nevada.  Despite Corker retiring to run for Governor in Tennessee and Feinstein retiring in California, neither become competitive (popular Governor Haslam in TN runs for Senate).  Republicans also try to target Minnesota and Michigan, but fail to gain traction in either race.

Manchin is tested in 2018, but is popular enough to overcome West Virginia's partisan bent.  The Casey political dynasty, likewise, continues in Pennsylvania.  Nelson also survives in Florida.  However, the rest of the races go Republican, as despite already being out of government entirely, the Democrats can't get their base excited for a midterm election (Baldwin only loses very narrowly in Wisconsin, though).

So, I have R+7 for 2018 to give the GOP a 62-38 majority (King switches caucus affiliation, making it R+8).  Should Clinton win in 2016, I would go R+11 (or R+12 with King factored in) in 2018 (add WV, PA, FL, and MI).  Either way, I expect a Republican filibuster-proof majority to come out of 2018.  Unlikely, but not impossible, would be for a Republican veto-proof majority on Clinton, should she win.

[The Other Castro]

I have a feeling this won't be the Republican bloodbath that some are imagining. I don't really have too much faith in McCaskill and I'm unsure about Tester, but Heitkamp might just make it out alive. Outside factors that we cannot predict will play large roles in this midterm, so map vulnerability can only help so far in projections.

Early Prediction:
-GOP picks up Missouri and Indiana
-Joe Manchin wins reelection
-Tester and Heitkamp also win
-If Tim Kaine leaves to be VP, this will be a very competitive race, D hold if Kaine stays
-Democrats fail to pick up Nevada (or any seat)
-Bill Nelson retires, GOP pickup
-Assuming no other retirements in certain states, other Democrats hold their current seats.
-1 or 2 Democrats thought to be likely or safe retire (and seat goes GOP) or lose reelection

GOP absolute range of 1-10 seats gained
GOP probable range of 2-7 seats gained
My super early guess: GOP+4 to regain the Senate

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I have a feeling this won't be the Republican bloodbath that some are imagining. I don't really have too much faith in McCaskill and I'm unsure about Tester, but Heitkamp might just make it out alive. Outside factors that we cannot predict will play large roles in this midterm, so map vulnerability can only help so far in projections.

Early Prediction:
-GOP picks up Missouri and Indiana
-Joe Manchin wins reelection
-Tester and Heitkamp also win
-If Tim Kaine leaves to be VP, this will be a very competitive race, D hold if Kaine stays
-Democrats fail to pick up Nevada (or any seat)
-Bill Nelson retires, GOP pickup
-Assuming no other retirements in certain states, other Democrats hold their current seats.
-1 or 2 Democrats thought to be likely or safe retire (and seat goes GOP) or lose reelection

GOP absolute range of 1-10 seats gained
GOP probable range of 2-7 seats gained
My super early guess: GOP+4 to regain the Senate

I would be quite surprised if the GOP lost the Senate in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling this won't be the Republican bloodbath that some are imagining. I don't really have too much faith in McCaskill and I'm unsure about Tester, but Heitkamp might just make it out alive. Outside factors that we cannot predict will play large roles in this midterm, so map vulnerability can only help so far in projections.

Early Prediction:
-GOP picks up ND or MO and Indiana
-Joe Manchin wins reelection
-Tester wins, too
-If Tim Kaine leaves to be VP, this will be a very competitive race, D hold if Kaine stays
-Democrats pick up Nevada
-Bill Nelson retires, Gwen Graham elected
-Assuming no other retirements in certain states, other Democrats hold their current seats.
-1 or 2 Democrats thought to be likely or safe retire (and seat goes GOP) or lose reelection

GOP absolute range of 1-10 seats gained
GOP probable range of 2-7 seats gained
My super early guess: GOP+2 and ties senate after Dems net 6 seats in 2016

[The Other Castro]

I have a feeling this won't be the Republican bloodbath that some are imagining. I don't really have too much faith in McCaskill and I'm unsure about Tester, but Heitkamp might just make it out alive. Outside factors that we cannot predict will play large roles in this midterm, so map vulnerability can only help so far in projections.

Early Prediction:
-GOP picks up Missouri and Indiana
-Joe Manchin wins reelection
-Tester and Heitkamp also win
-If Tim Kaine leaves to be VP, this will be a very competitive race, D hold if Kaine stays
-Democrats fail to pick up Nevada (or any seat)
-Bill Nelson retires, GOP pickup
-Assuming no other retirements in certain states, other Democrats hold their current seats.
-1 or 2 Democrats thought to be likely or safe retire (and seat goes GOP) or lose reelection

GOP absolute range of 1-10 seats gained
GOP probable range of 2-7 seats gained
My super early guess: GOP+4 to regain the Senate

I would be quite surprised if the GOP lost the Senate in 2016

Not to be OC or anything, but with leaning Dem races in Wisconsin and Illinois and a whole mess of competitive races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and maybe Alaska, Arizona, and Iowa (under the right conditions), I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.

[The Other Castro]

OC please don't change the text within my quote without clearly marking the changes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was responding to Extreme Republican, the winds of change of a GOP senate is blowing the Democratic direction, even more so with the demise of Jeb Bush.

[IceSpear]

I'm not sure who the Republicans could possibly put up in PA to give Casey a fight. We hold no significant statewide offices. No congressmen should be willing to give up their position for something they have no chance at. Fitzpatrick is supposed to be retiring. He could, but I don't even know what incentive he would have. That leaves Cawley maybe? What mandate would he have over the state's favorite family. It'll probably wind up being some no name businessman or non-leadership state house person.

I think the "Casey is untouchable" narrative got destroyed in 2012. Dent, Gerlach, Fitzpatrick, Meehan, etc. would all be decent candidates.

Casey's problem was that he saw his high approval numbers, 20-30 point leads, and weak opponent, then decided to coast rather than run an actual campaign. He was basically the original Mark Warner. The only reason he won so comfortably rather than having a scare was due to presidential year turnout saving his ass. That won't be a lifeline in 2018. If he decides to run an actual campaign (hopefully he's learned), he should survive even against a strong GOP challenge due to his personal popularity and significant appeal to conservative areas of the state. If he tries the same thing again, well...he could meet Warner's fate (or worse.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a gut feeling that the 2018 senate races will follow in similar fashion the 2016 gov elections. Aside for WVA..


Leaning GOP-----> Mnt, MO,and ND

Leaning Dem------> WVA, IND, VT,  NH, DEL and NC

With a pickup opportunity in NV with Dina Titus. Tester, McCaskill and Heitkamp loses in the end.
Donnelly somehow survives.

[Free Bird]

I have a gut feeling that the 2018 senate races will follow in similar fashion the 2016 gov elections. Aside for WVA..


Leaning GOP-----> Mnt, MO, VT and ND

Leaning Dem------> WVA, IND, NH, DEL and NC

With a pickup opportunity in NV with Dina Titus. Tester, McCaskill and Heitkamp loses in the end.
Donnelly somehow survives.

wut

[Flake]

Why do y'all think Nelson's retiring? He's already been gearing up for 2018.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donnelly should be very easy to defeat. If the IN republicans can't defeat him, they don't deserve to exist as a party anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, in a surprise to many Gregg is tied with Pence.  It really depends on 2016.  But, the 2018 senate class is a much better class than 2014,  which was overshadowed by Grimes gaffees. Just like Akin postioned the senate class I members.