Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI; IL; Pa; OH; NH; 2016; hopefully Dems net 5 senate seats and cover loses with a pickup in NV and ME. It's a stretch, but can be done

Dems pickup NV; Dina Titus; and King or Collins retires to make room for Cain; but lose Donnelly and Heitkamp. As dems minimize loses due to picking up gov races in IL, MD, MA, WI, MI, and NM.

Tester; McCaskill; Carte Goodwin survive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI; IL; Pa; OH; NH; 2016; hopefully Dems net 5 senate seats and cover loses with a pickup in NV and ME. It's a stretch, but can be done

Dems pickup NV; Dina Titus; and Collins retires to make room for Cain; but lose Donnelly and Heitkamp. As dems minimize loses due to picking up gov races in IL, MD, MA, WI, MI, and NM.

Tester; McCaskil survive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want Tester and McCaskill and Bill Nelson and Sherrod Brown to win. They're arent freshman senators like Heitkamp, Donnelly and Carte Goodman, will be. They've been through this before.  I am not completely sold on Dean Heller winning easily over a Dina Titus, either. But, Emily Cain will pick up the King seat, since he will be the first retirement other than Hatch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To predict Hilary's approvals 2 years out before she is even inaugurated is ridiculous, to have 3 straight midterm disasters in a row is unlikely as well.

One thing is for sure Tester and McCaskill and Brown are not Hagen, Landrieu and Grimes, in deep red states. They are in much more favorable states than the 2014 crowd were in and aren't prone to the Grimes like mistakes either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WVA and IN and Mnt are the top three that will fall along with ME.

I didnt say the GOP wont take back senate, but a third wave, in absence of low approvals of 43 percent approvals is difficult to imagine, where Obama's laid.

As long as it stays 47-49 percentage wise for Hilary, typical for a first midterm, Dems may stay competetive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling this won't be the Republican bloodbath that some are imagining. I don't really have too much faith in McCaskill and I'm unsure about Tester, but Heitkamp might just make it out alive. Outside factors that we cannot predict will play large roles in this midterm, so map vulnerability can only help so far in projections.

Early Prediction:
-GOP picks up ND or MO and Indiana
-Joe Manchin wins reelection
-Tester wins, too
-If Tim Kaine leaves to be VP, this will be a very competitive race, D hold if Kaine stays
-Democrats pick up Nevada
-Bill Nelson retires, Gwen Graham elected
-Assuming no other retirements in certain states, other Democrats hold their current seats.
-1 or 2 Democrats thought to be likely or safe retire (and seat goes GOP) or lose reelection

GOP absolute range of 1-10 seats gained
GOP probable range of 2-7 seats gained
My super early guess: GOP+2 and ties senate after Dems net 6 seats in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was responding to Extreme Republican, the winds of change of a GOP senate is blowing the Democratic direction, even more so with the demise of Jeb Bush.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a gut feeling that the 2018 senate races will follow in similar fashion the 2016 gov elections. Aside for WVA..


Leaning GOP-----> Mnt, MO,and ND

Leaning Dem------> WVA, IND, VT,  NH, DEL and NC

With a pickup opportunity in NV with Dina Titus. Tester, McCaskill and Heitkamp loses in the end.
Donnelly somehow survives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, in a surprise to many Gregg is tied with Pence.  It really depends on 2016.  But, the 2018 senate class is a much better class than 2014,  which was overshadowed by Grimes gaffees. Just like Akin postioned the senate class I members.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If its a wave year 5 senate seats goes. But, since Dems will net gain 4-6 seats, in 2016; OH; FL; NH; WI and IL; races are in flux with NV and AZ possibly Dem pickups and IN and ND are the most likely to go GOP; in 2018.

Leaving Tester; Nelson; Brown and McCaskill in good position to win.  As well as Manchin.

In a good Dem year, Heidi Heitkamp loses and replaced by a Dem in NV.