Predict the 2018 Gubernatorial Results

[Free Bird]

Assuming a President Hillary. Since Bill!Walker is basically a Republican, I kept Alaska as such, and also to make green tossups.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rauner, Walker (or Kleefisch if Walker becomes president) and Hogan lose re-election
Dems caputure open seats in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Michigan
Republicans capture open seats in New Hampshire and Colorado, and Bill Walker switches to Republican.

[Free Bird]

Rauner, Walker (or Kleefisch if Walker becomes president) and Hogan lose re-election
Dems caputure open seats in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Michigan
Republicans capture open seats in New Hampshire and Colorado, and Bill Walker switches to Republican.

Fair ideas, especially if this has a President Walker. But I've talked to Maine GOPers. It is an open secret that Collins wants to finally be governor, and isn't Branstad pampering Reynolds to be his successor? With his backing she should win.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Being cautious:



Alaska may be a tossup if it's between their current INDY governor and a GOP candidate.  This map assumes he doesn't run again. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Green indicates competitive races.

I'm not saying anything on NH/VT/OR 2018 gubernatorial elections until they hold their 2016 gubernatorial elections, so colored them in Yellow.

[Vega]

Rauner, Walker (or Kleefisch if Walker becomes president) and Hogan lose re-election
Dems caputure open seats in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Michigan
Republicans capture open seats in New Hampshire and Colorado, and Bill Walker switches to Republican.

This strikes me as really accurate. But I can't help but feel that in order for Mallott made Walker commit to serving out his terms as a Independent. Maybe not.

[MATTROSE94]

My best guess for the 2018 Gubernatorial elections is that the Democrats will pick up Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, Maine and New Mexico, whereas I feel that the Republicans will pick up Vermont, Connecticut, Colorado and Alaska.

[Flake]

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats are going to have to do well in these races if they want a more level playing field for the US House and state legislatures.

[Free Bird]

Why is everyone assuming Maine will go Democrat? It had nigh-presidential turnout in 2014, and LePage still won, and since we are all convinced that Hillary will win a 50-state landslide, I would say 2018 may be another good GOP year.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is everyone assuming Maine will go Democrat? It had nigh-presidential turnout in 2014, and LePage still won, and since we are all convinced that Hillary will win a 50-state landslide, I would say 2018 may be another good GOP year.

Well it certainly depends who wins the Presidency, and if Collins runs. But is it not reasonable to suggest that a left leaning state like Maine would elect a Democratic governor after two terms of LePage?

[Ebsy]

If Kris Kobach secures the nomination in Kansas, could we see a repeat of 2014 when the governorship is thrown into play? Seeing how the last 6 years have gone for Republicans in the state, Brownback might be at Bush levels of popularity and the state's budget will be so far in the red that it will have to drastically reduce services.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Kris Kobach secures the nomination in Kansas, could we see a repeat of 2014 when the governorship is thrown into play? Seeing how the last 6 years have gone for Republicans in the state, Brownback might be at Bush levels of popularity and the state's budget will be so far in the red that it will have to drastically reduce services.

Nope. Despite polls showing a closer race, Kobach won reelection 59-41 last year, while Roberts won by only 12 and Brownback by only 4. Kobach looks like he could win the governorship without any problem at all.

[Ebsy]

God help the people of Kansas with Kris Kobach as their governor. Hopefully Missouri will be able to capitalize on their demise.

[/]

My best guess for the 2018 Gubernatorial elections is that the Democrats will pick up Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, Maine and New Mexico, whereas I feel that the Republicans will pick up Vermont, Connecticut, Colorado and Alaska.

Because Vermont and Connecticut are way more likely to vote in a Republican than Georgia and Florida.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL/MD/ME should go Democratic

OH/FL will elect either Gwen Graham or Tim Ryan

WI/MI/IA and CO/NM/NV/AK can go either way.

Gwen Graham runs for Gov

[Mr. Illini]

I don't know how anyone could put Massachusetts at solid R. Obviously Baker could do very well and be re-elected, but here more than 3 years out from the election and a state as liberal as Massachusetts, there is a certainty of uncertainty about how it will go in 2018.

[Vega]

I don't know how anyone could put Massachusetts at solid R. Obviously Baker could do very well and be re-elected, but here more than 3 years out from the election and a state as liberal as Massachusetts, there is a certainty of uncertainty about how it will go in 2018.

He also might not run - as Republican governors there tend not to.

[Skill and Chance]

I feel Iowa is quite likely to stay Republican either way.  For additional changes, flip Florida and three of CO/MN/WI/MI/PA/NH/ME with a Democratic president.  Flip one of GA/AZ/OH with a Republican president.

[Mr.Phips]

I feel Iowa is quite likely to stay Republican either way.  For additional changes, flip Florida and three of CO/MN/WI/MI/PA/NH/ME with a Democratic president.  Flip one of GA/AZ/OH with a Republican president.

Dems really can't afford to be without a seat at the table yet again in the WI, MI, PA, and OH 2021 redistricting.  Winning the governorships there in 2018 are a must if Dems want to start cracking the GOP gerrymandering of the House and state legislatures.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are most likely to win 5 govs.

IL Bill Daley or Lisa Madigan
ME Emily Cain
MD some Dem def Hogan

OH or FL with Tim Ryan or Gwen Graham

CO or NM or NV for 5 seat net gain

MI or WI as AK flips GOP.

[Maxwell]

I don't know how anyone could put Massachusetts at solid R. Obviously Baker could do very well and be re-elected, but here more than 3 years out from the election and a state as liberal as Massachusetts, there is a certainty of uncertainty about how it will go in 2018.

He also might not run - as Republican governors there tend not to.

Yeah, that was just Romney.

[Vega]

I don't know how anyone could put Massachusetts at solid R. Obviously Baker could do very well and be re-elected, but here more than 3 years out from the election and a state as liberal as Massachusetts, there is a certainty of uncertainty about how it will go in 2018.

He also might not run - as Republican governors there tend not to.

Yeah, that was just Romney.

And Swift, Cellucci - Weld quit during his second term. Obviously I'm just joking, but it's an odd pattern.

[Maxwell]

This is definitely far away - I could see some oddball places with Democrat Governors. I will say some places that I think are more definitive to lose Governorships -

Democrats Pick-Up: Maine (Maybe Poliquin will run after a shock win in 2016, otherwise I don't see it after two terms of LePage), Maryland (Hogan's strong, but so is Maryland Democratic Party), Michigan (very hormonal, switches easily), New Mexico (Another switchy state), Wisconsin (We'll see, but Walker's approvals seem to suggest a change), Illinois (Love Rauner, probably not winning again)
Republicans Pick-Up: Nothing

It's way too early, obviously (since in Governorships partisanship seems less emphasized), and I think most of these states could go either way since there will be a lot of open seats. No doubt, 2018 will be fun.