CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points
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  CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points  (Read 1985 times)
Gallium
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« on: April 20, 2015, 07:07:38 AM »
« edited: April 20, 2015, 07:29:02 AM by Gallium »

Clinton increases her lead in every matchup.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/04/20/cnnorc2016poll04202015.pdf

Clinton 56%
Bush 39%

Clinton 58%
Christie 39%

Clinton 55%
Rubio 41%

Clinton 58%
Huckabee 37%

Clinton 58%
Paul 39%

Clinton 60%
Carson 36%

Clinton 59%
Walker 37%

Clinton 60%
Cruz 36%

That post-announcement surge!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2015, 07:14:31 AM »

Joke poll.

If we look at the recent state polls by Marquette, PPP etc. - then Hillary Clinton is ahead by 5-10% nationally against the "best" Republicans.

CNN's margins are completely overblown.

Also notice that this is a poll of "adults", but only 55% of "adults" will actually vote next year.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2015, 07:30:39 AM »

lol

sure!!!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2015, 07:47:16 AM »

Wow... Hillary winning 60% of the vote in the South, winning white voters, winning 65% of female voters, winning 70-80% of the younger voters, winning Independents by 15 points, winning RURAL VOTERS (!), winning non-whites by a bigger margin than Obama, winning voters 65 and older....

You guys were right! She is the second coming of FDR! Monarch and Polls_PuffPass... accept your accolades! Smiley
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2015, 07:56:52 AM »

Seems like national polls are pretty useless these days. Remember how the Romney campaign were putting all of their faith in the national polls which pretty much showed a tie in 2012 (on top of the scewed polls ridiculousness). The state polls never showed the race to be all that close and it wasn't.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2015, 08:46:17 AM »

A lot of Clinton Derangement Syndrome in this thread.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2015, 09:01:30 AM »

A lot of Clinton Derangement Syndrome in this thread.

Nope. Rather a lot of joke polls on the 2016 board.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2015, 09:03:13 AM »

At this point nobody knows who will appear at the polls. "Registered voters" include people who will not vote in 2016 due to death or debility; "adults" does not include people now 16 or 17 who will be voting in 2016.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2015, 09:15:16 AM »

If clinton wins by half these margins it's a bloodbath for the GOP.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2015, 09:38:37 AM »

Wouldn't it be terrific if Hillary won by this much? 

Sadly, I think this is an overly optimistic poll.  But, it's still a data point and helps to illustrate Hillary Clinton's enormous strength going into the campaign. 
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2015, 10:20:05 AM »

A lot of Clinton Derangement Syndrome in this thread.

^^^^

I'm gonna enjoy a full year and a half of drinking Hillary Hater tears.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2015, 10:29:07 AM »

A lot of Clinton Derangement Syndrome in this thread.

Go ahead and think that but the anti-Clinton brigade will have the last laugh when her victory margin is only between 4-14.
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emailking
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2015, 10:59:54 AM »

Does the inclusion of all adults explain why they keep getting such Clinton favorable polls? Or is there something else going on? (Not saying they're wrong, but they're definitely a lot more Clinton favorable than other polls.)
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2015, 11:45:57 AM »

This is a nonsense poll.

One, there is no way Rubio is ahead in FL if he is down nationally by 14. FL didnt go from R+1 to R+9 or more. There is a home state advantage, but it isnt that great.

Also with Hillary polling at 56%, that is at Eisenhower landslide and closing in on Reagan landslide. Does anyone get the sense that is happening? That much support for Hillary? If she was doing that well, there wouldnt be angst among Dem party officials and liberals about her nomination.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2015, 11:51:54 AM »

This is a nonsense poll.

One, there is no way Rubio is ahead in FL if he is down nationally by 14. FL didnt go from R+1 to R+9 or more. There is a home state advantage, but it isnt that great.

Also with Hillary polling at 56%, that is at Eisenhower landslide and closing in on Reagan landslide. Does anyone get the sense that is happening? That much support for Hillary? If she was doing that well, there wouldnt be angst among Dem party officials and liberals about her nomination.

Nobody pays attention to the specific details of a poll this far from an election. 

Presidential elections in recent memory and intensely partisan affairs where the margins aren't close to this.  So, it would be ridiculous to think Hillary Clinton is going to get 60% or whatever.  Even if every poll at this point said she was at 60% for the general election, the race will inevitably narrow when people revert to their partisan leanings. 

