Guinea presidential elections - October 11, 2015

[politicus]

This might be on the limit to electoral type events - but hopefully not, so I will make a thread.

Guinea in West Africa will be holding a presidential election on October 11. Former opposition leader and political prisoner Alpha Condé (77) won a disputed 2010 election and has been fairly authoritarian and tried to rig the electoral proces. Apart from the composition of the "Independent" Electoral Commission the main conflict was over local elections, which Condé has repeatedly postponed for 4 years (since its outbreak using the Ebola epidemic as excuse - Guinea being among the worst affected), keeping appointed Mayors, councillors and ward chiefs loyal to him in place.  The thought of unelected local officials, entirely dependent on the incumbent for their livelihood, determining who can register to vote and cast ballots on election day + counting the ballots and tabulating results has always been unacceptable to the opposition. Among other things 900,000 new voters have been registered, but far more in government strongholds than opposition areas.

After massive protests Condé and opposition reached a compromise in August and the opposition has gotten some representation in the electoral commission as well as representatives in local government, whether that will be enough remains to be seen. His main opponent is economist and former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo (63) running on a free market/democratic reforms platform.

They clashed in the 2010 presidential election - the first democratic election since independence from France in 1958 - after a military coup in 2008 following the death of President Lansana Conté (1984-2008), who again replaced independence leader Ahmed Sékou Touré (1958-1984) after a brief interregnum. So basically two authoritarian leaders and a coup led to flawed multiparty politics and this history has left the country without much in the way of democratic political culture and structures, which is why democratic local elections would have been important to secure a fair process.

In 2010 Cellou Dalein Diallo got 43.7% in the first round vs. Condés 18.3%, going on to lose 47.5 to 52.5 despite getting the endorsement of the third and fourth placed, who had received 13% and 7% respectively. This unlikely result has never been accepted by Diallos supporters.

Diallo is a Fula and Condé a Maninka and each of them belonging to one of the two largest ethnic groups in Guinea makes their rivalry toxic.

(I wil return to the candidates and their parties later)

[politicus]

Guinea holds 2/3 of the world’s largest reserve of bauxite + large reserves of gold, diamonds, iron ore, graphite, manganese etc. So potentially one of the richest countries in Africa, but very underdeveloped and being the epicenter of the Ebola outbreak wreaked havoc with an already shaky economy. Guinea is 85% Muslim and only 8% Christian, so the religious divide isn't an important cleavage and the leading politicians are all Muslims, but the potential for ethnic conflict is high and due to groups living on both sides of old colonial borders a civil war could easily spill over into neighbouring Mali, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast (all with recent civil wars of their own), so an important election for the stability of the region. If you want to know why Guinea matters, just look at a map.

[Simfan34]

Guinea is a basketcase, in other words. To be fair, it is less of a basketcase than most its neighbours-- which says more about the region than Guinea.

[politicus]

The main candidates:

The challenger

Cellou Dalein Diallo (63) is an ethnic Fule from Labé in Western Guinea (second largest city). He is an and economist and has since 2007 been the President of  the countrys main opposition party the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), which is one the many African parties claiming to be "Liberal" without really being it, but since Diallo advocates free market reforms and a constitution with increased independence of the judiciary and more checks and balances it is closer than most.



Diallo is educated at the University of Conakry and the Center for Financial, Economic and Banking Studies in Paris, and got into the civil service when he returned home in 1976. Starting out as an inspector of trade and moving on to the Bank of Foreign Trade in 1982 and the Central Bank 1985-95.

He was then handpicked by the President, General Lansana Conté, as manager of the Administration and Control of Great Projects (ACGP) and joined the government in 1996 as Minister of Transport subsequently being moved to wherever there was need for a problem solver Telecommunications and Tourism, Minister of Infrastructure 1997-99, Minister of Public Works and Transport 1999-2003, Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture 2003-04 before getting promoted to PM in late 2004. In 2006 he tried to place his allies in key positions and personally take over a number of portfolios (economy, finance, international cooperation and planning), but was blocked by the SG of the Presidency Fodé Bangoura and Conté's financier/main business crony Mamadou Sylla. Soldiers interrupted the proclamation of these changes and Diallo was sacked and placed unde house arrest for a while.In 2007 he then reentered the political stage as leader of UFDG, but claiming he was still on friendly terms with Conté.

