I have a feeling this won't be the Republican bloodbath that some are imagining. I don't really have too much faith in McCaskill and I'm unsure about Tester, but Heitkamp might just make it out alive. Outside factors that we cannot predict will play large roles in this midterm, so map vulnerability can only help so far in projections.
Early Prediction:
-GOP picks up Missouri and Indiana
-Joe Manchin wins reelection
-Tester and Heitkamp also win
-If Tim Kaine leaves to be VP, this will be a very competitive race, D hold if Kaine stays
-Democrats fail to pick up Nevada (or any seat)
-Bill Nelson retires, GOP pickup
-Assuming no other retirements in certain states, other Democrats hold their current seats.
-1 or 2 Democrats thought to be likely or safe retire (and seat goes GOP) or lose reelection
GOP absolute range of 1-10 seats gained
GOP probable range of 2-7 seats gained
My super early guess: GOP+4 to regain the Senate
I would be quite surprised if the GOP lost the Senate in 2016
Not to be OC or anything, but with leaning Dem races in Wisconsin and Illinois and a whole mess of competitive races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and maybe Alaska, Arizona, and Iowa (under the right conditions), I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.