I think what you can say when every poll has Hillary Clinton ahead this early, is that she has an initial advantage. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2015, 11:55:38 AM »

Does the inclusion of all adults explain why they keep getting such Clinton favorable polls? Or is there something else going on? (Not saying they're wrong, but they're definitely a lot more Clinton favorable than other polls.)

In almost all recent presidential elections, adult polls are much more Democratic than RV polls or LV polls. Everyone knows that.

Mostly because non-registered and non-voting adults are strongly leaning-Democratic.

A poll before the 2012 GE has shown that unregistered and non-voting adults would back Obama over Romney by a 60-10 margin, with the rest undecided.

Considering that only 55-60% of adults will vote next year, it makes no sense to poll all adults for a presidential election.

Polling all adults makes only sense if you want to poll issues like crime, gun rights, gay marriage or health care etc., because these issues involve every adult.

Obviously, Hillary is not ahead by 15-20% nationally - but still ahead by a good amount.

I'd say if you have an adult poll showing Hillary ahead by 10 nationally, you can shave off 2% for RV results and another 2-3% for a likely voter poll.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2015, 11:58:52 AM »

Wow... Hillary winning 60% of the vote in the South, winning white voters, winning 65% of female voters, winning 70-80% of the younger voters, winning Independents by 15 points, winning RURAL VOTERS (!), winning non-whites by a bigger margin than Obama, winning voters 65 and older....

You guys were right! She is the second coming of FDR! Monarch and Polls_PuffPass... accept your accolades! Smiley

The others are ridiculous, but 65% of women is certainly possible in a best case scenario for the first female nominee and 60% seems quite likely in any scenario where she wins.  Remember, Obama increased by 8% over Kerry with black voters.  Women went 55% Obama in 2012, so an equivalent gain for Clinton would be 63% of women.  And women are almost surely more elastic in their voting patterns.  
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2015, 02:33:01 PM »

Even cutting in half her margins this is still a terrible poll for Republicans.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2015, 03:37:08 PM »



Though as others have noted, you can take a chunk off her margins due to the fact that it's among adults rather than RVs or LVs. Still excellent news though!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: April 20, 2015, 03:41:44 PM »

One, there is no way Rubio is ahead in FL if he is down nationally by 14. FL didnt go from R+1 to R+9 or more. There is a home state advantage, but it isnt that great.

Also with Hillary polling at 56%, that is at Eisenhower landslide and closing in on Reagan landslide. Does anyone get the sense that is happening? That much support for Hillary? If she was doing that well, there wouldnt be angst among Dem party officials and liberals about her nomination.

Easily explainable. This poll is among adults, so Hillary's margins are overblown. On the other side of the fence, Mason Dixon is a junk pollster that has an enormous Republican bias (they said Romney would win FL by 6 points.) When you correct for both of these factors and also consider the home state bonus, the results more or less line up.

Also, there is no angst among Democrats about Hillary's nomination. It's a media narrative with no basis in reality. Just look at the polls for proof of that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2015, 03:51:58 PM »

If we look at the recent state polls by Marquette, PPP etc. - then Hillary Clinton is ahead by 5-10% nationally against the "best" Republicans.

Well, considering she was supposed to tie or trail Bush and Walker immediately after her announcement, I'll take a 5-10 point lead. Wink

So, Hillary already dropped 5% or so this week compared to previous polls and she'll likely drop another 5% right after she announces her run.

Creating a tied race already.

And in the end she might lose too (maybe even in a landslide).

I told you Hillary-fetishists early about this, but you were not listening ...
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porky88
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2015, 05:47:31 PM »

Couldn't they at least release a version with RV? This poll is more about making headlines on The Situation Room.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: April 20, 2015, 09:32:47 PM »

God bless Wolf Blitzer.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2015, 04:07:10 AM »

Couldn't they at least release a version with RV? This poll is more about making headlines on The Situation Room.

Yeah, I don't get it either. You can probably mentally apply the RV screen by taking ~5 points or so off her margin, which makes it look more realistic, though still much better for her than the pre announcement consensus. Looks like she did get an announcement bounce despite all the people who said she would get either no bounce at all or a negative one...

Hilarious fact: She leads Carson and Cruz among every single demographic besides Republicans/conservatives/Tea Partiers.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2015, 04:42:03 PM »

Just like the non-prompting polls, I think AA polls are interesting to have once in a while, just to see the contrast. They give you an idea of how things are going in general and the contrast shows the gap between the population as a whole and the RV or LV population.

But just like the non-prompting polls, the media should be clear when reporting the results and the poll averaging sites should not lump this without adjustment.
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