Uncharted Waters- The road to the new politics of fracture

[Simfan34]

This is revised version of this scenario: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161103.0

I am writing this to provide background to another match-up, revised to account for present events.

Let's begin with the 2016 elections. Despite a crowded GOP field, the slog of the actual primary campaign is short and, following Super Tuesday, Scott Walker emerged as the clear Republican front-runner, and wins the nomination. At the convention, he declares his choice of Senator Marco Rubio as his running mate.

Hillary wins without much in the way of contest, facing a lacklustre field of Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley, and Lincoln Chafee as her opponents. At the Democratic convention, she declares that she has chosen HUD Secretary Julian Castro as her running mate.

Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)

HUD Sec. Julian Castro (TX)

Gov. Scott Walker (WI)

Sen. Marco Rubio (FL)

Walker runs a "common man" campaign against the "liberal establishment insider" Clinton, which in the summer results in polls showing him performing rather well, but into the fall his bid finds itself increasingly buffeted by labor and progressive hostility against his his record.

This mix of old-style labor and new progressive sensibilities on inequality and the working class proves difficult to counter, and the "common man" rhetoric employed by Walker appears increasingly hollow. The debates are for the most part deemed draws, but they do little to reverse this narrative, as his candidacy has galvanized a powerful coalition of progressives and organized labor in opposition, boosting Democratic support amongst whites while keeping a strong lock on minority votes. The result is a decisive victory for Hillary and Castro on election day.

Hillary Clinton/ Julian Castro (Dem.) Scott Walker/ Marco Rubio (Rep.)

53.3% 44.6%

379 EV 159 EV

The presidential election unsurprisingly has an effect on down-ballot races. The Democrats regain the Senate, and despite not taking control of the House, they again win a more overall votes and make considerable gains. These are detailed in the next post(s).

[Simfan34]

Looking at the Senate-

In Arizona, despite calls to retire and Hillary's shock victory of the state, John McCain defeats Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton to win re-election to another term, which he pledges will be his last.

John McCain (Rep.) Greg Stanton (Dem.)

56.2% 39.6%

In California, Attorney General Kamala Harris easily defeats former Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a moderate former Silicon Valley executive, in the race to succeed Barbara Boxer.

Kamala Harris (Dem.) Steve Poizner (Rep.)

62.1% 37.9%

In Colorado, incumbent Michael Bennet wins by a wider than expected margin against his Republican opponent former Interior Secretary Gale Norton.

Michael Bennet (Dem.) Gale Norton (Rep.)

50.3% 47.5%

In Florida, State CFO Jeff Atwater, loses to the Democratic candidate, Rep. Patrick Murphy in a fierce fight to win to the seat vacated by Rubio.

Patrick Murphy (Dem.) Jeff Atwater (Rep.)

49.2% 46.7%

Mark Kirk manages to hold on to his seat by the narrowest of margins in Illinois, defeating Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth by less than 10,000 votes.

Mark S. Kirk (Rep.) Tammy Duckworth (Dem.)

48.1% 47.9%

In the race to succeed the retiring Dan Coats in Indiana, former Democratic Senator Evan Bayh comes out of retirement to defeat Rep. Susan Brooks in what had been a favoured seat for Republicans.

Evan Bayh (Dem.) Susan Brooks (Rep.)

56.2% 42.6%

Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley had declared his intention to run for another term, but following a serious health scare in late 2015, announced that he would- to his dismay- retire, throwing what had been a safe GOP hold to a pure toss up. The Republicans scramble to find a replacement and settle on Grassley's grandson, State Rep. Pat Grassley, touting his youth as potential to build seniority in the Senate and over time amass the sort of clout his grandfather was able to. The Democrats nominate former Governor and Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, who, slamming Grassley's inexperience, is able to win the race.

Tom Vilsack (Dem.) Pat Grassley (Rep.)

53.2% 44.6%

In 2015, Louisiana Senator David Vitter and Governor Bobby Jindal managed to bury the hatchet on their feud, with Jindal deciding to not run for President and endorsing Vitter's bid for the governorship, even using his SuperPAC's resources to help Vitter's bid. To the surprise of most political observers, Vitter then appoints Jindal to the Senate after taking office, timed so Jindal would not have to face a special election. Jindal moves to support many of Vitter's initiatives in the Senate, boosting his reputation. Thus in 2016, incumbent Senator Bobby Jindal, while having to face a runoff following the jungle primary, goes on to decisively defeat Democratic State Senator Karen Carter Peterson to win a full term.

