Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result (user search)
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  Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result  (Read 8694 times)
Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« on: April 16, 2015, 10:33:57 PM »

Let's begin with the map of which seats are vulnerable:

70% - Safe for Now
50% - Possibly Vulnerable (MN/WV/ME require retirements, CA requires the Top-Two Primary producing an R vs. R contest)
30% - Vulnerable
Gray - No Race



I rate Hillary Clinton as a 91% favorite to win her party's nomination and a 60% favorite to win the general, so assuming a Clinton presidency, here's an extremely early prediction:

ND: Cramer defeats Heitkamp 53-46 Republican Gain
MT: Zinke defeats Tester 49-47 Republican Gain
WI: Baldwin defeats Neumann 49-48
MO: Kinder defeats McCaskill 50-44 Republican Gain
IN: Ballard defeats Donnelly 54-43 Republican Gain
OH: DeWine defeats Brown 50-48 Republican Gain
WV: Manchin retires. McKinley defeats Goodwin 59-40 Republican Gain
VA: Kaine defeats Cantor 52-46
PA: Fitzpatrick defeats Casey 50-49 Republican Gain
FL: Nelson defeats Atwater 50-47
MI: Stabenow defeats Rogers 52-46
MN: Klobuchar defeats Seifert 53-42
NM: Heinrich defeats Sanchez 52-47
CA: Feinstein retires. Chiang defeats Swearingen 54-46

NV: Heller defeats Titus 50-46
AZ: Flake defeats Sinema 50-47

Republicans gain ND, MT, MO, IN, OH, WV, PA
Democrats gain nothing

Net: R+7

Logged
Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2015, 11:57:18 PM »

Let's begin with the map of which seats are vulnerable:

70% - Safe for Now
50% - Possibly Vulnerable (MN/WV/ME require retirements, CA requires the Top-Two Primary producing an R vs. R contest)
30% - Vulnerable
Gray - No Race



I rate Hillary Clinton as a 91% favorite to win her party's nomination and a 60% favorite to win the general, so assuming a Clinton presidency, here's an extremely early prediction:

ND: Cramer defeats Heitkamp 53-46 Republican Gain
MT: Zinke defeats Tester 49-47 Republican Gain
WI: Baldwin defeats Neumann 49-48
MO: Kinder defeats McCaskill 50-44 Republican Gain
IN: Ballard defeats Donnelly 54-43 Republican Gain
OH: DeWine defeats Brown 50-48 Republican Gain
WV: Manchin retires. McKinley defeats Goodwin 59-40 Republican Gain
VA: Kaine defeats Cantor 52-46
PA: Fitzpatrick defeats Casey 50-49 Republican Gain
FL: Nelson defeats Atwater 50-47
MI: Stabenow defeats Rogers 52-46
MN: Klobuchar defeats Seifert 53-42
NM: Heinrich defeats Sanchez 52-47
CA: Feinstein retires. Chiang defeats Swearingen 54-46

NV: Heller defeats Titus 50-46
AZ: Flake defeats Sinema 50-47

Republicans gain ND, MT, MO, IN, OH, WV, PA
Democrats gain nothing

Net: R+7

Forgot to include Maine:
Independent Hold. King defeats LePage 49-43.
Logged
Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,723
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2015, 06:16:14 PM »

Donnelly should be very easy to defeat. If the IN republicans can't defeat him, they don't deserve to exist as a party anymore.
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