I'm not sure who the Republicans could possibly put up in PA to give Casey a fight. We hold no significant statewide offices. No congressmen should be willing to give up their position for something they have no chance at. Fitzpatrick is supposed to be retiring. He could, but I don't even know what incentive he would have. That leaves Cawley maybe? What mandate would he have over the state's favorite family. It'll probably wind up being some no name businessman or non-leadership state house person.
I think the "Casey is untouchable" narrative got destroyed in 2012. Dent, Gerlach, Fitzpatrick, Meehan, etc. would all be decent candidates.
Casey's problem was that he saw his high approval numbers, 20-30 point leads, and weak opponent, then decided to coast rather than run an actual campaign. He was basically the original Mark Warner. The only reason he won so comfortably rather than having a scare was due to presidential year turnout saving his ass. That won't be a lifeline in 2018. If he decides to run an actual campaign (hopefully he's learned), he should survive even against a strong GOP challenge due to his personal popularity and significant appeal to conservative areas of the state. If he tries the same thing again, well...he could meet Warner's fate (or worse.)
