Northern Cyprus Presidential Election - April 19 and 26, 2015

[politicus]

First round of the Northern Cyprus prez election is on today, There will almost certainly be a run-off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus_presidential_election,_2015

Serious contenders:

Derviş Eroğlu (77) is the incumbent President supported by the (Conservative) National Unity Party.

Mustafa Akıncı (68) is an independent candidate with a background as Mayor and supported by a small leftist party. He looks most  likely to get in the run-off against the President, but Siber could cheat him. He leads 60/40 against Eroğlu in run-off polls.

Sibel Siber (55) is a trained physician, PM for a few  months back in 2013 and the Speaker of the Parliament. She is supported by the centre-left-ish Republican Turkish Party and Prime Minister Özkan Yorgancıoğlu.


(Very) long shot:

Kudret Özersay (41), Independent, diplomat. Best of the rest with about 10% support.


Also rans:

Mustafa Onurer, Cyprus Socialist Party

Arif Salih Kırdağ, Independent

Mustafa Ulaş, Independent

[politicus]

There will be a run-off on April 26 between Eroğlu and Akinci.

[Simfan34]

To what degree is Northern Cypriot politics a reflection of Turkish politics? Is the NUP an Islamist outfit like the AKP? Is the RTP a local version of the CHP?

[politicus]

Preliminary result:

Eroğlu 28,27% (much lower than in polls)
Mustafa Akıncı 26,88% (little lower than in polls)

Sibel Siber 22.45% (roughly as expected /slightly better)

Kudret Özersay 21,28% (twice as good as expected)


Turnout was 62.37%

[Clyde1998]

Lefkoşa
Mustafa Akıncı - 10,894 - 31.27%
Kudret Özersay - 8,091 - 23.23%
Derviş Eroğlu - 7,971 - 22.88%
Sibel Siber - 7,427 - 21.32%
Arif Salih Kırdağ - 212 - 0.61%
Mustafa Onurer - 135 - 0.39%
Mustafa Ulaş - 107 - 0.31%
Results from 213/213 polling stations on a 63.83% turnout

Gazimağusa
Derviş Eroğlu - 8,723 - 31.83%
Sibel Siber - 6,379 - 23.28%
Kudret Özersay - 6,177 - 22.54%
Mustafa Akıncı - 5,849 - 21.34%
Arif Salih Kırdağ - 118 - 0.43%
Mustafa Onurer - 102 - 0.37%
Mustafa Ulaş - 55 - 0.20%
Results from 178/178 polling stations on a 61.25% turnout

Girne
Mustafa Akıncı - 5,824 - 27.61%
Kudret Özersay - 5,410 - 25.65%
Derviş Eroğlu - 5,400 - 25.60%
Sibel Siber - 4,264 - 20.21%
Arif Salih Kırdağ - 94 - 0.45%
Mustafa Onurer - 68 - 0.32%
Mustafa Ulaş - 35 - 0.17%
Results from 140/140 polling stations on a 60.66% turnout

Güzelyurt
Mustafa Akıncı - 4,219 - 32.47%
Derviş Eroğlu - 3,990 - 30.70%
Sibel Siber - 3,033 - 23.34%
Kudret Özersay - 1,586 - 12.20%
Arif Salih Kırdağ - 70 - 0.54%
Mustafa Onurer - 69 - 0.53%
Mustafa Ulaş - 28 - 0.22%
Results from 84/84 polling stations on a 63.87% turnout

İskele
Derviş Eroğlu - 4,272 - 37.47%
Sibel Siber - 3,184 - 27.92%
Mustafa Akıncı - 2,220 - 19.47%
Kudret Özersay - 1,609 - 14.11%
Mustafa Onurer - 49 - 0.43%
Arif Salih Kırdağ - 37 - 0.32%
Mustafa Ulaş - 31 - 0.27%
Results from 78/78 polling stations on a 62.11% turnout

[politicus]

To what degree is Northern Cypriot politics a reflection of Turkish politics? Is the NUP an Islamist outfit like the AKP? Is the RTP a local version of the CHP?

Not really. There are two types of parties:

- Leftist parties in favour of a united Cyprus (and therefore not interested in integration with Turkey):
Republican Turkish Party (SocDem)
Communal Democracy Party (moderate Democratic Socialists and/or left wing SD)
United Cyprus Party (small more radical Democratic Socialist/True Leftism option - no seats)

- Conservative and Turkish nationalist parties created by the Denktas dynasty as their own political tools.
National Unity Party was created by Father of the Nation Rauf Denktas in 1975 and the Democratic Party by his son Serdar in 1992 as a slightly more moderate version of NUP (UBH in Turkish). NUP is a typical  party of power attracting the 3 Cs: careerists, cronies and clients. DP might be a bit better, but probably not much.

There was an attempt by moderates from DP and UBH to form a "Liberal" party (the Freedom and Reform Party), and it got a few seats in 2009, but did not run last time. It was more pro-Turkish than UBH and accused of having ties to AKP (but whether that was a reality is hard to say). They wanted Northern Cyprus not to disturb Turkeys relations to EU by blocking cooperation with the Greek Cypriots. Despite their quarrels with UBH most of their members (re)joined UBH after the party became defunct.

There are some ethnic things as well: Only half of the population are Turk Cypriots, the rest are mainland "Turks", Greek Cypriots and Maronites. The Christians vote on the left wing. Both the Conservative parties are controlled by Turk Cypriots and there is some animosity towards "mainlanders",  many of whom are not actually ethnic Turks but Laz (Black Sea region), Kurds or Arabs. The Conservative parties use mainlanders as vote banks, but they do not let them get to the top. Mainlanders vote Conservative even if they were leftist back home. So clientilism at work.

Along with not knowing how to grow a garden and putting plastic carpets on the floor, using headscarfs and veils are some of the things Turk Cypriots see as signs of the backwardness of mainlanders, so Islamism is not a selling point among them. Mainlanders seems too divided to form their own party.

[politicus]

Final result:

Derviş Eroğlu 30,328    28.2%      
Mustafa Akıncı 29,030 26.9%
------------------------------       
Sibel Siber    24,271    22.5%   
Kudret Özersay    22,895 21.3%

62,35% turnout

[politicus]

The Republican Turkish Party has endorsed Akinci, so he is now the candidate of all major leftist/centre-left parties.

Very clear East/West divide btw:



(map uses red for Eroğlu and blue for Akinci, which is of course silly)

[Famous Mortimer]

Akinci, the more leftist candidate, won.