100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727
Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
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« on: April 19, 2015, 01:52:04 PM » |
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Background: 2016 sees a Republican elected President, limiting the potential for a R+double digits wave in 2018, but the Republicans hold a 54-46 majority (R pickup in NV, D pickup in WI), putting it within striking distance of 60.
Montana, Indiana, and Missouri become the easy first three (like West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana in 2014). North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania become Republican targets, while Democrats focus on Arizona and Nevada. Despite Corker retiring to run for Governor in Tennessee and Feinstein retiring in California, neither become competitive (popular Governor Haslam in TN runs for Senate). Republicans also try to target Minnesota and Michigan, but fail to gain traction in either race.
Manchin is tested in 2018, but is popular enough to overcome West Virginia's partisan bent. The Casey political dynasty, likewise, continues in Pennsylvania. Nelson also survives in Florida. However, the rest of the races go Republican, as despite already being out of government entirely, the Democrats can't get their base excited for a midterm election (Baldwin only loses very narrowly in Wisconsin, though).
So, I have R+7 for 2018 to give the GOP a 62-38 majority (King switches caucus affiliation, making it R+8). Should Clinton win in 2016, I would go R+11 (or R+12 with King factored in) in 2018 (add WV, PA, FL, and MI). Either way, I expect a Republican filibuster-proof majority to come out of 2018. Unlikely, but not impossible, would be for a Republican veto-proof majority on Clinton, should she win.
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