Obama approval in the states

[Devils30]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html?hp=t2_r#.VTFpspTF8rM

Another big mistake, comparing Obama's state approvals in firms like PPP, Quinnipiac with national ones such as Gallup, Rasmussen. You can't get a good picture with different firms.

[King]

It's not an issue unless the economy collapses.

[IceSpear]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

[bobloblaw]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html?hp=t2_r#.VTFpspTF8rM

Another big mistake, comparing Obama's state approvals in firms like PPP, Quinnipiac with national ones such as Gallup, Rasmussen. You can't get a good picture with different firms.

That is why RCP exists

[bobloblaw]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

Marquette is the gold standard for WI, not for national or polling outside WI.

[IceSpear]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

Marquette is the gold standard for WI, not for national or polling outside WI.

Yes, and if it's +2 in Wisconsin which is slightly more Dem than the nation, it's likely somewhere around break even overall, which is the same finding that Selzer (best pollster in the country) came out with.

[bobloblaw]

What is intersting is that only in 2/6 did the party nominee overperform the incumbent's approval rating (1952, 2008). When the party nominee out performs the incumbent's approval rating it is usually due to the fact the incumbent is extremely unpopular.

Two got almost exactly the incumbent's approval rating (1968, 1988), Two did substantially worse (1960, 2000).

I cant see Hillary doing substantially worse. But I dont see her over performing either like in 1952 or 2008. In the case of 1968 and 1988, the party nominee did about 1 point better than the incumbent's popularity.

It is only 6 data points but interesting.

[bobloblaw]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

Marquette is the gold standard for WI, not for national or polling outside WI.

Yes, and if it's +2 in Wisconsin which is slightly more Dem than the nation, it's likely somewhere around break even overall, which is the same finding that Selzer (best pollster in the country) came out with.

Marquette isnt the gold standard for anything outside WI. What youre saying is specious reasoning. That MU is the gold standard in WI and WI is D+2, therefore MU is the national gold standard.

[IceSpear]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

Marquette is the gold standard for WI, not for national or polling outside WI.

Yes, and if it's +2 in Wisconsin which is slightly more Dem than the nation, it's likely somewhere around break even overall, which is the same finding that Selzer (best pollster in the country) came out with.

Marquette isnt the gold standard for anything outside WI. What youre saying is specious reasoning. That MU is the gold standard in WI and WI is D+2, therefore MU is the national gold standard.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that the best pollster in the country just showed him at 47-46.

[bobloblaw]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

Marquette is the gold standard for WI, not for national or polling outside WI.

Yes, and if it's +2 in Wisconsin which is slightly more Dem than the nation, it's likely somewhere around break even overall, which is the same finding that Selzer (best pollster in the country) came out with.

Marquette isnt the gold standard for anything outside WI. What youre saying is specious reasoning. That MU is the gold standard in WI and WI is D+2, therefore MU is the national gold standard.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that the best pollster in the country just showed him at 47-46.

Nobody thinks they are the best pollster in the country. They are the best in WI because they know the intricacies of the WI electorate. Just like the DM Register in IA.

I certainly hope you dont work in any postion requiring any analytical or statistical thought. Your leaps in logic in making a conclusion are pretty amazing.

[King]

Obama's approval rating April 17, 2011 on Gallup was 43% approve, 48% disapprove. Today it's 47% approve, 50% disapprove. The administration is actually better off heading into 2016 than it was in the victorious 2012 campaign.

Barring an economic collapse, Obama isn't likely to hide like Bush did. He'll be campaigning for Hillary and when Obama campaigns his numbers go up. They even went up after the midterm because he started campaigning again and signing executive orders.

It's quite likely he'll be 50%+ on the Election Day exit poll.

[bobloblaw]

Obama's approval rating April 17, 2011 on Gallup was 43% approve, 48% disapprove. Today it's 47% approve, 50% disapprove. The administration is actually better off heading into 2016 than it was in the victorious 2012 campaign.

Barring an economic collapse, Obama isn't likely to hide like Bush did. He'll be campaigning for Hillary and when Obama campaigns his numbers go up. They even went up after the midterm because he started campaigning again and signing executive orders.

It's quite likely he'll be 50%+ on the Election Day exit poll.

Look at RCP. I dont care about one single poll.

[bobloblaw]

Obama's approval rating April 17, 2011 on Gallup was 43% approve, 48% disapprove. Today it's 47% approve, 50% disapprove. The administration is actually better off heading into 2016 than it was in the victorious 2012 campaign.

Barring an economic collapse, Obama isn't likely to hide like Bush did. He'll be campaigning for Hillary and when Obama campaigns his numbers go up. They even went up after the midterm because he started campaigning again and signing executive orders.