After Conté died in December 2008 the military seized power in a coup d'état and Diallo went into exile in France and Senegal. He urged junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara not to run in the 2010 presidential elections and returned to Conakry to lead the opposition. He was injured at the big protest in 2009 where soldiers opened fire and killed 157 people and first refused to leave the country, but was then transported to Dakar aboard the Senegalese presidential plane (he has excellent Senegalese contacts). After being shot in the head during an assassination attempt General Camara subsequently gave up running in the election and the military accepted a return to civilian rule.

Diallo got 43.7% in the first round of the 2010 presidential election, but only improved to 47,5% in the second and was defeated by Alpha Condé in the second round despite endorsements from the third and fourth placed (which had 20% support combined). He has personally accepted this result, but his supporters haven't.

Being in full control of his party he was selected as UFDG's presidential candidate at their congress in July.

So bureaucrat, banker and Minister under a dictatorial regime turned opposition leader after a "coup attempt" that likely had more to do with personal ambition and covering over corruption than any deep felt commitment to democracy. Whereas his commitment to free market policies and a pro-business line has been a trademark right from he entered the public arena. Has a reputation as a problem solver and efficient manager and would likely be an improvement over the current President.

[politicus]

The incumbent

Alpha Condé (77) is a Mandinka public law scholar from Boke in Lower Guinea (but both his parents are from Upper Guinea).



At the tender age of 15 Conde left for France in 1953 to get an academic education and finishing with a doctorate in public law from Sorbonne in 1965. He then taught courses at the Faculty of Law and Economics at Sorbonne and at Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Télécommunications. Meanwhile he started to rise within both the National Union of Higher Education (SNESUP) and the Association of Guinean students in France (AEGF) as well as the Black African Students' Federation in France (FEANF), where he became President in 1963.

These activities earned him a death sentence in absentia from the regime of President Sekou Toure, so like most of his fellow Guinean intellectuals he had to remain in exile.
In 1977 Alpha Conde created the National Democratic Movement (MND) together with a handful of other prominent Socialist intellectuals as a basis for resistance against the regime. This movement went through various incarnations being renamed first UJP (Unity, Justice, Homeland) then RPG (Rally of the Guinean patriots) and finally the current RPG (Rally of the People of Guinea) afte the legalization of multiparty politics in 1990 after which Alpha Condé returned to Guinea after 37 years in exile.

In 1993 he ran against General Lansana Conte, who had been president since the 1984 coup. General Conté was declared the winner with 51.7% in an election international said was fraudulous and the opposition unanimously disputed the official results. Among other things the Supreme Court threw out all results for the Mandinka dominated prefectures Kankan and Siguiri where Alpha Conde would have won big. Conde asked his supporters not to take the risk of civil war and concentrate on the next ballot. He tried running again 1998, but was arrested and imprisoned.

The official results published declared Conte winner of the first round with 56.1% followed by arrest of many opposition leaders are arrested on suspicion of preparing a rebellion. In 2000 Conde was sentenced to five years in prison by a specially appointed "Guinean State Security Court", for "offenses against the state authority and the integrity of national territory". He was finally released in 2001, subject to a presidential pardon after massive international pressure. Hee then returned to France.

After General Conte died in December 2008 and the subsequent seizure of power by a military junta led by Captain Dadis Camara, the now 70 year old Conde returned to Guinea and focused his political action on the return to civilian rule and getting “fair, inclusive and transparent elections”. He organized the "Forces Vives" consisting of opposition parties, trade unions and other civil society organizations.