Bobby Jindal (Rep.) Karen C. Peterson (Dem.)

62.2% 37.8%

Maryland's Barbara Mikulski retires, leaving her seat open. The Democratic primary is highly contested- almost certainly more so than the general election would be- with Rep. Donna Edwards, who is able to carve out a niche as a staunch progressive, emerging as the Democratic nominee. The Republicans nominate Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman, who, despite being fairly moderate, is easily defeated by Edwards.

Donna Edwards (Dem.) Allan H. Kittleman (Rep.)

63.5% 35.7%

In Missouri, the Democratic candidate, Secretary of State Jason Kander challenges incumbent Republican Roy Blunt, painting him as an extremist conservative in the mold of Todd Akin. Despite the fact Blunt is actually generally considered an establishment figure, the charges stick, and Kander is able to tap into "labor-progressive" networks to win the support of both African Americans and many working class whites to win a surprise victory against the favored incumbent alongside Hillary.

Jason Kander (Dem.) Roy Blunt (Rep.)

48.2% 47.1%

Harry Reid's retirement from the Senate left his Nevada seat open for what was quickly recognized as a toss-up race. Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto easily won the Democratic primary, while the Republicans nominated Governor Brian Sandoval, who had been reluctant to run but announced his candidacy after essentially being ordered to by both the State and National GOP. Despite this reluctance, Sandoval fought vigorously in what emerged to be one of the most contentious races in the country, and won comfortably.

Brian Sandoval (Rep.) Catherine Cortez Masto (Dem.)

51.1% 42.8%

In North Carolina it was a similar story as in Missouri, with a surprise victory for State Treasurer Janet Cowell, against incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr. Cowell, riding on the wave of support for Hillary, narrowly came out on top.

Janet Cowell (Dem.) Richard Burr (Rep.)

49.9% 48.7%

Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey ran for re-election, facing former Rep. Joe Sestak in a re-match of the 2010 race. This time, however, with the advantage of a concurrent presidential race, Sestak was able to defeat Toomey and pick up another seat for the Democrats.

Joe Sestak (Dem.) Pat Toomey (Rep.)

52.3% 47.7%

Finally, in Wisconsin, there was yet another rematch of a 2010 race, with Republican Senator Ron Johnson facing former Senator Russ Feingold. As in Pennsylvania, the Democrat came out on top this time around, here by a wide margin.

Russ Feingold (Dem.) Ron Johnson (Rep.)

56.0% 43.4%

All other incumbents in the remaining races are re-elected.

[Ebsy]

I know this is your timeline, but the notion of Bobby Jindal being elected Senator is hysterical.

[Simfan34]

Following the 2016 elections, the 115th United States Congress took office. At the start of the session, the composition of the Senate was as follows:

Party Democratic Party   Ind. (Dem caucus) Republican Party

Seats 51 (53)   2    — 47

Change (+7) ( - ) (-7)

President of the Senate: Julian Castro (Dem-TX)
President Pro Tempore: Patrick Leahy (Dem-VT)

Senate Majority Leader: Chuck Schumer (Dem-NY)
Assistant Majority Leader: Dick Durbin (Dem-IL)
Caucus and Policy Committee Chair: Patty Murray (Dem-WA)

Senate Minority Leader: John Thune (Rep-SD)
Assistant Minority Leader: John Barrasso (Rep-WY)
Conference Chairman: Roger Wicker (Rep-MI)

The composition of the House of Representatives, likewise, was as follows:

Party Republican Party Democratic Party

Seats 223 212

Change (-24) (+24)

Speaker of the House: Kevin McCarthy (Rep-CA)

House Majority Leader: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Rep-WA)
Majority Whip: Patrick McHenry (Rep-NC)
Conference Chair: Lynn Jenkins (Rep-KS)

House Minority Leader: Xavier Becerra (Dem-CA)
Assistant Minority Leader: Elijah Cummings (Dem-MD)
Minority Whip: Joaquin Castro (Dem-TX)
Caucus Chair: Joe Crowley (Dem-NY)

[Simfan34]

I know this is your timeline, but the notion of Bobby Jindal being elected Senator is hysterical.

Well, it is Louisiana. For the purposes of the timeline, I decided to have him suddenly hit by some sense and realise he has no chance at the Presidency, and instead focus at cleaning up his record, getting some things done in his last months in office, and make amends with Vitter- and help his campaign- with an understanding that he'd get an appointment, after which he'd keep a fairly low profile and only do things that would generate positive headlines. If he could come to this sort of accommodation I see no reason why he wouldn't win.