It's quite likely he'll be 50%+ on the Election Day exit poll.

What do you attribute Obama's improvement to? And is the future a straight line projection of the present. An approval rating of 45-48% is pretty poor in an environment of no wars, 5% unemployment and $2.25 gasoline.

[King]

Obama's approval rating April 17, 2011 on Gallup was 43% approve, 48% disapprove. Today it's 47% approve, 50% disapprove. The administration is actually better off heading into 2016 than it was in the victorious 2012 campaign.

Barring an economic collapse, Obama isn't likely to hide like Bush did. He'll be campaigning for Hillary and when Obama campaigns his numbers go up. They even went up after the midterm because he started campaigning again and signing executive orders.

It's quite likely he'll be 50%+ on the Election Day exit poll.

Look at RCP. I dont care about one single poll.

Obama's RCP on April 20, 2011 was 45.3-50.0. Today, it's 45.1-50.1.

[King]

What do you attribute Obama's improvement to? And is the future a straight line projection of the present. An approval rating of 45-48% is pretty poor in an environment of no wars, 5% unemployment and $2.25 gasoline.

Simple. He launched his re-election campaign in April 2011. Prior to April, he was just taking punches without punching back. The narrative was 100% Republican dominated, but then Obama was no longer a static punching bag.

Hillary launched April 2015. She is no longer a static punching bag. The parallels are uncanny.

[IceSpear]

The gold standard of polls just put Obama's approval nationally at 47-46. Marquette, the Wisconsin gold standard, put him at 49-47.

SO UNPOPLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!111!!!!!!!!!!

Marquette is the gold standard for WI, not for national or polling outside WI.

Yes, and if it's +2 in Wisconsin which is slightly more Dem than the nation, it's likely somewhere around break even overall, which is the same finding that Selzer (best pollster in the country) came out with.

Marquette isnt the gold standard for anything outside WI. What youre saying is specious reasoning. That MU is the gold standard in WI and WI is D+2, therefore MU is the national gold standard.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that the best pollster in the country just showed him at 47-46.

Nobody thinks they are the best pollster in the country. They are the best in WI because they know the intricacies of the WI electorate. Just like the DM Register in IA.

Are you stupid? That's a rhetorical question. I'm not referring to Marquette, I'm referring to the Selzer poll that just came out yesterday. Please learn reading comprehension.

[Devils30]

If he's 49/47 in Wisconsin it's very consistent with his 47/50 nationally.

[porky88]

If he's 49/47 in Wisconsin it's very consistent with his 47/50 nationally.

Yep, and I don't see what’s so controversial here. On average, RCP has President Obama at around 44-46 for like the last month or so. Sitting at 49-47 in Wisconsin seems about right.

Frankly, his approval rating has been trending upward since the mid terms.

The Democrats are in a far better position to win in 2016 than the Republicans were going into 2008. As it stands, the playbook the Dems used against John McCain isn’t going to work unless things drastically change. That could happen. Will they change for the better or worse? That's the biggest question mark going into 2016.

[bobloblaw]

What do you attribute Obama's improvement to? And is the future a straight line projection of the present. An approval rating of 45-48% is pretty poor in an environment of no wars, 5% unemployment and $2.25 gasoline.

Simple. He launched his re-election campaign in April 2011. Prior to April, he was just taking punches without punching back. The narrative was 100% Republican dominated, but then Obama was no longer a static punching bag.

Hillary launched April 2015. She is no longer a static punching bag. The parallels are uncanny.

No I mean his approval improvement since Nov 2014. Youre the one claiming her will be at over 50% by Nov 2016. I attribute it mostly to the fall in gas prices.

[King]

What do you attribute Obama's improvement to? And is the future a straight line projection of the present. An approval rating of 45-48% is pretty poor in an environment of no wars, 5% unemployment and $2.25 gasoline.

Simple. He launched his re-election campaign in April 2011. Prior to April, he was just taking punches without punching back. The narrative was 100% Republican dominated, but then Obama was no longer a static punching bag.

Hillary launched April 2015. She is no longer a static punching bag. The parallels are uncanny.

No I mean his approval improvement since Nov 2014. Youre the one claiming her will be at over 50% by Nov 2016. I attribute it mostly to the fall in gas prices.

Gas prices had been falling since September and have been increasing since March so that's just wrong. There's no correlation.

The real difference is that Obama was hiding because Democrats running didn't want to be seen with him, and then the day after the loss immediately emerged to sign a bunch of popular executive orders and give a bunch of popular defiant statements that reignited his base, which didn't turn out in the midterms.