CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points (user search)
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  CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points  (Read 2028 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: April 20, 2015, 03:37:08 PM »



Though as others have noted, you can take a chunk off her margins due to the fact that it's among adults rather than RVs or LVs. Still excellent news though!
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2015, 03:41:44 PM »

One, there is no way Rubio is ahead in FL if he is down nationally by 14. FL didnt go from R+1 to R+9 or more. There is a home state advantage, but it isnt that great.

Also with Hillary polling at 56%, that is at Eisenhower landslide and closing in on Reagan landslide. Does anyone get the sense that is happening? That much support for Hillary? If she was doing that well, there wouldnt be angst among Dem party officials and liberals about her nomination.

Easily explainable. This poll is among adults, so Hillary's margins are overblown. On the other side of the fence, Mason Dixon is a junk pollster that has an enormous Republican bias (they said Romney would win FL by 6 points.) When you correct for both of these factors and also consider the home state bonus, the results more or less line up.

Also, there is no angst among Democrats about Hillary's nomination. It's a media narrative with no basis in reality. Just look at the polls for proof of that.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2015, 03:51:58 PM »

If we look at the recent state polls by Marquette, PPP etc. - then Hillary Clinton is ahead by 5-10% nationally against the "best" Republicans.

Well, considering she was supposed to tie or trail Bush and Walker immediately after her announcement, I'll take a 5-10 point lead. Wink

So, Hillary already dropped 5% or so this week compared to previous polls and she'll likely drop another 5% right after she announces her run.

Creating a tied race already.

And in the end she might lose too (maybe even in a landslide).

I told you Hillary-fetishists early about this, but you were not listening ...
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2015, 04:07:10 AM »

Couldn't they at least release a version with RV? This poll is more about making headlines on The Situation Room.

Yeah, I don't get it either. You can probably mentally apply the RV screen by taking ~5 points or so off her margin, which makes it look more realistic, though still much better for her than the pre announcement consensus. Looks like she did get an announcement bounce despite all the people who said she would get either no bounce at all or a negative one...

Hilarious fact: She leads Carson and Cruz among every single demographic besides Republicans/conservatives/Tea Partiers.
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