In the  2010 presidential elections Alpha Conde came second in the first round with a mere 18.3% of the votes, which was enough to qualify for the second route against Diallo who got 43.7%. On 15 November 2010 he was declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) with 52.5% of the vote against  Diallos 47.5% (as I have mentioned before).

At his inauguration Alpha Condé promised "a new era" and announced his intention to become "the Mandela of Guinea". Three days after his inauguration he appointed economist Mohamed Said Fofana as prime ministre. But economic growth has been slow, the press is censored and harrased and the human rights situation is generally worse than under the junta (although miles better than under General Conte).

In July 2011 soldiers attacked his private residence in Conakry with rockets, but Alpha Conde escaped unharmed. He finally accepted parliamentary elections to be held in 2013 an his party got 47.6%, against 24.1% for Diallos UFDG and 9.6% for fellow former PM and free market loving technocrat Sidya Tourés UFR.

So an old Socialist and political prisoner who got into power and turned out to be pretty good at oppressing dissidents himself. Even if his party is a member of Socialist International and Progressive Alliance, so he officially is the left wing candidate going up against a neo-liberal challenger forum leftists should not make the mistake of taking this even remotely serious. Conde and his cronies are quite close to various shady business interests, they are just pretty bad at capitalism, whereas Diallo has showed himself as an efficient manager in various capacities.

In addition to incumbency and control of the state Conde has the advantage, that Diallos Fula people make up 40% of Guineas population and the various smaller ethnic groups are reluctant to give them the presidency preferring a candidate from the 26% Mandinkas - if they have to accept a leader from "the big two". But he has been so bad at managing the economy that this may backfire, because it also gives Diallo a very high floor.

(still, all this may not be all that relevant if Conde decides to order a "positive" result of the vote tabulation - but this could be quite risky)

[politicus]

So far 11 opposition parties have formed a coalition that require them to support whichever of their candidates reaches the second round, which is guaranteed to be Diallo.

Eight candidates have been accepted by the Independent National Electoral Commission to run for the presidency - coming from all parts of the country. Seven men and one (Catholic) woman. They include the leader of the third largest party former PM Sidya Touré, who is also in the joint opposition coalition and likely to poll third.

Main contenders:

Alpha Condé (see above)
Cellou Dalein Diallo (see above)


Others:

Sidya Touré (70), leader of Union des Forces Républicaines (UFR), PM 1996-99, running on a free market/low taxes economic policy and democratic reforms.

Lansana Kouyaté (65), leader of Parti de l'Espoir pour le Développement National (PEDN) VP of the pro-government Rainbow Alliance, former diplomat with top posts in UN and ECOWAS, PM 2007-08, will support Condé in the second round. His micro party has 2 of 114 seats in parliament, not sure if it stands for anything except promoting Kouyaté, probably not.

Papa Koly Kourouma (c. 50), leader of Génération pour la Réconciliation, l’Union et la Prospérité (GRUP), Minister of Energy. Is a relative of the 2008 coup leader Captain Moussa Dadis and was  Minister of the Environment in the 2008-10 military government. His party is based in the forest region in Southern Guinea with its stronghold in the prefectures Beyla and N'Zérékoré, both marred by on and off ethnic violence since 1991 - with recent clashes in July.

Dr. Faya Millimouno (c. 50), leader of Bloc Libéral (BL), critique of the handling of Ebola epidemic and the health system in general is his main selling point, also poverty alleviation.

George Gandhi Faraguet Tounkara (c. 65), Minister of Higher Education during the transitional government in 2010. He has been an influential member of the United Front for Democracy and Change (FUDEC), which was founded by François Louncény Fall, the current Foreign Minister, but has now teamed up with the Guinean Union for Democracy and Development (UGDD) led by Holomou Kourouma. Claims his relationship with Fall is excellent and FUDEC has just "melted away" in the Rainbow Alliance. Closer to the regime than the other opposition candidates. Not sure what he is doing in this race. Maybe just self promotion/ego.