[Simfan34]

Hillary Clinton steps out onto the West Front of the the United States Capitol with her husband on January 20, 2017, to be inaugurated as the first woman President of the United States.

Hillary Clinton was inaugurated as President of the United States on January 20, 2017. The inauguration, which was attended by more people than Obama's first inauguration in 2009, was as usual a grand event, although the preponderance of wealthy donors and campaign insiders amongst the attendees at the festivities was cause for criticism from progressives and others on the left, as well as some Republicans, who took particular aim at the large "contributions" required for general attendees to be in a position where they could merely see the new President in person. For the most part, however, most coverage was highly positive, focusing on what was without doubt a historic event.

President of the United States: Hillary Rodham Clinton (Dem-NY)

Vice President of the United States: Julian Castro (Dem-TX)

Shortly after her inauguration-- Hillary announced her nominees to the Cabinet:

Secretary of State: Wendy Sherman (?)

Secretary of the Treasury: Peter R. Orzsag (Dem-MA) Originally, Hillary's preferred choice to Treasury had been Lawrence Summers, who had occupied the post before during Bill Clinton's presidency. Summers had faced progressive opposition when it was rumored Obama would appoint him Fed Chairman in 2013. By the end of January 2017 no fewer than 7 Democratic Senators had declared they would not vote for Summers. As a result, Summers- who had never been officially been declared as a potential nominee- did not get the not, which instead went to Peter Orszag, formerly of Citibank, who had served as Director of the OMB under Obama.

Secretary of Defense: Ashton Carter (Dem-PA) The last Secretary of Defense in the Obama Administration, Carter was retained by the incoming Administration. This was due in no small part to the personal ties between Carter and Clinton- a factor crucial in the selection of most members of the Clinton cabinet; Carter had served in the Pentagon during Bill Clinton's administration, had supported Hillary in 2007, and had worked alongside her during her stint in the State Department. The pick of Carter was widely seen as signaling continuity in defense policy, something that had been expected.

Attorney-General: Beth Nolan (Dem-MD) Bill Clinton's last White House Counsel, Nolan more recently served as General Counsel for the George Washington University. A long-standing supporter of Hillary, she was seen as a reliable choice to head the Department of Justice

Secretary of the Interior: TBD

Secretary of Agriculture: Blanche Lincoln (Dem-AK) A long time Clinton supporter, the former Senator was given the post in what was widely seen as a show of gratitude.

Secretary of Commerce: Gene Sperling (Dem-MI) Director of the National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, lately of Pimco, Sterling is yet another Clinton insider. The appointment to Commerce suggests that that Department will have a higher profile in the Clinton administration than it has in the past

Secretary of Labor: Teresa Ghilarducci (Dem-IN) An academic and labor expert who taught at Notre Dame and was a trustee for several labor unions' pension funds, Ghilarducci became a close advisor to the 2016 campaign on labor and retirement issues. Having served on several government boards and in advisory posts, Ghilarducci's experience with government affairs meant that there was little opposition to her appointment.

Secretary of Health and Human Services: TBD

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Sarah Rosen Wartell (D-VA) An academic expert with the Center for American Progress, director of the Urban Institute, and close ties to John Podesta

Secretary of Transportation: Antonio Villaraigosa Having been widely considered a candidate for the post under Obama, Villaraigosa's record as Mayor of Los Angeles made him another top contender. A co-chairman of Hillary's campaign in 2008, his close ties to the Clintons made him an easy choice for the new cabinet.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Jane Harman (?)

Secretary of Energy: TBD

Secretary of Education: TBD

Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Tammy Duckworth (Dem-IL) Having narrowly lost to Mark Kirk in her bid for the Senate in November 2016, Duckworth, a former Army Lieutenant Colonel and Iraq War veteran, had to leave Congress at the start of the new session. A former director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs and Assistant Secretary in the federal  Department of Veterans Affairs, Duckworth, however, was highly experienced in that field and thus a natural choice for Veterans' Affairs, despite having been a vocal member of the House Benghazi Committee and criticised Clinton's conduct with her personal emails. The appointment was thus seen as an attempt to placate those who condemned the preponderance of "Clinton insiders" in the Cabinet.

White House Chief of Staff:
Huma Abedin (Dem-NY)

National Security Advisor:
Michele Flournoy (Dem-MA)

Senior Advisor to the President:
John Podesta (Dem-IL)

White House Press Secretary:
Jennifer Palmieri (Dem-NY)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Cheryl Mills for WH Counsel perhaps?