Guatemalan general election - 13 September 2015/25 October Run-Off/Morales wins

[ag]

Guatemalan vice-president resigned yesterday, because of corruption allegations.

[ag]

I have spent a few days in Guatemala this week. Not because of elections, but did see the campaign in full swing. Will try to get some observations out within the next few days.

[ag]

This looks like an internet poll.

[ag]

Ok

It was a work trip, so I did not have much time to observe: and Guatemalan papers are not extremely high quality, which will be reflected in the quality of my reporting The general opinion seems to be that Baldizon is ahead, but I am not entirely certain how much of that is polls, and how much is the overall impression of inevitability. A big preoccupation is with candidates being disqualified for criminal record. There is a push from some quarters to disqualify even those in the "pre-indictment stage" ("anteproceso"), which would include Baldizon's VP.

A more interesting issue that occupies newspapers (and is partially related with the disqualification) is the electoral reform. Believe it or not, they are still trying to change the rules. Mostly, this has to do with regulating party changing and reelection. Apparently, some "social coalition" has submitted a proposal, which the electoral tribunal modified, and which is currently before the outgoing congress. Newspapers are full of calls for protests if it does not get approved. And, of course, the city is full of demonstrations by the parties: never the easiest city to get around, it is worse than usual.

I will look up the papers I brought with me to give some taste of the sort of the news that is out there. Though, of course, the most memorable headline while I was there was "1537 killed from motorcycles during the current administration". Really makes you look around when you hear a motor Still, I love Guatemala

[ag]

Basically, there was a ring involved in tax- and, mostly, customs-evasion. Ostensibly, the key person in the ring was the private secretary to the former VP Baldetti. They had previously arrested a whole bunch of people: including the ex-VP and around 20 other top civil servants. Late in August there was some tape made public that was viewed as conclusively linking Perez Molina to the ring. The Congress was unanimous in stripping him of immunity - perhaps, his lame-duckness played a role, but, clearly, his political support has evaporated.

[ag]

Closed 7 min ago.

[ag]

Apparently, by noon, with 6 hours to go, the turnout was already over 50%.

[ag]

Results should start appearing soon here

http://www.tse.org.gt/

[ag]

First actual results. Staggering 33 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (0.17%)

FCN 27.0%
LIDER 17.0%
UNE 16.4%
TODOS 6.3%
UCN 5.1%
PP 4.9%
Blank votes 4.0%
Invalid votes 3.8%

I will, for the moment, only report those who do better than blank.

[ag]

261 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (1.33%)

FCN 25.2%
LIDER 18.9%
UNE 15.4%
TODOS 6.3%
Blank votes 5.4%
PP 4.7%
UCN 4.4%
Invalid votes 4.2%

[ag]

745 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (3.8%)

FCN 26.9%
LIDER 21.4%
UNE 18.0%
TODOS 7.4%
Blank votes 5.6%
PP 5.0%
Invalid votes 4.3%

[ag]

2,416 out of 19,582 precincts reporting (12.3%)

FCN 25.8%
LIDER 21.7%
UNE 19.2%
TODOS 6.9%
Blank votes 5.6%
Invalid votes 4.4%

Almost nothing, yet, from Guatemala City. Pretty close fight for the second spot.

[ag]

3549 precincts (18.1%) reporting

FCN 25.6%
LIDER 21.2%
UNE 19.2%
UNE 6.9%

[ag]

4,227 precincts (21.6%)

Jimmy Morales FCN 25.5%
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 20.9%
Sandra Torres UNE 19.0%
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 6.8%
Blank votes 5.4%
Zury Rios VIVA 4.9%
Invalid votes 4.3%

[ag]

Unless I am misunderstanding something, TSE is reporting the incredible turnout of 97%!

[ag]

A chunk of Guatemala City has arrived, and it does change things, though not much:

8261 precincts reporting (42.2%)
Jimmy Morales FCN 26.3%
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 18.5%
Sandra Torres UNE 17.2%
Alejandro Giammattei FUERZA 7.5%
Zury Rios VIVA 6.4%
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 6.0%
Blank votes 4.7%
Invalid votes 3.9%

[ag]

Have to go to bed, but, so far the results, with 9,543 precincts reporting (48.7%)

Jimmy Morales FCN 26.5%
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 18.1%
Sandra Torres UNE 17.0%
Alejandro Giammattei FUERZA 7.9%
Zury Rios VIVA 6.7%
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 5.8%
Blank votes 4.6%
Invalid votes 3.8%

The second spot has been stable, but it is far from guaranteed. The margin between the second and the third is around 25,000 votes, and it has shrunk a bit recently. Still quite a fight for the run-off.

[ag]

Turnout is currently 69.6% and should be over 70% when all stations have reported.

Ah, yes, I see that now, ag's post earlier misled me.

I had been misled by Prensa Libre - and made a point of registering my doubts. The report said, " abstension at 3%" (using a typical turn for those not showing up). They must have missed a zero.

[ag]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

[ag]

When Torres's husband was president, the government produce a great series of books on Guatemalan history and literature. One reason for me to support her this time

[ag]

Tightening again.

Torres 931,133
Baldizon 929,123

[ag]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

Does Jimmy Morales have specifically right-wing positions?

Not really. Positions are rare in Guate. But, at least, he is not merely a "transportista".

[ag]

When Torres's husband was president, the government produce a great series of books on Guatemalan history and literature. One reason for me to support her this time

I actually was sightseeing in Guatemala during her husband's 2007 victorious campaign, I followed the election closely in the papers, Guatemala is a very political nation it seems, they have signs posted or even painted nearly everywhere, even in very very remote places, and although I was rooting for UNRG and Menchu over him, he was my candidate of choice for the runoff, so I guess I'll be supporting her as well.

Well, I was there a month ago. Yeah, they are very much into politics.

[ag]

930,590 for Torres vs. 928,110 for Baldizon. Very unexpected!

But it looks like it could be a proper  left/right second round.

Does Jimmy Morales have specifically right-wing positions?

No. An article in this week's ever-excellent Semana magazine quoted a Guatemalan academic who described him as a 'clown without a team or a credible manifesto',

Pretty common description of political candidates in Guatemala.

[ag]

Anyway, so far, with 19,127 precincts reporting (97.67%) it is

Jimmy Morales FCN 1,156,611 votes (23.95% of  valid votes)
Sandra Torres UNE 947,396 votes (19.62%)
Manuel Baldizon LIDER 944,561 votes (19.56%)
Alejandro Giammattei FUERZA 314,457 votes (6.51%)
Zury Rios VIVA 286,590 votes (5.94%)
Blank  266,682 votes
Lizardo Sosa TODOS 258,009 votes (5.34%)
Mario Garcia PP 222,163 votes (4.60%)
Invalid 221,964 votes