Marie Madeleine Dioubaté (c. 40), leader of Parti des Ecologistes de Guinée (PEG) (see post below)


Comment:

The recent opposition/government compromise gave the opposition representation in 128 of Guinea's 343 local districts and the right to replace a couple of recently deceased members of the Independent National Electoral Commission with opposition candidates, but this may not be enough. Still 215 districts with only appointed councillors.

[politicus]

Guess we have our progressive heroine in this election. Marie Madeleine Dioubaté, leader of Parti des Ecologistes de Guinée (PEG):

''I am neither with the opposition nor the ruling party. I define myself as a Social Democratic person, who also wants to have a strong private sector in this country''

"We must help private players to develop. We must help to give women access to microcredit and development projects."

The president of the PEG states that she launched her presidential bid "to give employment to youth, improve girls' education, food sufficiency, create a better framework for the health system and provide adequate housing to citizens."

Environmentalism being conspicuously absent from her platform despite the name. But possibly any reference to Socialism is just too tainted in Guinea by Conde, so calling yourself Green might be the alternative - but most likely it is just an attempt to attract Western donors.

She intends to campaign door to door and claims her grass roots campaign can compete with those with "deep pockets".

[Hash]

To you Francophones: How would you translate L'alliance Arc-en-ciel? The Heavenly Gate Alliance?
Does it have any special connotations in French apart from the obvious?

Arc-en-ciel means rainbow.

[politicus]

To you Francophones: How would you translate L'alliance Arc-en-ciel? The Heavenly Gate Alliance?
Does it have any special connotations in French apart from the obvious?

Arc-en-ciel means rainbow.

Oh, that makes sense. My bad.

[Famous Mortimer]

So far 11 opposition parties have formed a coalition that require them to support whichever of their candidates reaches the second round, which is guaranteed to be Diallo.

Eight candidates have been accepted by the Independent National Electoral Commission to run for the presidency - coming from all parts of the country. Seven men and one (Catholic) woman. They include the leader of the third largest party former PM Sidya Touré, who is also in the joint opposition coalition and likely to poll third.

Main contenders:

Alpha Condé (see above)
Cellou Dalein Diallo (see above)


Others:

Sidya Touré (70), leader of Union des Forces Républicaines (UFR), PM 1996-99, running on a free market/low taxes economic policy and democratic reforms.

Lansana Kouyaté (65), leader of Parti de l'Espoir pour le Développement National (PEDN) VP of the pro-government Rainbow Alliance, former diplomat with top posts in UN and ECOWAS, PM 2007-08, will support Condé in the second round. His micro party has 2 of 114 seats in parliament, not sure if it stands for anything except promoting Kouyaté, probably not.

Papa Koly Kourouma (c. 50), leader of Génération pour la Réconciliation, l’Union et la Prospérité (GRUP), Minister of Energy. Is a relative of the 2008 coup leader Captain Moussa Dadis and was  Minister of the Environment in the 2008-10 military government. His party is based in the forest region in Southern Guinea with its stronghold in the prefectures Beyla and N'Zérékoré, both marred by on and off ethnic violence since 1991 - with recent clashes in July.

Dr. Faya Millimouno (c. 50), leader of Bloc Libéral (BL), critique of the handling of Ebola epidemic and the health system in general is his main selling point, also poverty alleviation.

George Gandhi Faraguet Tounkara (c. 65), Minister of Higher Education during the transitional government in 2010. He has been an influential member of the United Front for Democracy and Change (FUDEC), which was founded by François Louncény Fall, the current Foreign Minister, but has now teamed up with the Guinean Union for Democracy and Development (UGDD) led by Holomou Kourouma. Claims his relationship with Fall is excellent and FUDEC has just "melted away" in the Rainbow Alliance. Closer to the regime than the other opposition candidates. Not sure what he is doing in this race. Maybe just self promotion/ego.

