1988 - California without Reagan's help...does Bush 41 hang on?

[sg0508]

Or, as we've said over and over, was the 47 electoral votes Bush won there truly the "final gift from Reagan?"

It's so interesting how close CA was in so many races from '52-'88 and the Democrats only won it once during the LBJ landslide.

[Sumner 1868]

Bush Sr wouldn't be running that year at all without Reagan. There's little doubt in my mind Reagan is the only thing that won him that state, though.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It had been 14 years since Reagan was governor of the state...could he have really made the difference?

[Podgy the Bear]

Not sure if Reagan made the difference in California.  The Republicans in California were relatively unified at that point.  At that time, George Deukmejian had won reelection for governor in 1986, and Pete Wilson was reelected senator in 1988.    And then Wilson was elected governor in 1990. 

But the state was starting to trend left by then--and it really intensified in the years to follow.

[CountyTy90]

Not sure if Reagan made the difference in California.  The Republicans in California were relatively unified at that point.  At that time, George Deukmejian had won reelection for governor in 1986, and Pete Wilson was reelected senator in 1988.    And then Wilson was elected governor in 1990. 

But the state was starting to trend left by then--and it really intensified in the years to follow.

I think he's the key to Bush winning. Sure, Reagan helped, but go and look at old campaign videos on C Span, Duke is behind Bush in every single one. Obviously Reagan couldn't be there all the time, but I really think Duke got the win for Bush. There were even rumors Bush wanted Duekmejian to be his Vice President.

[Hydera]

It had been 14 years since Reagan was governor of the state...could he have really made the difference?

The economy was still prospering in cali until the 1991 recession, Reagan was popular enough at that year to get HW to win it, albeit by a small margin only.

Or, as we've said over and over, was the 47 electoral votes Bush won there truly the "final gift from Reagan?"

It's so interesting how close CA was in so many races from '52-'88 and the Democrats only won it once during the LBJ landslide.

It only became a democrat stronghold post-1992 due to the hispanic vote, I think Reagan might of regretted signing the amnesty because he thought it would create a new voter base for the GOP among hispanics being thankful for the amnesty he signed, only for them to vote for the democrats.

Whats more interesting is how central valley+interior went from lean democrat to strong republican.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Could the fact that the California Republicans were still able to cast a vote of confidence in Reagan through his Vice President have kept the state from swinging two points into the Dukakis column?

Sure, I think so.  That's not that big of a stretch. 

[Mr. Smith]

Nope, no Reagan = more turnout in the key counties such as Sacramento, Sierra, Plumas, Napa, and the rural Central Valley.

Sacramento and Napa would've joined the Bay Area, and the other counties would've been an effective Dakota thing.

[TDAS04]

Probably.

[bobloblaw]

It had been 14 years since Reagan was governor of the state...could he have really made the difference?

The economy was still prospering in cali until the 1991 recession, Reagan was popular enough at that year to get HW to win it, albeit by a small margin only.

Or, as we've said over and over, was the 47 electoral votes Bush won there truly the "final gift from Reagan?"

It's so interesting how close CA was in so many races from '52-'88 and the Democrats only won it once during the LBJ landslide.

It only became a democrat stronghold post-1992 due to the hispanic vote, I think Reagan might of regretted signing the amnesty because he thought it would create a new voter base for the GOP among hispanics being thankful for the amnesty he signed, only for them to vote for the democrats.

Whats more interesting is how central valley+interior went from lean democrat to strong republican.

It wasnt just hispancs, it was a few things
1. The decline of the defense industry starting in 1989.
2. The recession of 1990-91 hit CA especially hard.