Predict the 2018 Senatorial Result

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Unless Walker goes full on nutso and the Republicans are eternally unpopular in WI, I don't see Casey losing while Baldwin prevails. Duffy could legitimately pull the upset under the right conditions. If they want someone from downstate, the new AG Brad Schimel could be a good candidate as well - time will tell, but the GOP has a ton of statewide officials including some young non-incumbents who simply retired. Heck, even Scott Fitzgerald is a household name across the state. If he successfully restores education funding against Walker, he could be seen as a heroic maverick restoring his own name. (I assume he could run for re-election as Majority Leader simultaneously since Ryan ran for VP/House at the same time.) Duffy could take down Baldwin, and there's another 5 or so that could make it close (though some may have to decide if Governor is more worthwhile if Walker retires).

I'm not sure who the Republicans could possibly put up in PA to give Casey a fight. We hold no significant statewide offices. No congressmen should be willing to give up their position for something they have no chance at. Fitzpatrick is supposed to be retiring. He could, but I don't even know what incentive he would have. That leaves Cawley maybe? What mandate would he have over the state's favorite family. It'll probably wind up being some no name businessman or non-leadership state house person.

I won't embarrass myself by making picks but ranking by pick up opportunity:

1. Montana
--
2. Missouri
3. Indiana
4. North Dakota
--
5. Wisconsin
(Arizona - D pick up)
(Nevada - D pick up)
6. Ohio
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7. Florida  
8. New Jersey
9. New Mexico
10. Virginia
11. West Virginia
12. Pennsylvania

I'll go with R+5 for the time being. I like Jeff Flake a ton, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go down and limit it to 4.