Potential Candidates in 2020
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Mister Mets
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« on: April 18, 2015, 09:34:58 PM »

There are some people who aren't going for President in this cycle, but may make an effort in the next go-around. Usually when we have discussions about potential candidates, it's about people who haven't been elected to higher office yet (or may just have been elected.) But it could also be that the current environment isn't the right fit for an individual. So I thought it'd be interesting to highlight the people who might run who take on an incumbent President.

These aren't necessarily serious candidates. Just potential candidates.

On the Republican Side..
JC Watts- Herman Cain and Ben Carson showed that there's an interest in the Republicans party for conservative middle aged African Americans. Watts differs in that he has served in elected office, and has been in the house leadership as the former House Republican Conference Chair. He has recently gotten involved in presidential politics by endorsing Rand Paul's bid.

On the Democratic Side...
Bill De Blasio- Gets a lot of free media as Mayor of New York City. Considered one of the most prominent progressive politicians in the country. There's an appetite on the left for an Elizabeth Warren type candidate, but she's not interested in running for President, and no one else is really peeking into that opening. There also don't seem to be a lot of alternatives.

Who are you guys keeping an eye on?
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2015, 11:11:17 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2015, 11:18:33 PM by Tj Hare »

There was a threat about this a few months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188084.0

But hey, it's a topic I still love to discuss so I wont shut it down.

Democrats in 2020:
Julian Castro
Joaquin Castro
Bill De Blasio
Kristen Gilbrand
Martin Heinrich
Martin O'Malley (Assuming he doesn't get the 16' nomination)
Corey Booker
Andrew Cuomo
Kamala Harris

Republicans in 2020:
Tom Cotton
Marco Rubio (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Rand Paul (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Scott Walker (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Ted Cruz (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Kelly Ayotte
Paul Ryan
Brian Sandoval
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2015, 11:52:08 PM »

All depends on who wins 2016.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2015, 05:36:42 PM »

Hillary???
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H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2015, 09:09:27 PM »

Tom Cotton, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2015, 09:34:53 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 09:37:02 AM by Bull Moose Base »

There was a threat about this a few months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188084.0

Republicans in 2020:
Tom Cotton
Marco Rubio (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Rand Paul (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Scott Walker (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Ted Cruz (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')

Kelly Ayotte
Paul Ryan
Brian Sandoval


Going back 60 years, there have been 5 Republican non-incumbents who lost the general election: Nixon 60, Goldwater 64, Dole 96, McCain 08, Romney 12. Of those, Goldwater lost by over 20 points and 400 electoral votes. Dole and McCain, had they won next time around, would have turned 80 in their first term. So none were viable for the next cycle.

Nixon though was elected president next time he ran and Romney was leading most 2016 GOP polls and was a viable candidate. If Scott Walker (or Marco Rubio) is the 2016 nominee, they're well-positioned to be a or the frontrunner again in 2020, even with a general election loss up to 5 points. Cruz or Paul would be less likely because party leaders and FOX would gleefully pile on blaming the nominee of blowing it in a way they wouldn't with Walker (or Rubio). (If Bush loses the general election by the much, making it 3 moderate Republican losers in a row, the conservative wing is well-poisitioned for 2020.)

In other words, Scott Walker is in a great position to be the GOP's 2020 nominee if he is a strong 2016 runner-up but even if he is nominated and loses to Hillary. Unless he turns in a humiliating performance which feels like a distinct possibility.
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2015, 12:25:31 PM »

There was a threat about this a few months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188084.0

Republicans in 2020:
Tom Cotton
Marco Rubio (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Rand Paul (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Scott Walker (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')
Ted Cruz (Assuming he doesn't get the nomination in 16')

Kelly Ayotte
Paul Ryan
Brian Sandoval


Going back 60 years, there have been 5 Republican non-incumbents who lost the general election: Nixon 60, Goldwater 64, Dole 96, McCain 08, Romney 12. Of those, Goldwater lost by over 20 points and 400 electoral votes. Dole and McCain, had they won next time around, would have turned 80 in their first term. So none were viable for the next cycle.

Nixon though was elected president next time he ran and Romney was leading most 2016 GOP polls and was a viable candidate. If Scott Walker (or Marco Rubio) is the 2016 nominee, they're well-positioned to be a or the frontrunner again in 2020, even with a general election loss up to 5 points. Cruz or Paul would be less likely because party leaders and FOX would gleefully pile on blaming the nominee of blowing it in a way they wouldn't with Walker (or Rubio). (If Bush loses the general election by the much, making it 3 moderate Republican losers in a row, the conservative wing is well-poisitioned for 2020.)

In other words, Scott Walker is in a great position to be the GOP's 2020 nominee if he is a strong 2016 runner-up but even if he is nominated and loses to Hillary. Unless he turns in a humiliating performance which feels like a distinct possibility.