Marie Madeleine Dioubaté (c. 40), leader of Parti des Ecologistes de Guinée (PEG) (see post below)


Comment:

The recent opposition/government compromise gave the opposition representation in 128 of Guinea's 343 local districts and the right to replace a couple of recently deceased members of the Independent National Electoral Commission with opposition candidates, but this may not be enough. Still 215 districts with only appointed councillors.

Worth noting that Kouyaté is the fourth place candidate from 2010 who endorsed Diallo before switching to Conde after Conde won. So yeah, no real ideology beyond self promotion/patronage.

[politicus]

Yeah, the top five from 2010 are all running again:

1st round:

Cellou Dalein Diallo UFDG 43.7
Alpha Condé RPG 18.3
Sidya Touré UFR   13.0
Lansana Kouyaté PEDN 7.0
Papa Koly Kouroumah RDR 5.7

[politicus]

After massive pre-election violence and an unsuccessful attempt by the opposition to get it postponed the election day went peacefully and with high turnout.

Polls closed at 18:00GMT, but results are not expected until between 3-5 days after the elections.

[Sir John Johns]

Partial results gave Alpha Condé reelected in the first round with Cellou Dalein Diallo placing a distant second and the remaining candidates lagging far behind Condé and Diallo.

Earlier this week, the seven candidates opposed to Condé held a joint press conference at which they demanded the annulment of the first round results arguing that the election has been plagued by widespread fraud and numerous logistics problems. One of the biggest issues was the fact that the names of the voters on the electoral roll weren't arranged in alphabetical order leading to massive confusion when voters tried to identify themselves. According to Sidya Touré, most of the frauds took place in Forested Guinea.

Diallo and Touré have also announced their complete withdrawal from the electoral process.

The whole provisional results are set to be proclaimed tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, looks like the Condé regime will be no more democratic than its predecessors.

African politics are depressing.

[Famous Mortimer]

I mean, it's also possible Conde legitimately won. It's not like there's been a single African election in the last decade where the opposition didn't claim rigging.

[politicus]

I mean, it's also possible Conde legitimately won. It's not like there's been a single African election in the last decade where the opposition didn't claim rigging.

EU observers at least say it was "free and fair".

http://www.dw.com/en/guinea-ballot-valid-says-eu-observer-mission/a-18779636

Also, Diallo's Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) has broken its alliance with Sidya Toure's the Union of Republican Forces (URF).

[politicus]

President Alpha Conde won the absolute majority in the first round according to Guinea's electoral commission. Final numbers awaiting the Constitutional Court, which is set to ratify the election after an eight-day appeal deadline. But Diallo has given up on appealing, claiming the CC is biased.

Alpha Conde 57.9
Cellou Dalein 31.4
Sidya Touré 6.0

Turnout 68.4

http://www.ceniguinee.org/attachments/article/137/ceni_recapitulatif_general_election_presidentielle_resultat_synthese.pdf

Diallo is accusing the government of ballot stuffing, intimidation, changing the electoral map and enabling minors to vote. He has urged protests against what he calls an "electoral hold-up."

Conde's spokesman Albert Damantang Camara has condemned Diallo's call for protests, saying "there has never been a peaceful demonstration in Guinea" (which AFAIK is entirely correct).

"Asking people to come out into the streets risks dragging the country into instability, chaos and violence"

[Sir John Johns]

Unsurprisingly, Condé made his best results in the Maninka-populated prefectures with results over 90%. More interestingly, he made a breakthrough in Forested Guinea (the Southeast) - where the native candidates Kouyaté and Kourouma failed to repeat their good results of 2010 – and in Maritime Guinea at the expense of Sidya Touré who was ahead there back in 2010.

For his part, Diallo topped the polls in the Fula-populated prefectures (receiving his best results in his native prefecture of Labé; 87.11%) and in Ratoma, Conakry's second most-populated commune and a stronghold of the opponents to Condé. Diallo also won the vote of Guinean expatriates.