I agree, I was going to add that in my parentheses but I was aiming to keep everything at one line. Rubio & Walker both would have a shot in 2020 or 2024 even if they got the nomination in 2016 and lost the general election. If the democratic president's approval ratings are low I could see a chance where Walker or Rubio come back in 2020 if 2016 was close. Rubio being so young, he probably has even more time than that (Walker isn't that much older though.) The reason I didn't include Jeb Bush on my list at all is because I believe if he runs this time, even if he doesn't win the nomination, this is his one shot in my opinion.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2015, 02:05:59 PM »

Tom Cotton, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez

I hope to God you're right about the second two.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2015, 11:26:18 AM »

Excluding those running or potentially running this time:

Republicans
1.Lisa Murkowski, Alaska, U.S Senator
2.Tom Cotton, Arkansas, U.S Senator
3.Cory Gardner, Colorado, U.S Senator
4.Rick Scott, Florida, Governor
5.Bruce Rauner, Illinois, Governor
6.Joni Ernst, Iowa, U.S Senator
7.Steve Daines, Montana, U.S Senator
8.Ben Sasse, Nebraska, U.S Senator
9.Brian Sandoval, Nevada, Governor
10.Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire, U.S Senator
11.Susana Martinez, New Mexico, Governor
12.Pat McCrory, North Carolina, Governor
13.Rob Portman, Ohio, U.S Senator
14.Mary Fallin, Oklahoma, Governor
15.Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania, U.S Senator
16.Tim Scott, South Carolina, U.S Senator
17.Nikki Haley, South Carolina, Governor
18.Bob Corker, Tennessee, U.S Senator
19.Bill Haslam, Tennessee, Governor
20.Ron Johnson, Wisconsin, U.S Senator
21.Paul Ryan, Wisconsin, U.S Representative

Democrats
1.Michael Bennet, Colorado, U.S Senator
2.Dan Malloy, Connecticut, Governor
3.Jack Markel, Delaware, Governor
4.Brian Schatz, Hawaii, U.S Senator
5.Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts, U.S Senator
6.Deval Patrick, Massachusetts, Former Governor
7.Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota, U.S Senator
8.Gary Peters, Michigan, U.S Senator
9.Steve Bullock, Montana, Governor
10.Brian Schweitzer, Montana, Former Governor
11.Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire, Governor
John Lynch, New Hampshire, Former Governor, (Probably won't run for office again.)
12.Cory Booker, New Jersey, U.S Senator
13.Martin Heinrich, New Mexico, U.S Seanator
14.Andrew Cuomo, New York, Governor
15.Kirsten Gillibrand, New York, U.S Senator
16.Anthony Foxx, North Carolina, U.S Transportation Secretary, former Charlotte Mayor
17.Gina Raimondo, Rhode Island, Governor
18.Julian Castro, Texas, U.S Housing and Urban Development Secretary, former San Antonio Mayor
19.Mark Warner/Tim Kaine, Virginia, U.S Senator
20.Jay Inslee, Washington, Governor
21.Maria Cantwell, Washington, U.S Senator
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2015, 06:59:39 PM »

I see Clinton VS Cotton for 2020.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2015, 02:19:37 PM »

Gillibrand
Warren
Castro
Booker

Sandoval
Ryan
Kasich
Snyder
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2015, 03:47:58 PM »

Paul Ryan is a major possibility assuming Hillary wins in 2016.

He'll have several years as Chairman of the House Ways and Means committee under his belt. He'd be expected to give it up after 2020 anyway and has hinted that he doesn't plan to stay in Congress after that.

The contrast isn't bad. He'll be twenty years younger than Hillary, but still have a credible resume with over a decade as intellectual leader of the Republican party, and a previous position on a national ticket.

If he runs for President and wins, that's one way to end a political career.

If he runs for President and loses, there are plenty of places he can get rich in the private sector.
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ChainsawJedis
Tj Hare
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« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2015, 06:38:17 PM »

Paul Ryan is a major possibility assuming Hillary wins in 2016.

He'll have several years as Chairman of the House Ways and Means committee under his belt. He'd be expected to give it up after 2020 anyway and has hinted that he doesn't plan to stay in Congress after that.

The contrast isn't bad. He'll be twenty years younger than Hillary, but still have a credible resume with over a decade as intellectual leader of the Republican party, and a previous position on a national ticket.

If he runs for President and wins, that's one way to end a political career.

If he runs for President and loses, there are plenty of places he can get rich in the private sector.

I think it was a good decision overall on his part for holding off on running this time around. If he really is done in the house then 2020 may be his time.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2015, 01:10:00 AM »

The contrast isn't bad. He'll be twenty years younger than Hillary, but still have a credible resume with over a decade as intellectual leader of the Republican party, and a previous position on a national ticket.

Kind of sad that the intellectual leader of the Republican Party is a pathological liar who stated that even he would have voted against his own budget proposal.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2015, 10:52:12 PM »

The contrast isn't bad. He'll be twenty years younger than Hillary, but still have a credible resume with over a decade as intellectual leader of the Republican party, and a previous position on a national ticket.

Kind of sad that the intellectual leader of the Republican Party is a pathological liar who stated that even he would have voted against his own budget proposal.

Hillary is a Dem and she is a woman.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2015, 11:48:16 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2015, 11:54:23 PM by Adam T »

The contrast isn't bad. He'll be twenty years younger than Hillary, but still have a credible resume with over a decade as intellectual leader of the Republican party, and a previous position on a national ticket.

Kind of sad that the intellectual leader of the Republican Party is a pathological liar who stated that even he would have voted against his own budget proposal.

Hillary is a Dem and she is a woman.

Paul Ryan, the pathological liar,  is a Rep and he is a man. Are you too stupidly to follow this thread?
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2015, 04:16:14 PM »

Cotton
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2017, 04:53:03 PM »

sanders?
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